College soccer Week 10 preview: Street exams with playoff implications

Every fall, we get a university soccer weekend that appears strong on paper and seems spectacular as a result of, oh look, there are heaps of ranked groups on the highway! The first Saturday of November affords a trio of ranked-versus-ranked video games, however it additionally provides us 10 different ranked groups leaving residence. All are favored, however there’s solely a 9% probability all of them win, per SP+. On common, three will lose.

Sure, some highway groups — Notre Dame (at Boston College), Memphis (at Rice), Indiana (at a flagging Maryland) — are most likely safer than others, however the distribution of upsets could have a huge effect on a College Football Playoff race that’s about to choose up steam. It is November, in spite of everything, and the primary CFP rankings come out subsequent week. It would damage fairly a bit to stumble earlier than the race actually will get going, however a couple of groups virtually actually will.

Keep your head on a swivel — there are upsets on the way in which. Using playoff tiers as our information, this is every little thing it’s worthwhile to observe in a spooky and mysterious Week 10.

All instances are ET, and all video games are on Saturday until in any other case famous.

Playoff tiers

In twiddling with CFP odds this week — each these of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and my experimental odds based mostly on SP+ — I found two issues: (1) Creating a single common from these two sources made numerous sense to my eyes and smoothed out some tough edges I discovered in each units of odds, and (2) that common neatly breaks groups into playoff tiers.

The three remaining unbeaten SEC/Big Ten groups have common odds of creating the CFP properly over 90%, then a second tier of six groups is between 54% and 71%, a 3rd tier of 4 groups is between 36% and 50%, a large fourth tier of hopefuls is between 5% and 25%, and, after all, a fifth tier of Group of 5 groups is primarily preventing over a single bid.

Week 10 may not have an effect on these in Tiers 1 and a couple of a lot, barring an enormous highway upset, however let’s stroll by way of this week’s slate, tier-by-tier.

Tier 1

Indiana (8-0, 96.4% common playoff odds)
Ohio State (7-0, 94.8%)
Texas A&M (8-0, 93.2%)

At this level, any of those groups may need to lose 3 times to fall out of CFP rivalry. Texas A&M nonetheless has to journey to Missouri and Texas and host an athletic South Carolina squad, however it’s protected to say these groups are in nice form. The Aggies are off this week, and the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are favored by 20-plus factors.

Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (midday, Fox)

Penn State performed properly in a decent loss at Iowa two weeks in the past and nonetheless has loads of top-end expertise. The Nittany Lions are simply ok that Ohio State would possibly do what it has accomplished to Ohio, Washington and others: Trade some blows and let the opponent grasp round for 1 / 4 or two earlier than hitting the accelerator.

Current line: OSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 14.7

No. 2 Indiana at Maryland (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Maryland enters November having collapsed as soon as once more. The Terps are 21-5 in September beneath Mike Locksley and 15-28 thereafter. So, this is not one of the best time to be enjoying a workforce that simply moved to first in SP+. Indiana ranks first nationally in factors per drive and second in factors allowed. The protection is selecting up some accidents, but when the Hoosiers deliver even their B-game, they’re going to cruise.

Current line: Indiana -21.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 16.1 | FPI projection: Indiana by 17.1

Tier 2

Alabama (7-1, 71.2%)
Ole Miss (7-1, 70.6%)
Oregon (7-1, 67.9%)
Georgia (6-1, 61.4%)
Georgia Tech (8-0, 60.0%)
BYU (8-0, 54.0%)

Here, we get unbeaten Big 12 and ACC groups and a few one-loss SEC and Big Ten groups. If you add these groups’ playoff odds, you will see that on common, about 4 of those six will make the CFP. Only three play in Week 10, and two are single-digit favorites.

No. 8 Georgia Tech at NC State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)

NC State is bodily, randomly explosive and harmful regardless of struggling 4 losses in 5 video games. But will probably be tough making stops towards a Tech offense that may beat you with both huge performs or relentless effectivity. Quarterback and resident powerful man Haynes King will get the good thing about the doubt at this level, even when he appears to be like like a grizzled 20-year veteran each time he will get up after successful.

