College soccer Rivalry Week preview: Ohio State-Michigan, Texas A&M-Texas

It looks like solely yesterday that Florida State was operating circles round Alabama, LSU was scoring an announcement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a sport with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly have been teaching top-10 groups.

College soccer has the shortest common season round however stays able to limitless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has discovered a brand new one and, due to one other couple of late-game failures, Miami is once more simply on the skin of the College Football Playoff wanting in (whereas Notre Dame is once more secure).

Now we get to learn how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate internet of tiebreakers to achieve convention title video games? What surprises would possibly fierce rivalry video games present? And most significantly, how a lot small-school playoff soccer do you intend on watching?

It’s time to feast on Thanksgiving and on soccer. It’s Rivalry Week! Here’s every thing you have to comply with.

Two large rivalry video games starring favorites as spoilers

Rivalry Week’s superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look — from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) — you may discover video games that can outline followers’ outlooks for a whole offseason.

It’s good to have some bell-cow video games, although. And two of the game’s loudest rivalries have main stakes this 12 months.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, midday, Fox)

I do not know if you happen to’ve heard, however Ohio State hasn’t crushed Michigan shortly. Since the beginning of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went via a full-on existential disaster after final 12 months’s loss, then rallied to whomp 4 straight opponents and win the nationwide title.

On Saturday, the Buckeyes will check out a brand new position for a brand new period: unbeaten spoiler. They’re safely within the CFP it doesn’t matter what, although they may nonetheless lose their spot within the Big Ten championship sport. (I guess that will be a foul factor?) But with a win, they may be certain that Michigan is out of the CFP operating. That’s in all probability sufficient motivation.

Last week, Michigan supplied a whole efficiency with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve operating backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O’Meara, in due to accidents, rushed for a mixed 171 yards, and the protection allowed touchdowns on solely the Terps’ first and final drives. Bryce Underwood ranks twelfth in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are tenth in defensive SP+.

Ohio State has been so ruthlessly computerized that we nonetheless do not know every thing we have to learn about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling accidents of late, Sayin has accomplished 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to 4 interceptions, however he has additionally thrown simply 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he carry out when dealing with fixed stress? We do not know. (Of course, Penn State obtained in his face loads and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We do not know. (Granted, he is 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)

Smith seems prone to play Saturday, however Tate’s standing stays unsure. This is likely to be the stiffest defensive check Sayin has confronted, nevertheless it’s undoubtedly the stiffest Underwood has confronted, and he does not have the healthiest talent corps both. The stress is all on Michigan for a change.

Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been in a position to say it received its final journey to Austin. If the Aggies can nonetheless say that Saturday morning, they will have wrapped up their first unbeaten common season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship sport look and formally knocked Texas out of CFP rivalry.

Texas simply hasn’t regarded the half for a lot of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are presently twenty third with a protection that has allowed greater than 30 factors for 4 straight video games and an offense that solely lately started carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and whereas he has derived a great deal of success from quick, straightforward passes, the offense is certainly clicking even when the protection is not.

Two weeks in the past in opposition to South Carolina, A&M’s Marcel Reed put collectively simply concerning the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and greatest second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You cannot ever say A&M is out of a sport if Reed is round to dig the Aggies out of a gap, however he additionally is likely to be a part of the rationale they’re within the gap to start with.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3

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Which contender falls on the highway?

Of the 11 groups ranked from fourth to 14th within the CFP rankings, 9 play on the highway this weekend. Just a few may survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, however with so many comparable groups packed collectively, you do not actually wish to discover out if you happen to’re on the “could survive” record.

Based on SP+ win chances, there’s solely a few 7% probability that these 9 groups all win and there’s a 37% probability that not less than three lose. Chaos looms. Let’s speak about every of the 9 video games, going from the most probably to the least possible defeats for the contenders.

No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had principally the identical season: They’re a mixed 0-4 in opposition to groups within the SP+ prime 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 in opposition to everybody else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the identical common strengths (ruthlessly environment friendly offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that present up solely sometimes). Vols followers are in all probability aggravated that their crew is out of the playoff operating as a result of their schedule was barely tougher, however they will actual some degree of vengeance with a win Saturday.

