Which NFL Week 12 video games have largest influence on playoff races, No. 1 decide possibilities?

As Thanksgiving approaches, video games throughout the NFL begin to have added layers of significance. Some groups have set themselves as much as be combating for playoff seeding whereas others are combating simply to get into the dance. On the flip facet of the standings, there are a cluster of groups whose 2025 seasons have gone south however have hope for reinforcements with premium draft picks. Only one crew can land the No. 1 decide within the 2026 NFL Draft, so the race to the underside is nearly as intriguing for the remainder of the common season because the playoff image.

Here’s a take a look at a few of the largest swing video games in Week 12, utilizing knowledge from The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

Five Week 12 video games with largest potential playoff shifts

In a story that many earlier than the season would have imagined being flipped on this Week 12 sport, the Indianapolis Colts are working with a wholesome cushion, whereas the Kansas City Chiefs have little or no margin for error. A loss would sink the Chiefs to 5-6 and create an extra deficit within the wild-card race. The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), Buffalo Bills (7-4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at the moment maintain the three wild-card slots, and the Chiefs have misplaced head-to-head in opposition to every of them. Kansas City nonetheless has one other sport left in opposition to the Chargers, however although the Chiefs are one behind the Bills and Jaguars within the loss column, they’d lose the tiebreaker in each instances, so they should leapfrog them.

This sport can also be essential for the Colts. Indianapolis is 8-2, proper behind the 9-2 Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, who sit atop the convention. It’s shaping as much as be a good race on the prime for the No. 1 seed within the AFC. It could be large for the Colts to earn that prime slot and host video games of their dome as a substitute of getting to play on the highway within the components in January.

The sport is irrelevant for Arizona’s playoff odds, however the Jaguars are in a good wild-card race with six groups for the three slots. Of these groups, the Jaguars have the simplest remaining schedule, however they nonetheless have two video games in opposition to the Colts and one in opposition to the Broncos. As the present No. 7 seed, they’ve some margin for error, however they’ll’t slip in opposition to a crew just like the Cardinals.

The state of affairs in Pittsburgh is much much less snug now than it was a month in the past, when the Steelers had been 4-1 and the remainder of the division was hit onerous by accidents. The Baltimore Ravens are using a four-game successful streak and are primed to make it 5 after they host the New York Jets on Sunday. The Ravens (5-5) are proper on the heels of the 6-4 Steelers, with two head-to-head matchups remaining within the ultimate month of the season. The 3-7 Cincinnati Bengals are a far lesser concern, however quarterback Joe Burrow is shut to creating his return to the sphere, too.

For the Bears, the desire is clearly to make the playoffs as a division winner, and each sport is important now in retaining tempo in a aggressive NFC North. Chicago (7-3) is the same as the Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) within the loss column however holds a slight edge as a result of the Packers have a tie whereas the Bears have a further win. The Detroit Lions (6-4) are very a lot within the dialog, as effectively. After Sunday’s sport in opposition to the Steelers, 5 of the six remaining video games for Chicago will come in opposition to convention opponents at the moment within the NFC playoff image, together with two in opposition to the Packers and one in opposition to the Lions.

The Packers are in fine condition as a result of they management their playoff path by advantage of the 2 head-to-head matchups in opposition to the Bears. On Sunday, they can’t solely maintain tempo with the division leaders in Chicago, however they’ll additionally assist sink one other division rival. The Vikings would fall to 4-7 with a loss, taking the division out of the image and making a playoff berth in a aggressive NFC extremely unlikely. This sport is extra concerning the Packers, although, as a result of sandwiched between Sunday’s sport in opposition to the Vikings and the season finale in Minnesota is a brutal schedule that options the Lions, the Bears twice, the Ravens and the Broncos. Green Bay can’t let one of many really winnable video games left on the schedule get away.

Monday evening’s tilt contains a 20 % shift for each the 49ers and the Panthers, nevertheless it’s clearly extra important to Carolina. Not solely does a loss drop the Panthers to .500, however, nearly as good an opponent because the 49ers could also be, they’re one of many simpler opponents left on the Panthers’ schedule. That’s not as a lot a slight to the 49ers as it’s chatting with the daunting activity forward for the Panthers, who nonetheless need to face the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice) of their ultimate 5 video games. The sport is massive for the 49ers, too. While they’ve an out of doors shot on the division, the possible state of affairs is that they’ll be competing in opposition to the second and third groups from the NFC North, in addition to the second-place groups within the NFC West and NFC South, for a wild-card spot. Adding to their win complete, to not point out bettering their already nice 7-2 convention file, may very well be key down the stretch.

Battle for the No. 1 decide

The stakes are excessive for these two 2-8 groups and never simply because it’s Shedeur Sanders’ first NFL begin. A win would enhance both crew’s file to 2 video games forward of the 1-9 Tennessee Titans and actually harm their possibilities for the No. 1 decide. With 5 two-win groups on the tail of the Titans, remember the fact that Browns-Raiders is a convention matchup. The Raiders are 2-5 within the AFC and the Browns are 1-6. While energy of schedule is the primary tiebreaker to find out which crew will get the higher draft decide, division and convention tiebreakers enter the equation after that, which means a win for the Raiders may very well be expensive on the finish of the season, if the purpose is to enhance their draft positioning.