Current line: Tech -5.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 5.6

Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Teams have performed properly beneath interim coaches this season — and there have been a lot of them — and with Florida’s stellar protection, it would not take many breaks for the Gators to make this a recreation. But contemplating Georgia spots each opponent a multiscore lead after which wins anyway, it is exhausting to assume Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs will not discover a means.

Current line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 10.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 9.3

South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss (7 p.m., ESPN)

Ole Miss is in improbable playoff form, however the Rebels have not gained an SEC title in 62 years, and so they haven’t got a ton of margin for error in that hunt. South Carolina is a terrifying underdog with the uncooked, particular person expertise and athleticism it boasts — simply ask Alabama — however that dreadful offensive line will most likely forestall the Gamecocks from making a sustained problem.

Current line: Rebels -12.5 (down from -14.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 9.9

Tier 3

Texas Tech (7-1, 50.4%)
Miami (6-1, 45.8%)
Vanderbilt (7-1, 42.2%)
Notre Dame (5-2, 36.6%)

On common, two of those groups — a one-loss Big 12 workforce, a one-loss ACC workforce, a one-loss SEC workforce with a weaker résumé and a two-loss Notre Dame workforce with a terrific power of schedule (that can dissipate considerably in November) — will make it. You might make the case that Texas Tech ought to have been in Tier 2, due to its 50% odds and the truth that the Red Raiders’ lone loss got here with out beginning quarterback Behren Morton, however we’ll stick them right here for now. They might face a stiff take a look at in Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday, whereas Vandy is an underdog in Austin, Texas. This tier might see a shakeup Saturday.

No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (midday, ABC)

At 7-1 and ranked ninth within the nation, having narrowly escaped towards Missouri final week, Clark Lea’s unbelievable Vanderbilt Commodores stay one of many major characters of the 2025 season. Diego Pavia guides an offense that ranks seventh in success price* and factors per drive, the protection that ranked 124th in defensive SP+ simply two seasons in the past now ranks thirty second, and the Commodores nonetheless have a probable mulligan of their pocket heading into November.

(* Success price: How ceaselessly an offense is gaining 50% of needed yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

The Commodores will not be the principle characters in Austin on Saturday, nevertheless. Those honors as a substitute go to their host, the preseason No. 1 workforce that has appeared like a playoff workforce, at most, as soon as this season.

It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for Texas. After needing extra time (and a few heroic punt returns from Ryan Niblett) to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State — that are a mixed 0-9 in SEC play — the previous two weeks, the Horns should look the half Saturday, after which once more in two weeks at Georgia, after which once more two weeks after that towards Texas A&M. (Technically, they may lose to Vandy however nonetheless get in with top-10 wins over UGA and A&M. But that is a reasonably tenuous path.) Defense and particular groups have carried Texas so far as they’ll. Now, the offense has to indicate up.

It has to indicate up with or with out Arch Manning. He left the MSU recreation in extra time due to a concussion and is listed as questionable. Backup QB Matthew Caldwell, a journeyman who was a redshirt freshman backup at Gardner-Webb when Manning was lighting up defenses as a highschool senior at New Orleans’ Isidore Newman School and incomes an almost good recruiting rating, threw the game-winning TD cross towards the Bulldogs. If he has to begin Saturday, he has to high what Manning has accomplished up to now with a operating recreation that has been a stunning (and injury-laden) dud and an offensive line that hasn’t proved prepared for prime time. One means or one other, the Horns should transfer the ball and rating factors, even in doubtlessly sloppy situations.

The protection will nonetheless assist. For pretty much as good as Vandy’s offense has been this season, Texas’ D is one of the best the Commodores have confronted, and towards three different top-15 defenses, the Commodores have averaged a merely respectable 20.7 factors per recreation (towards everybody else: 49.0 factors per recreation). Texas most likely will not have to attain round 40 to win Saturday, however the Horns will both begin wanting just like the contenders they had been speculated to be, or they may bow out of the playoff hunt.

