Fun With Numbers: Superior stats preview of Texas A&M at Missouri

Howdy and welcome again to Fun With Numbers, the weekly Good Bull Hunting deep dive into superior statistics. It’s November, the Aggies management their future, and have three convention opponents left on the schedule. What might go flawed?

The Aggies had a much-deserved bye week final Saturday, however the week earlier than… bloodshed. Despite having one of many worst 2nd Quarters they might have presumably put collectively (punt blocked for a security, 2 interceptions, 35% Success Rate from the Aggie Offense and a protection that allowed a 1.63 explosiveness ranking) the Aggies crushed the Tigers in Baton Rouge 49-25.

Brian Kelly has been despatched packing, the Aggies stay undefeated, and now make their strategy to the ultimate hurdle within the middle-of-the-season highway journey trifecta. Let’s discuss Missouri.

The third Tiger group the Texas Aggies have tangled with this season are thought-about to be the most effective primarily based on the superior stats rankings. Missouri enters the matchup 6-2, with one rating losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt making an attempt to derail a powerful begin to the season. Vegas has the Ags as a 6.5 level favourite, whereas the SP+ and FEI image it being a lot nearer (2-4 level Aggie win). Let’s take a better look.

Aggie Offense vs Tiger Defense

One factor we all know for positive at this level, the Aggie offense travels. They’ve put up 40+ in all three highway video games this season, and are averaging 35 factors/sport in SEC Play. They’re environment friendly, with way more potential explosiveness within the passing sport than they’ve had in a really very long time. The run sport is again to the usual set in 2024, and due to the power of this OL and his legs, Reed is ready to keep on his toes, throwing downfield even when groups convey strain. Very few defenses this season have been constructed to sluggish them down, however the unit ready for them in Columbia might be able to just do that.

The Tiger protection jogs my memory quite a lot of the Aggies to this point this season. Really sound up entrance, environment friendly, and likes to get after the quarterback and create havoc. However, in the event that they don’t get dwelling within the go rush, or if backs/receivers get free within the second stage, the protection hasn’t all the time been capable of maintain up. Similarly they’re not lighting the world on fireplace in relation to turnovers, however they’re so much higher within the pink zone than the Aggies have been (rating thirtieth in Red Zone scoring proportion). Overall, it is a actually good protection, the most effective the Aggies have confronted since Auburn not less than.

Aggie Defense vs Tiger Offense

By breaking down the Missouri Defense, I really feel like I coated the Aggie squad fairly nicely. Strong entrance that’s inflicting quite a lot of issues for opposing QBs and a secondary that’s enjoying higher than any in latest reminiscence. In fact, A&M’s protection might be two video games the place the again finish performed actually poorly in opposition to the run (UTSA and Arkansas) from being thought-about elite. This group is outstanding at third down and forcing groups into passing down conditions, but in addition struggles to make stops as soon as groups get into scoring place.

The Missouri offense needed to substitute quite a lot of manufacturing from final 12 months, and have relied closely on switch again Ahmad Hardy (leads the SEC with 935 yards on the bottom) to make the offense go, in addition to effectivity on the QB spot to maintain them in manageable down and distance conditions. Similar to final season, the Tigers aren’t probably the most explosive group by way of the air, however so long as you’ve gotten an skilled QB enjoying good soccer and averaging a 70% completion proportion to go along with your nice run sport… no drawback proper? Enter the damage to Pribula, and that adjustments the complexion of this Missouri offense a bit bit. He regarded nice in his time in opposition to Vanderbilt, however it’s a giant ask for Freshman Matt Zollers to come back in and run the present the identical manner a Redshirt Junior has been since Week 1.

I mentioned in my LSU Fun With Numbers that I used to be extra anxious about this sport than I used to be enjoying in Baton Rouge. But after watching how this group performed within the second half, and understanding that Missouri is now technically on their third QB of the season… I lean closely in the direction of the group with extra expertise at QB and a powerful go rush. I anticipate Missouri goes to depend on Hardy very early on, and when they should throw, will probably be very fast passes and screens to maintain Zollers from having to face strain behind an OL that hasn’t held up nicely all season, regardless of their expertise.

Hardy is totally the kind of again who could cause issues on the second stage of this protection, however I believe if they’ll restrict his explosiveness, Missouri will finally haven’t any alternative however to let Zoller drop again and take their possibilities on lengthy passing downs. Hopefully Marcel can care for the soccer and search for alternatives for large features (principally do the whole lot he did within the LSU sport apart from the 2nd quarter), and I believe the large performs shall be there in opposition to this protection.

My Prediction: I really feel like I’m slowly constructing the kind of confidence Elko is inspiring on this group because the season goes on. At some level it’d chew me however till then, let’s benefit from the experience. Aggies win one other highway battle 27-17.

Thanks for studying this week. We’ll be again subsequent time to debate the Gamecocks proper right here at Good Bull Hunting Dot Com. Until then, take a look at these different websites in case you’re .

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