Fun With Numbers: Superior stats preview of Florida at Texas A&M

Howdy and welcome again to Fun With Numbers, a sophisticated stats take a look at the Texas A&M Football group. We’re going to maintain rolling onward and attempt to ignore all of the rat poison and fancy numbers subsequent to the group’s identify, and focus as a substitute on the numbers everyone knows and love. Let’s get to it.

It was a sluggish begin, however the Aggies put the sport out of attain this time as a substitute of letting their opponent grasp round, like they did in opposition to Auburn a few weeks in the past. Despite their inconsistencies, the Aggie offense was extra environment friendly and extra explosive, and regardless of a tough first quarter, the Aggie protection brought on extra havoc and ultimately simply suffocated the Bulldog offense.

The Aggies proceed to climb the charts as they win ball video games and spherical out into the group we’re prone to see the remainder of the season. There is quite a bit to love and loads of issues that most likely have to be mounted if the Aggies need to stretch this profitable streak into the second half of the season. This week they host a Florida squad coming off their greatest (and second) win of the season. It’s been a tricky schedule for the Gators up to now in 2025 and it doesn’t get a lot simpler, but when Billy Napier needs yet one more yr in Gainesville he’s going to should work some magic within the second half of the common season. The Aggies are a 7.5-point favourite in Vegas, the SP+ likes the Ags by 10 factors, and the FEI predicts one thing related. Let’s take a more in-depth look.

Aggie Offense vs Gator Defense

At this level, we’re seeing the Aggies carry alongside the run sport that was so sturdy for them in 2024 to enhance the passing sport that has developed with KC and Craver because the group’s high threats. The Aggies nonetheless aren’t significantly explosive on the bottom, however that’s the very last thing I’m apprehensive about with an offense that may grind you down up entrance and hit some massive performs excessive when wanted. If the Aggies can get just a bit extra consistency from Marcel Reed and a few of the different receiver choices within the subsequent 7 video games, this offense goes to be very troublesome to cease.

They’re dealing with a Gator protection that (at the very least statistically) mirrors Auburn’s protection from a few weeks in the past. They’re not as sturdy up entrance because the Tigers, however the secondary has been way more disruptive up to now this season, even when they share the weak spot of being vulnerable to giving up massive performs. They’ve hauled in at the very least one interception in every of their final three video games and had two final week in opposition to the Horns, in addition to a season-high of six sacks in opposition to Arch Manning.

Aggie Defense vs Gator Offense

Much was fabricated from a few of the early season “struggles” that we noticed from this Aggie Defense, but it surely’s rapidly trending in the direction of one of many high models Elko has fielded right here at A&M, and that’s clearly saying one thing. They’re top-of-the-line groups within the nation at getting off the sphere on third Downs, make life hell for opposing QBs, and the secondary continues to make nice strides because the finish of final season. Teams are nonetheless discovering some success at instances shifting the ball on the bottom, however general, this squad is extremely enjoyable to look at as an Aggie fan.

The Gator offense has had its struggles this season. DJ Lagway has not precisely been the Heisman candidate that folk in Gainesville had hoped for, however they’ve discovered some good success operating the ball with Jadan Baugh. Last week was their first sport in opposition to an FBS opponent the place they scored greater than 20 factors — and it was Lagway’s greatest sport, QBR-wise, all season. It’s attainable they’re turning a nook.

This matchup feels way more prone to find yourself like Auburn than it does Mississippi State doesn’t it? Until this offense can put collectively 4 quarters of excellent soccer it’s all the time going to be regarding enjoying in opposition to a very good protection who will help maintain issues shut. This offensive line has carried out a very good job in cross safety this season, so I don’t count on Reed to be pressured on 60% of snaps or something outrageous like that. Hopefully he has the time he must make performs downfield. If the protection can include the Florida floor sport and restrict the large, gashing runs, I’m undecided it is a Florida group that’s constructed to outlive frequent passing down conditions (at present 93rd in Passing Down SR and 116th in Passing Down Explosiveness).

My Prediction: Like I mentioned, this seems like one the place the opponent can grasp round with you, and I don’t like the concept of Lagway and freshman phenom Dallas Wilson having a possibility to do some heartbreaking late within the sport. But I’ll nonetheless decide the Ags to win, 21-13.

Regardless of how this sport shakes out, the Aggies can be getting into essentially the most troublesome a part of their schedule beginning subsequent week with a visit to Fayetteville. It’s much less regarding than it was at the beginning of the season, but it surely kicks off a 3 sport highway stretch that options journeys to Baton Rouge and Columbia, MO (a bye week is sandwiched between the 2 matchups with the Tigers). Based on present SP+ rankings, that is how the remainder of the Aggie season might shake out.

I don’t have any extra so as to add to that, however the Aggies could possibly be favored by a landing or extra in 2 of these video games, slight highway canine in 2 of them, and doubtlessly a decide ‘em to end the season in Austin. A collapse is on the table, sure. It always is. But man, you want to talk about a year where your own fate is right there for the taking…

Trust me, I’m not getting forward of myself. I drew this up at the start of the yr, and it’s nonetheless true.

But additionally, it’s more fun to believe… isn’t it?

Thanks for coming again this week, we’ll see you subsequent week to speak about Petrino and the Pigs.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know the place to go away ‘em.