Current line: Texas -2.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 2.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 5.7

No. 13 Texas Tech at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)

OK, no extra getting damage, Behren Morton. Texas Tech misplaced its beginning quarterback for half or all of 4 video games and went 3-1, dropping solely a heartbreaker to Arizona State, however now backup Will Hammond is out due to a season-ending harm. Third-stringer Mitch Griffis was wonderful towards Oklahoma State final week, however that hardly counts. Morton ought to return Saturday, and he wants to stay within the lineup.

Of course, even with a 100% wholesome Morton, the Red Raiders might have their palms full this weekend, as Kansas State is likely one of the nation’s hottest groups. The protection has been strong, however essentially the most enchancment has come from the offense — quarterback Avery Johnson, particularly.

Avery Johnson, first 4 video games: 48.0 Total QBR, 60.6% completion price, 11.1 yards per completion; 21.5 non-sack speeding yards per recreation

Johnson, final 4 video games: 80.5 Total QBR, 65.5% completion price, 12.7 yards per completion; 53.0 non-sack speeding yards per recreation

Johnson is utilizing his legs extra, and it is serving to the run and passing video games as star operating again Dylan Edwards stays out. Tech, nevertheless, has by far one of the best protection the Wildcats have confronted this season. Losing sort out Skyler Gill-Howard to harm damage, however linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey are enjoying like All-Americans, and the secondary is infinitely higher than it was final 12 months. Tech is favored for a motive, however that is the worst time to play Okay-State.

Current line: Tech -7.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 12.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.6

No. 10 Miami at SMU (midday, ESPN)

For half-hour towards Stanford, Miami backed up some issues I’ve been having in regards to the Hurricanes. They run and cross effectively, however a scarcity of huge performs forces them to plod down the sector, and early drives stalled through a missed subject aim and turnover on downs. Carson Beck & Co. had been tied with the Cardinal 7-7 within the third quarter.

The Hurricanes then hit the gasoline and cruised 42-7, after all. But droughts and random errors — a penalty right here, an interception there — are worrisome. And if SMU’s offense weren’t such a multitude, I’d discuss myself right into a Mustangs upset. They have overachieved towards defensive projections for 5 of the previous six video games, however the offense ranks 124th in three-and-out price and 114th in turnovers. They can nonetheless be fairly explosive, however the errors, from quarterback Kevin Jennings and others, are an issue. And Miami’s protection, with Rueben Bain Jr. up entrance and slot nook Keionte Scott and security Jakobe Thomas within the again, is one of the best they’ve confronted.

SMU continues to be 3-1 in convention play. An upset in doubtlessly wet situations would preserve the Mustangs within the ACC title hunt. But that might require a degree of high quality they have not constantly proven this 12 months.

Current line: Miami -11.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 8.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.3

No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

BC is coming off of its first respectable efficiency in practically two months — a aggressive loss to Louisville — however the Notre Dame protection has allowed simply 12.8 factors per recreation over its previous 4 contests (regardless of enjoying two groups within the offensive SP+ high 10). And if operating again Jeremiyah Love’s 200-yard recreation towards USC is any indication, we would see a Heisman push from him in November. The Irish ought to romp.

Current line: Irish -28.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 29.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 29.3

Tier 4

Louisville (6-1, 26.1%)
Texas (6-2, 26.1%)
Virginia (7-1, 21.0%)
Tennessee (6-2, 19.1%)
Cincinnati (7-1, 18.4%)
Oklahoma (6-2, 15.7%)
Utah (6-2, 14.8%)
Houston (7-1, 14.3%)
Washington (6-2, 14.2%)
Michigan (6-2, 12.5%)
Missouri (6-2, 11.9%)
USC (5-2, 10.6%)
Iowa (6-2, 7.2%)
Pitt (6-2, 6.7%)
Nebraska (6-2, 4.5%)

This is the Desperation Tier. On common, solely about two of those 15 groups will make it, and apart from the ACC/Big 12 groups that might nonetheless attain their convention title video games, nobody right here can survive one other loss and really feel assured.