My Heisman factors race totals counsel Diego Pavia’s odds needs to be higher than they’re. He’ll must torch Tennessee’s (sometimes torchable) protection to make an excellent ultimate impression. But Joey Aguilar is able to doing the identical. Both are in the most effective quadrant of this chart:

Both defenses performed nicely final week in opposition to restricted opponents, however the offenses have the benefit right here.

Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0

No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, midday, ABC)

Since walloping an excellent USF crew in Week 3, Miami has performed three SP+ top-40 groups — Florida State, Louisville and SMU — and misplaced to 2. The protection has been constantly robust; the Canes are seventh in factors allowed per drive, they usually may give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers’ run sport is not sharp sufficient. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at instances by an absence of explosiveness and compelled to attain by way of lengthy drives with a lot of snaps.

That makes Pitt a captivating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive performs in change for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, however they’re averaging simply 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they do not discover and exploit open areas, an upset looms.

Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2

No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

In the previous three seasons, Auburn has performed 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 however with 9 one-score defeats. When you come so constantly shut, you are at all times a risk.

Auburn’s protection is elite in opposition to the run, however Alabama has all however given up on the bottom sport. The Tide select as an alternative to place every thing on quarterback Ty Simpson’s shoulders, and regardless of a stable go rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That’s an issue, however the Tigers may make issues complicated on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (in opposition to Vandy) and Deuce Knight (in opposition to Mercer) have loved improbable performances since Hugh Freeze’s firing, and there is not a ton of tape on both of them. If Auburn retains this one uncomfortably shut — or pulls off a very damaging upset — the component of shock may very well be a significant cause.

Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5

No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Oregon won’t want a win in Seattle to safe a playoff bid, but when different favorites win and it does not, issues may get tense.

Washington’s run protection is stout sufficient to push the Ducks off schedule and pressure quarterback Dante Moore to hit large third-and-long throws that he hasn’t at all times made this season. But this sport will possible come all the way down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They’ve dominated all however essentially the most elite defenses.

Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 factors per sport, 4.5 yards per play

Washington vs. everybody else: 42.0 factors per sport, 7.0 yards per play

Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams will get going, Washington can beat anybody. But it might be the primary time he has executed so in opposition to a protection this good.

Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1

No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 begin, the Yellow Jackets have misplaced two of three, their protection giving up 41.3 factors per sport. Last week’s loss to Pitt eliminated numerous stakes from this sport. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has sufficient hatred for Georgia to maintain the stakes as excessive as attainable.

If you possibly can’t cease Georgia’s run sport, the Dawgs will simply hold at it, and that is likely to be all that issues on this one. But Tech’s offense stays glorious. Haynes King has thrown for not less than 300 yards in three of his previous 4 video games, and he has rushed for greater than 85 non-sack yards seven instances in 2025. King nearly willed the Jackets to victory over UGA final season however fell simply quick. He’ll strive once more in his final Tech dwelling sport (though this one will likely be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and never Bobby Dodd).

Current line: UGA -13.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.8

No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Friday, midday, ABC)

First issues first: Yes, the present school soccer calendar stinks, and it was at all times conceivable {that a} coach would get wooed by blue-blood colleges amid a playoff push. But as others have famous, this is not taking place to Lane Kiffin. It’s taking place to Ole Miss as a result of Kiffin is definitely eager about leaving. There are loads of respectable causes to weigh a blue-blood transfer — custom, recruiting bases, an epic and ridiculous wage provide — however that is nonetheless his personal doing.

Ole Miss is significantly better than MSU. The Rebels mix a gentle run sport with excessive tempo and high-ceiling passing. The protection has been mediocre in opposition to the run however robust in opposition to the go. That pairs nicely in opposition to a Bulldogs crew that makes large performs right here and there however goes three-and-out too typically and may’t cease even a median run sport. With no distractions or rivalry weirdness, Ole Miss cruises. But, wow, is it tough to imagine no distractions or rivalry weirdness.

