Fun With Numbers: Superior stats preview of Texas A&M at LSU

Howdy and welcome again to Fun With Numbers. It’s the top of October, the Aggies, the numbers and The Pulse are all enjoyable to have a look at proper now… and none of us know what to do about it. Let’s speak about it.

Well, the offense definitely exceeded expectations, didn’t they? It was one of the crucial full items we’ve seen from that group, with the Aggies handing over a 57% Success Rate when working the soccer and Marcel having his finest sport of the season primarily based on QBR. It’s precisely the kind of efficiency you need to see towards a protection that had completed little or no within the weeks main as much as the sport.

Speaking of, it was a tricky displaying from the Aggie protection that had been so sturdy in latest weeks. I knew Arkansas would transfer the ball effectively, they’ve completed it towards nearly everybody this season. Still, the explosive runs stay an enormous downside for this protection and it made the sport much more attention-grabbing than it wanted to be. Is this an indication that the protection is beginning to falter because the season will get late? Or is it extra of an outlier?

Below, I (in a short time and roughly) charted the opponent’s whole Success Rate vs Explosiveness for every sport this season. It positively seems like a one off primarily based extra on the standard of opponent they have been going through, climate and different elements, in addition to simply taking part in poorly.

The Aggies take their undefeated file for one more street take a look at, this time underneath the intense lights of Death Valley. The Tigers haven’t fairly lived as much as their preseason expectations (The SP+ projected them to be eleventh within the nation at the beginning of the season), having dropped video games towards Ole Miss and Vanderbilt thus far. The Aggies are a few 2.5 level favourite in Vegas, and the SP+ and FEI each challenge the Aggies to win by 1 and three factors, respectively.

Aggie Offense vs Tiger Defense

The Aggie offense continues to attain simply sufficient factors whether or not the protection exhibits up or not. The passing sport continues to impress and the working sport is beginning to catch as much as what we anticipated following final yr, though we’ll in all probability need to withhold judgment on how dropping Moss impacts the crew till after this offense performs a protection with a pulse once more. I’m not attempting to alarm anyone, however that is the best ranked Aggie offense within the SP+ since a younger Jonathan Football was taking snaps. The Offensive Passing PPA at .48 is the best they’ve ever had, by a large margin. This unit is nice, even with a few of its inconsistencies. Enjoy it.

The LSU protection has largely been accountable for protecting their crew in video games this season. They’ve held opponents to 10 factors or much less in 5 of their 7 video games (sure, the video games they misplaced have been when the protection gave up 24 and 31 factors). They’re superb at limiting explosiveness and protecting issues in entrance of them. While the Front 7 doesn’t generate quite a lot of sacks, the secondary is prime ten within the nation in havoc created (though a part of that’s primarily based on one sport the place they hauled in 5 INTs towards DJ Lagway). They’ve been fairly good in Blake Baker’s second yr as DC, however the cracks may need began displaying final week towards the Commodores, who rushed for 239 yards and three TDs towards the Tigers.

Aggie Defense vs Tiger Offense

How dangerous was the Aggie efficiency in Fayetteville final weekend? Well, the Aggies fell out of the Top 20 in DSP+, are actually one of many worst defenses within the nation towards explosive runs, and Coach Elko refused to call a defensive participant of the sport. People shall be involved about this protection’s capacity to journey, however I’d level out that the 2 offenses they confronted on the street this season thus far are two of the perfect offenses within the nation, no matter the place you look. I select to consider they’re extra of what they confirmed us in earlier matchups, an environment friendly protection that will get after the QB and performs effectively on the again finish.

They’ll face a Tiger offense that hasn’t discovered its footing in 2025 like most individuals anticipated. Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t fairly been the Heisman hopeful many anticipated him to be, and it’s onerous to say if that’s as a result of the working sport has been even much less productive than final yr, the offensive line is battling youth and harm, the revamped receiving crew isn’t as explosive as hoped, or some lingering offseason concern. Either method, the LSU offense doesn’t appear to current fairly the identical problem that the Razorbacks did final week.

It’s an eerie feeling being a favourite at Death Valley, even when it’s only a slight one. The Tiger protection is extra consistent with the Auburn squad that held the Aggies to simply 16 factors a couple of weeks in the past, and even when they haven’t reached their potential this season, the offense has all of the means to maneuver the ball successfully. I feel the Aggie protection goes to reset after final week’s powerful displaying, and LSU will not be precisely constructed to push them in the identical method Arkansas was (Mobile QB with a strong run sport round him). The offense must proceed to run the ball like they’ve the final couple of weeks, and Marcel has to deal with the ball. They might not put up 30+ like they’ve the previous couple of matchups, and that’s okay as a result of I don’t suppose they’ll have to.

My Prediction: I feel in some unspecified time in the future, the Aggies will journey up, and it’s more likely to be in one in every of these final 3 street video games. But presently, for some purpose, I’m extra fearful about that taking place within the subsequent Tiger sport than I’m this one. I’m guessing it’s a little bit of a slog however the Aggies win 27-21 and we will proceed to observe The Pulse on Wednesday nights with a smile on our face.

As all the time, I recognize you displaying up for our little stats deep dive each week. We’ll take a break for the bye week and are available again to speak concerning the Tigers ROUND 3 in November.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know the place to depart ‘em.