Here’s the place the actual motion is in Week 10. In addition to Texas-Vandy, we get two Tier 4 semi-elimination video games, plus a Utah-Cincy recreation that can assist to find out the hierarchy within the Big 12 race.

No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Last season, former Oklahoma quarterback Josh Heupel and his Tennessee Volunteers welcomed the Sooners to the SEC with a 25-15 defeat. This season, he’ll have an opportunity to all however get rid of the Sooners from the CFP race. And as with final week’s Auburn-Arkansas recreation, these groups are enjoying totally different sports activities. Oklahoma’s SEC video games have averaged 40.8 complete factors, and Tennessee’s have averaged 74.4. The Vols have not allowed fewer than 31 factors in league play, and the Sooners have not topped 26.

This is kind of the strength-versus-strength and weakness-versus-weakness matchup.

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s offense: eighth in success price, eleventh in factors per drive

Oklahoma’s protection: first in success price, fifth in factors per drive

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma’s offense: fiftieth in success price, seventieth in factors per drive

Tennessee’s protection: 106th in success price, ninety fifth in factors per drive

OU’s protection is superior, however it’s noteworthy that the Sooners have performed just one top-40 offense (per SP+) and gave up 431 yards and 34 factors to Ole Miss. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss punished the Sooners together with his legs in a means that UT’s Joey Aguilar most likely will not, however Aguilar avoids sacks and boasts two big-play receivers in Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews.

Oklahoma’s offense has underachieved towards projections for 5 straight video games however bought an intriguing increase final week from operating again Xavier Robinson, who gained 136 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns. Quarterback John Mateer has been carrying a heavy load — which is tough with an injured hand — and assist from the run recreation can be welcome. Of course, Tennessee’s protection tends to be fairly accommodating. The Vols gave up 34 factors final week to a Kentucky offense that was averaging 15.8 in convention play.

Current line: Vols -3.5 | SP+ projection: Sooners by 1.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 3.3

No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Utah evidently responds properly to losses. When the Utes fell to Texas Tech in Week 4, they rotated and walloped West Virginia and Arizona State by a mixed 90-24. After they dropped a detailed one to BYU, they trounced Colorado 53-7 with their backup quarterback.

Of course, to reply properly to a loss, you need to lose first, and Utah cannot afford to do this once more. But realizing backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin is able to operating the present like he did final week is sweet, even when he went simply 10-for-22 passing. Starter Devon Dampier is anticipated to return, which might be good as a result of he is a extra environment friendly (albeit much less explosive) passer; sort out Dontay Corleone, finish Jalen Hunt and Cincinnati defend the run much better than the cross.

Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby instructions a balanced offense that may exploit weaknesses through both the run or cross. Most groups run towards Utah, because the Utes are eighth in yards allowed per dropback and sack price however fifty fifth in yards allowed per carry (not together with sacks). The Bearcats’ main rusher, Evan Pryor, is out, however they nonetheless have Tawee Walker (extra environment friendly however much less explosive than Pryor), and Sorsby picks up numerous first downs. His elite elusiveness might give the Bearcats choices.

SP+ and these playoff tiers counsel unbeaten BYU and one-loss Texas Tech are atop the Big 12 favorites listing; the winner of this one can be No. 3 and awaiting an opportunity to maneuver up.

Current line: Utah -10.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 9.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 9.7

No. 23 USC at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., NBC)

No, these two groups usually are not more likely to attain the CFP — they’re every close to the underside of Tier 4 — however this one ought to nonetheless be fulfilling. The workforce of the Nineteen Nineties is internet hosting the workforce of the 2000s in a enjoyable helmet recreation, and 4 of 5 video games between Nebraska’s Matt Rhule and USC’s Lincoln Riley have been determined by one rating (all gained by Riley).