Current line: Rebels -7.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 14.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 8.5

No. 13 Utah at Kansas (Friday, midday, ESPN)

Utah’s protection has allowed 75 factors prior to now two weeks, and star defensive finish John Henry Daley is probably going out for the season with a leg harm. But Kansas has misplaced 4 of 5 since a 4-2 begin. The Jayhawks’ offense has underachieved in opposition to projections in each sport since September, and Utah has scored not less than 45 factors in six of seven video games. The Utes dodged a bullet with final week’s comeback win over Kansas State, and possibly the protection cannot proper the ship. But indicators nonetheless level to them reaching 10-2.

Current line: Utah -13.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.0

No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (Saturday, midday, ESPN)

Over the previous 4 weeks, WVU’s protection has made essentially the most tackles for loss within the Big 12, whereas new quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. has turn out to be a an increasing number of explosive passer. The Mountaineers have received two of three since a 2-6 begin. Will any of this matter in opposition to Texas Tech? Probably not. The Red Raiders are on a distinct airplane of existence within the trenches, they usually’ve received 4 video games by a median of 41-9 since quarterback Behren Morton returned from harm.

Current line: Tech -20.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.5

No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)

A sport with CFP stakes will finish at round 2 a.m. ET Sunday. Convenient. There should not be a lot drama, although. Notre Dame has received its previous three video games by a median of 52-11, and whereas Stanford has improved of late and scored a rousing rivalry win over Cal final week, its offense continues to be destitute. It will take epic rivalry magic for this to stay shut previous midnight.

Current line: Irish -32.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 24.9

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Does the ACC have one other spherical of surprises?

Back within the 2010s, the ACC Coastal division was the shining mild for both parity or slapstick. All seven of its members received the division title as soon as from 2013 to 2019, and all seven proceeded to lose the ACC championship sport. (That’s why we removed divisions — they have been normally terribly unequal.)

The spirit of the Coastal lives. It’s within the partitions; there is no getting it out. Starting with Clemson within the preseason, the convention favourite per SP+ has modified, look forward to it, seven instances this 12 months and has executed so for every of the previous 4 weeks. Odds counsel we’ll in all probability get an SMU-Virginia title sport subsequent week, however since when do odds matter on this league? Four different groups have not less than a slight probability at taking benefit if (when?) the Mustangs or Cavaliers slip up, together with whoever wins Miami-Pitt (listed above).

No. 21 SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2)

SMU started the season 2-2, falling out of the SP+ prime 50 from a place to begin of nineteenth. Since October started, nonetheless, the Mustangs have gone 6-1 and surged all the best way again to twenty fourth. The protection rounded into type first, then the offense adopted. The Mustangs nonetheless cannot run in addition to anticipated, however quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 994 yards and 7 touchdowns in three November video games.

Now comes an odd check: Cal simply fired Justin Wilcox after his Golden Bears adopted an upset of Louisville with a catastrophic, error-strewn loss to Stanford. Interim coaches have executed nicely this season, and Cal can mix stable go protection with an sometimes productive Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-to-Jacob De Jesus go combo. But this sport will in all probability come all the way down to SMU: If the Mustangs hold hitting the notes they have been hitting, they will head again to Charlotte in per week and a half.

Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 | FPI projection: SMU by 12.8

Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)

In the previous 45 years, Virginia has been a double-digit favourite in opposition to rival Virginia Tech simply as soon as, in 1985. The Cavaliers misplaced 28-10. In truth, they have been favored over Tech 14 instances in that span and have gone simply 7-7 in these video games. In phrases of common rivalry nonsense, that is pleasant. But certainly they can not lose this one, proper? Tech has misplaced 5 of six, Virginia has received eight of 9, and a win would take the Hoos to Charlotte for simply the second time. Surely not, proper?

To the Hokies’ credit score, they have not stopped combating. They made Louisville and Miami sweat for some time, however they simply have not had the horses, particularly on protection. Tech’s run sport may check UVA, however even in opposition to an inconsistent Cavaliers offense, the Hokies will nonetheless must make stops, and that has been a significant challenge.

Current line: UVA -11.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 | FPI projection: UVA by 9.5

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Down to the wire within the Group of 5

After weeks of turnover atop the Group of 5 hierarchy, final Saturday was truly secure, with the three present favorites (Tulane, North Texas and James Madison) all successful. If that continues — and SP+ suggests there’s solely a few 15% probability considered one of them loses this week — we all know the place issues stand: Tulane and North Texas will face off for the American title whereas JMU will hope to attain type factors in opposition to both Southern Miss or Troy within the Sun Belt championship sport.

Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

North Texas is basically the mid-major USC: The Mean Green have a relentless passing sport, an excellent run sport, a stable go protection and a really worrisome run protection. Earlier within the season, which may have been one thing Temple may benefit from, however in November the Owls are averaging simply 85 non-sack speeding yards per sport and 4.0 yards per carry. If you possibly can’t punish the Mean Green between the tackles, they are going to overwhelm you with factors.

Current line: UNT -19.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 | FPI projection: UNT by 17.7

James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU)

Despite a current two-game skid, Coastal has scored 40-plus in 4 straight Sun Belt video games because of large rushes from quarterback Samari Collier and a rise in aggressive downfield completions. Nothing actually labored in a blowout loss to South Carolina final week — and actually, on paper JMU’s protection is likely to be higher than South Carolina’s — however the Chanticleers’ big-play looking makes them an intriguing candidate to tug an upset (or get completely thumped).

Current line: JMU -21.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.8

Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU)

Tim Albin left a longtime tradition at Ohio to construct a brand new one at Charlotte. It would possibly take a short while. His 49ers are 0-10 in opposition to FBS competitors, they usually have not misplaced by fewer than 17 since September. They would possibly check Tulane with some vertical passing, however with the Green Wave taking part in a fairly good bend-don’t-break routine of late, I doubt it really works. And each different matchup drastically favors Jake Retzlaff and the Wave.

Current line: Tulane -29.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 28.2

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Week 14 chaos superfecta

We’re once more utilizing this house to will chaos into existence, 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly large level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity. Thanks to Utah’s late comeback in opposition to Kansas State, we missed out final week and fell to 6-7 for the season. It’s time to claw again to .500!

SP+ says there’s solely a 47% probability that Ole Miss (82% win likelihood in opposition to Mississippi State), Ohio State (82% in opposition to Michigan), Louisiana (84% in opposition to ULM) and UNLV (84% in opposition to Nevada) all win. Let’s take down a popular rival!

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Week 14 playlist

From Thursday night time to Saturday night time, listed below are extra video games you need to take note of if you wish to get absolutely the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.

Thursday

Navy at Memphis (7:30 p.m., ESPN). If both American favourite slips up, Navy may very well be able to seize a convention title sport bid with a track-meet win Thanksgiving night time. The Midshipmen have given up greater than 30 factors in six straight video games, and Memphis has executed so in 4 of 5. May we be blessed with a repeat of final season’s 100-point, 1,225-yard feast.

Current line: Memphis -5.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 9.9

Early Friday

Iowa at Nebraska (midday, CBS). Both of those groups have been hoping for higher than 7-4 information this season, and Iowa particularly was painfully near one thing far larger. Regardless, this has turn out to be a must-watch sport: The previous seven matchups have been determined by one rating. Iowa has been the higher crew in 2025, however the Hawkeyes are solely 2-4 in one-score finishes. Nebraska is 4-2.

Current line: Iowa -5.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3

Friday afternoon

San Diego State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). If SDSU wins, the Aztecs are assured of a spot within the Mountain West title sport, and we probably keep away from tiebreaker hell. But New Mexico, now seventieth in SP+ — the final time the Lobos completed within the prime 70 was 2007 — has an environment friendly passing sport, a shortly bettering protection and will make the race awfully messy with a house upset.

Current line: SDSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 | FPI projection: SDSU by 0.5

Friday night

No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m., NBC). After 9 video games of largely complete brilliance, Indiana has underachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by 9.8 factors per sport over its previous two. Did the Hoosiers peak early? Did they simply get bored? Will that matter in opposition to a fading Purdue crew that has misplaced its previous two video games by a mixed 83-23? Surely the Spoilermakers could not spoil the Hoosiers’ celebration, proper?