Nebraska’s protection permits solely 4.6 yards per dropback (ninth nationally), whereas USC’s offense averages 9.5 (third). Jayden Maiava accomplished solely 22 of 42 passes towards Notre Dame with two picks, and NU has an opportunity to win this matchup, however even with a few injured operating backs and linemen, USC runs the ball properly. The Huskers’ run protection is suspect.

Nebraska’s offense has been exhausting to determine all season. The Huskers rank fifteenth in success price, and Dylan Raiola is finishing 73% of his passes, however iffy explosiveness and poor pink zone operation have held them again. USC would not produce good effectivity or explosiveness numbers on protection, however the Trojans survive with pink zone stops and turnovers.

Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 1.7 | FPI projection: USC by 5.9

No. 15 Virginia at California (3:45 p.m., ESPN2)

Virginia has gained its previous 4 video games by a mixed 14 factors, three in extra time. We understand how these runs have a tendency to finish — rudely and all of a sudden — however with a mix of an environment friendly run recreation and powerful cross rush, the Cavaliers might deal with a Cal workforce with a poor run protection and poor cross safety. If Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time to throw, nevertheless, the Golden Bears might finish the streak.

Current line: UVA -4.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 7.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 4.7

No. 16 Louisville at Virginia Tech (3 p.m., The CW)

Virginia Tech has gained three of 5 beneath interim coach Philip Montgomery, controlling the ball with a very good run recreation and forcing plenty of third-and-longs on protection. Louisville defends the run properly, nevertheless, and if operating again Isaac Brown picks up the place he left off final week (14 carries, 205 yards), the Cards will not have many third downs to fret about.

Current line: Louisville -10.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 15.3 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.4

West Virginia at No. 22 Houston (midday, FS1)

Since shedding to Texas Tech, Houston has overachieved towards SP+ projections for 3 straight video games. The Cougars are defending the run and speeding the passer properly; WVU cannot run the ball or defend the passer. Willie Fritz has engineered a improbable second-year turnaround, and November will inform us if his Coogs can threaten for the Big 12 title.

Current line: Houston -13.5 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: Houston by 18.1 | FPI projection: Houston by 10.0

Pitt at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ACCN)

Installing a freshman at QB is often an indication that you simply’re punting in your season, however Pitt put Mason Heintschel in and have become a playoff contender — Pitt gained 4 October ACC video games by a median of 44-21. The Panthers ought to deal with Stanford, although the 2 ACC groups which have visited the Cardinal this season each massively underachieved towards projections and misplaced.

Current line: Pitt -14.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 22.1 | FPI projection: Pitt by 7.0

Purdue at No. 21 Michigan (7 p.m., BTN)

Michigan’s offense has scored 13 factors in every of its two losses and has averaged 34.3 in six wins. The latter is much extra doubtless than the previous right here, however Purdue is more and more aggressive, with two coulda-woulda-shoulda losses in three weeks. Michigan is three video games (and three projected wins) from a doable win-and-you’re-in recreation towards Ohio State.

Current line: Michigan -21.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 21.7 | FPI projection: Michigan by 21.6

Tier (Group of) 5

North Texas (7-1, 15.3%)
James Madison (7-1, 14.9%)
USF (6-2, 14.1%)
Memphis (7-1, 14.0%)
Boise State (6-2, 9.0%)
San Diego State (6-1, 5.6%)
Navy (7-0, 5.3%)

Unless we get some wild “three- or four-loss Big 12/ACC champion” situation, the Group of 5 is most certainly getting just one CFP workforce, and with eight groups all with common odds between 5% and 15%, this race is delightfully unsettled. Tulane fell ignominiously to UTSA on Thursday, however three of these groups are comfy favorites this weekend, and two face off early Saturday in Denton.

Navy at North Texas (midday, ESPN2)

It feels odd that Navy’s playoff odds are so low regardless of coming into November unbeaten, however the principle motive is the upcoming schedule: The Midshipmen can be underdogs in no less than three of their subsequent 4 video games, together with Saturday’s journey to Denton.