Current line: IU -28.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 | FPI projection: IU by 28.6

Late Friday

No. 25 Arizona at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). If Kansas upsets Utah earlier Friday, a win would hold ASU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. But Arizona has received 4 straight and has risen to twenty fifth in SP+. ASU may exploit a suspect Wildcats run protection with Raleek Brown and quarterback Jeff Sims, however the Sun Devils should keep away from passing downs and make some stops in opposition to an bettering Arizona offense.

Current line: Arizona -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 0.4

Early Saturday

UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2). Two years in the past, 5-6 BYU practically wrecked Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship plans in Stillwater, bolting to an 18-point lead however falling in double extra time. (That’s proper, children, OSU was as soon as good at soccer! Way again in 2023!) Now comes a reversal. The Cougars are one win away from the title sport however should fend off a 5-6 UCF crew with velocity and no semblance of consistency.

Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3

Clemson at South Carolina (midday, SECN). These two preseason top-15 groups are a mixed 11-12, having fallen sufferer to poor improvement, shut losses, mediocre new hires and any variety of different afflictions. But that is why Rivalry Week is superb: This sport continues to be going to be intense and hostile, and the winner will get a dose of positivity earlier than a difficult offseason.

Current line: S.C. -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 0.5 | FPI projection: S.C. by 3.4

Toledo at Central Michigan (midday, ESPN+). Since a stunning loss to Bowling Green despatched Toledo to 1-2 in convention play, the Rockets have received their previous 4 MAC video games by a median of 37-6. Their protection ranks fifth nationally in factors allowed per drive. But CMU has received 4 of 5 to stay within the hunt. Who retains title hopes alive (till Miami possibly dashes them later within the day)?

Current line: Toledo -10.5 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 | FPI projection: CMU by 9.5

Saturday afternoon

LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC). This one nearly actually belonged in one of many marquee classes above, however whereas so many different playoff contenders take to the highway over Rivalry Week, OU has a simpler process: win at dwelling in opposition to an LSU crew with a nonexistent offense, and the Sooners are within the CFP.

The Oklahoma offense may make this one difficult: LSU ranks ninth in defensive SP+, and OU has averaged solely 14.8 offensive factors and 4.6 yards per play in opposition to defenses ranked larger than twentieth. But the Tigers scored solely 13 factors on Western Kentucky final week; 14 by the Sooners may very well be sufficient.

Current line: OU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 | FPI projection: OU by 6.6

Troy at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). The Sun Belt race is easy: The winner in Hattiesburg faces James Madison within the title sport. Southern Miss no-showed in opposition to Texas State and fell at South Alabama to drop to 7-4. The Golden Eagles are more and more susceptible on protection, however Troy’s offense ranks a hundred and twenty fifth in yards per play. The Trojans are right here due to purple zone protection and a fierce go rush.

Current line: USM -6.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 | FPI projection: USM by 1.5

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (2 p.m., ESPN+). The winner is assured a spot within the Conference USA title sport. JSU had received 5 in a row till a misstep final week at Florida International, and WKU has received three straight CUSA video games and practically toppled LSU final week. Which younger QB — JSU’s Caden Creel or WKU’s Rodney Tisdale Jr. — handles the second higher?

Current line: WKU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 | FPI projection: JSU by 0.3

Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., FS1). The highway crew has received three straight on this unusual collection. In its previous 4 video games, Wisconsin has overachieved in opposition to SP+ projections by 20.8 factors per sport. Minnesota has underachieved by 9.7. Can the Badgers win to wrap up the happiest attainable 5-7 end? Or will Minnesota rally to seize Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the fourth time in 5 years?

Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 7.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.3

Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN). Along with Georgia Southern-Marshall (1:30 p.m., ESPN+) and Arkansas State-Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+), we’ve got a trio of “Winner bowls, loser stays home” video games with 5-6 groups squaring off Saturday afternoon.

Penn State has been legitimately robust below interim coach Terry Smith, and Ethan Grunkemeyer’s 71.4 Total QBR toasts that of injured veteran Drew Allar (56.6). It could be a shock if the Nittany Lions slipped up this near the end line in opposition to a Rutgers crew that has misplaced six of eight.

Current line: PSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 11.1

Saturday night

Northwestern at Illinois (7:30 p.m., Fox). POTENTIAL SNOW GAME ALERT. The forecast in Champaign is wanting fairly dicey, and here is a giant “hell yes” to that. The highway crew has received 4 of 5 on this collection, however Illinois has been infinitely higher at dwelling than on the highway this season. Of course, Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense have underachieved for weeks. Can they rally on senior night time?

Current line: Illinois -6.5 | SP+ projection: Illinois by 11.3 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.3

North Carolina at NC State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). This is Bill Belichick’s first foray into one of many sport’s most underrated rivalries. UNC was rallying towards bowl eligibility earlier than final week’s tight loss to Duke. Now the Tar Heels head to Raleigh to face an NC State crew that’s each bodily and maddeningly inconsistent. A Wolfpack blowout? A UNC upset? Nothing could be notably shocking.

Current line: NC State -7.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 8.7

UCLA at No. 17 USC (7:30 p.m., NBC). After a short upturn following DeShaun Foster’s firing, UCLA has bottomed out once more, shedding its previous 4 video games by a median of 45-13. Staying shut would possibly require a stable quantity of rivalry magic, however USC may very well be reeling after final week’s loss to Oregon formally eradicated the Trojans from CFP rivalry.

Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 27.3 | FPI projection: USC by 23.6

Late Saturday

UNLV at Nevada (9 p.m., CBSSN). They play for a cannon, they usually had a nasty brawl within the not-so-distant previous. Major “underrated rivalry” factors right here. Nevada has all of the sudden began taking part in nicely of late, and whereas we do not know if UNLV will nonetheless have MWC title hopes by kickoff, the Rebels may hit double-digit wins for the second straight 12 months.

Current line: UNLV -9.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 10.4

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s as soon as once more save a shoutout for the wonderful decrease ranges of the game. The playoffs are underway in each division, and whereas the favorites in all probability aren’t going to be examined simply but, here is a sport you need to observe at every degree.

FCS spherical of 24: No. 21 Yale at No. 13 Youngstown State (12 p.m., ESPN+). Two Ivy League groups reached the FCS playoffs within the Ancient Eight’s first 12 months of accepting bids, and whereas Harvard (at Villanova, midday, ESPN+) seems to be shedding steam shortly, Yale is peaking simply in time. The Bulldogs have received their previous six and have risen to twelfth in SP+. Youngstown State is simply twenty fourth, however the Penguins rating a great deal of factors with dual-threat quarterback and Payton Award candidate Beau Brungard, and with their standing as FCS royalty, I’m guessing they wish to ship a message in opposition to the playoff newcomers from the Northeast.

SP+ projection: Yale by 3.3

Division II spherical of 16: No. 10 Texas-Permian Basin at No. 15 Western Colorado (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). Every week after thumping No. 4 CSU-Pueblo to attain the varsity’s first playoff win, UTPB returns to Colorado to face a WCU crew recent off of a top-five win of its personal over Central Washington. This is a dynamite quarterback matchup — UTPB’s Kanon Gibson vs. WCU’s Drew Nash — and although the winner in all probability will face an enormous process in opposition to No. 2 Harding, a quarterfinal berth could be candy all the identical.

SP+ projection Western by 5.6

Division III spherical of 32: No. 20 Wheaton at No. 5 Wartburg (1 p.m., ESPN+). I guess you thought I’d select considered one of 4 groups from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — my very own private obsession — for this part, however I resisted as a result of this sport appears notably thrilling. Wartburg provides up solely 10 factors per sport and piles up tackles for loss with a ridiculously energetic defensive entrance. Wheaton, in the meantime, averages 48.6 factors behind the arm of quarterback Mark Forcucci.

SP+ projection: Wartburg by 0.5

NAIA quarterfinals: No. 9 Morningside at No. 8 College of Idaho (3 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho reached the NAIA semifinals a few years in the past because of a dynamite offense, however the Yotes have earned an enormous dwelling sport this 12 months because of protection. Morningside is NAIA royalty, having received three nationwide titles since 2018, and with Zach Chevalier throwing to Drew Sellon and Lennx Brown, the Mustangs may need the most effective passing assault in NAIA.

SP+ projection: Morningside by 8.3