Navy’s offense is as superior as ever; the Middies are fourth nationally in factors per drive, and Blake Horvath stays a particular possibility quarterback. But their protection ranks 88th in factors allowed per drive, and towards the 2 top-100 groups (per SP+) they’ve confronted, they gained by a mixed three factors.

Each of Navy’s November opponents has an superior offense, beginning with North Texas. The Mean Green are fifth in offensive SP+ and have scored no less than 33 factors in each recreation. They suffered a short, turnover-based implosion towards USF of their lone loss, however quarterback Drew Mestemaker keys a relentless passing recreation, and Mean Green operating backs, led by Caleb Hawkins, common 6.0 yards per carry.

UNT defends the cross properly, however the Mean Green are simply 113th in speeding success price allowed. Navy will doubtless dominate the ball and preserve the possession rely down, however to stay unbeaten, the Midshipmen will nonetheless must make a cease or two.

Current line: UNT -6.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 5.5 | FPI projection: UNT by 8.5

Wyoming at San Diego State (7 p.m., CBSSN)

The run continues for San Diego State: Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have gained 5 in a row by a median rating of 30-7, and although the war-of-attrition fashion is not a thriller, they’re projected favorites over every of their subsequent two opponents earlier than a large go to from Boise State in Week 12. But they first should preserve their kind towards a Wyoming workforce that has gained two of three and is all the time up for a rock battle.

Current line: SDSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 15.2 | FPI projection: SDSU by 9.0

No. 25 Memphis at Rice (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)

In its first 12 months beneath option-meister Scott Abell, Rice has been about what we anticipated: not nice however randomly harmful. The 4-4 Owls upset UConn final week and now face a Memphis workforce that has given up some huge run performs at instances. Memphis’ offense might be too good, however the Tigers cannot afford a letdown now that they are again in nice form within the CFP race.

Current line: Memphis -13.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 20.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 18.8

Fresno State at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)

If the highest groups within the American Conference preserve taking one another out, two-loss Boise State could be poised to swoop in and snag the playoff bid. But the Broncos must preserve successful. Fresno State’s offense has averaged solely 16.3 factors over its previous 4 video games, however the Bulldogs defend the run properly and drive turnovers. That might preserve issues shut for some time.

Current line: BSU -17.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 16.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 18.8

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Week 10 chaos superfecta

We’re once more utilizing this area to will chaos into existence, 4 fastidiously curated video games with fairly huge level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. The Big 12 was sadly unwilling to play the upset recreation final week, so we fell again beneath .500 (4-5) for the season.

This time, we’re leaning into the “ranked teams on the road” factor: SP+ says that there is solely a 43% probability that Georgia Tech (73% win chance towards Maryland), Texas Tech (78% towards Kansas State), Louisville (83% towards Virginia Tech) and Pitt (92% towards Stanford) all win. Let’s take down a ranked workforce (or, in Pitt’s case, a merely extremely popular workforce).

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Week 10 playlist

We coated much more video games than typical above, however for every window, from Friday night by way of late Saturday, this is no less than yet another recreation it’s best to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend.

Friday night

North Carolina at Syracuse (7:30 p.m., ESPN). UNC has gone from getting blown out by everybody to dropping two straight heartbreakers. That’s technically enchancment, although it most likely would not really feel prefer it. The Tar Heels’ protection is bettering rapidly and now faces a Syracuse assault that has averaged 12.5 factors per recreation since QB Steve Angeli’s harm. UNC has to attain, too, however most likely not that a lot.

Current line: Syracuse -2.5 | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 5.3 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 4.7

Early Saturday

Duke at Clemson (midday, ACCN). Duke is 3-1 in ACC play and is a projected favourite in each remaining recreation after this. An upset would place the Blue Devils fairly properly. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik is racing to return, however this recreation will most likely be decided by what number of huge performs Duke can generate (and what number of turnovers it might keep away from) towards a disappointing however proficient Tigers protection.

Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 2.0 | FPI projection: Clemson by 2.2

Army at Air Force (midday, CBS). Army has gained six of its previous eight on this bitter rivalry. Air Force hasn’t topped 17 factors on the Black Knights since 2016, however the Falcons additionally have not scored fewer than 24 this season. Quarterback Liam Szarka is hovering, and Army’s defensive entrance is banged up. And as a result of Air Force’s protection completely stinks, this may not be the standard Air Force-Army rock battle.

Current line: Air Force -1.5 (flipped from Army -1.5) | SP+ projection: Air Force by 0.2 | FPI projection: Army by 1.2

Saturday afternoon

New Mexico at UNLV (3 p.m., Mountain West Network). Two enjoyable, optimistic groups enjoying enjoyable, optimistic (and sometimes defense-optional) soccer with enjoyable, optimistic quarterbacks (New Mexico’s Jack Layne, UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea). You may need to observe this one in your laptop computer — which is unlucky as a result of it is good quadbox-viewing materials — however it is going to most likely be price it.

Current line: UNLV -3.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.0 | FPI projection: UNLV by 5.4

Saturday night

Wake Forest at Florida State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). FSU has misplaced 4 straight, and religion in Mike Norvell is hanging by a thread. The Seminoles are proficient sufficient to be favored right here, however Wake Forest’s protection is great, and the Demon Deacons have overachieved towards SP+ projections for 4 straight video games. They have all the boldness FSU lacks in the meanwhile.

Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 8.2 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.2

Late Saturday

Hawai’i at San José State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). San Diego State is atop the “pleasant surprises” listing within the Mountain West, however Hawai’i is shut. The Rainbow Warriors are two factors from an unbeaten document in convention play, and SP+ provides them a 20% probability of reaching 9-3 general. That would require a win right here towards a snake-bitten 2-5 SJSU workforce that has misplaced 4 video games by solely 15 mixed factors.

Current line: SJSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Hawai’i by 1.7 | FPI projection: SJSU by 4.0

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s as soon as once more save a shoutout for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. Here are three video games it’s best to observe.

Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 9 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). We once more verify in on the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletics Conference, aka essentially the most hypnotic race in soccer. There’s a four-way tie atop the WIAC at 3-1, and people 4 groups are conveniently pairing off! No. 10 La Crosse is favored over No. 23 Stout in a single matchup, however the headliner is in River Falls, the place the host Falcons are in search of their first win over Whitewater since 2001 and their first playoff bid since 1996. Their previous 4 losses within the collection have all been painfully shut; this is able to be a good time to lastly get one over the road.

SP+ projection: UWW by 1.4.

FCS: Dartmouth at No. 15 Harvard (3 p.m., ESPN+). Harvard is simply fifteenth within the polls regardless of successful six video games by a median of 43-12. SP+, nevertheless, loves the Crimson, rating them behind solely Tarleton State and mighty North Dakota State. We’ll doubtlessly discover out who’s proper within the playoffs, however within the meantime, that is the closest take a look at Harvard will face till the season finale at Yale. Dartmouth is 5-1 and upset Yale three weeks in the past; protection has lengthy been the Big Green’s calling card, and theirs is great this 12 months.

SP+ projection: Harvard by 13.3.

Division II: No. 7 Colorado State-Pueblo at No. 6 Western Colorado (3 p.m., RMAC Network). We have a pair of top-15 matchups in Division II: No. 3 West Florida is a slight favourite at No. 15 Delta State, and out West, this one might have main playoff seeding implications. Western Colorado is unbeaten and dominant, and CSU-Pueblo has gained its previous 4 by a median of 51-12. These two defenses create a great deal of unfavorable performs — first to 10 TFLs wins.

Top-10 Battle within the Bowl @MountaineerFB @RMAC_SPORTS @CollegeGameDay @PatMcAfeeShow @ESPN_BillC @FOXSports @BNKonFOX @espn @D2Football #7723ft #ThinAirCrew #BringGameDay2Gunni #BringYourMOJO

— Western Colorado Mountaineers (@WCUMountaineers) October 30, 2025

SP+ projection: Western Colorado by 6.0.