Champions League round-of-16 draw analysed: Predictions, greatest video games and star gamers

The Champions League spherical of 16 fixtures are actually set — and groups even know their attainable path to the ultimate.

Standout fixtures within the subsequent spherical embrace a rematch of the Club World Cup remaining between Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea, Real Madrid in opposition to Manchester City (once more), Galatasaray in opposition to Liverpool, Bayer Leverkusen in opposition to Arsenal and Newcastle United in opposition to Barcelona.

But how glad will your staff be with the draw? Will they be optimistic about their path to the ultimate? Who may very well be the star participant within the knockout phases? And who would possibly win the competitors?

Here, The Athletic’s specialists break down the draw and analyse what it might imply for the remainder of the event.

How glad will your staff be?

Sam Lee, Manchester City reporter: Facing Real Madrid is hardly a prospect to be relished however they’re at their relative weakest in years. If they play like they did on Wednesday evening, then City might do some actual harm. City did win in Madrid of their December league-phase recreation, in spite of everything.

George Caulkin, Newcastle United reporter: They didn’t say so in public, however Newcastle seen Chelsea because the marginally preferable draw. Barcelona looks like a much bigger take a look at (and so they have already misplaced to them within the league section), however a visit to Camp Nou can be relished by followers and stir gilded reminiscences of Sir Bobby Robson, an influential determine at each golf equipment.

James Horncastle, Italian soccer reporter: Given Atalanta have been 2-0 down within the first leg of their play-off in opposition to Borussia Dortmund, they’re simply glad to be right here. Being the one Serie A staff left within the competitors can also be a supply of satisfaction. It can be their first time in opposition to Bayern Munich.

Gregg Evans, Liverpool reporter: After drawing PSG within the spherical of 16 final 12 months, Liverpool will see this as a better ‘reward’ for ending within the prime eight. They misplaced to Galatasaray this season, however Arne Slot’s aspect have grown stronger collectively. A more durable take a look at in opposition to PSG or Chelsea follows within the quarter-finals.

Cerys Jones, Chelsea reporter: Even although they’ve, weirdly, overwhelmed PSG extra just lately than Newcastle, Chelsea would have most well-liked to face the latter. PSG can be out for blood after Chelsea upset them within the Club World Cup remaining, whereas Newcastle’s season is floundering. This is an opportunity for Chelsea to show that victory was an indication of them re-establishing themselves as European giants, reasonably than a one-off showpiece win.

Sebastian Stafford-Bloor, German soccer reporter: Bayern can be very happy. They can be cautious of what Atalanta did to Borussia Dortmund, however will enter that tie assured and with out trepidation. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and midfielder Konrad Laimer ought to be match once more. Alphonso Davies could have an opportunity, too.

Bayer Leverkusen? Even if they’re underdogs, going through Arsenal will be approached as a studying expertise for a younger staff who’ve performed nicely to succeed in this stage.

Dermot Corrigan, Spanish soccer reporter: Atletico Madrid can be content material to get Tottenham Hotspur as Liverpool have been the opposite choice. Spurs aren’t having a fantastic season, whereas Diego Simeone’s aspect have been actually outplayed when shedding 3-2 at Anfield final September.

Madrid would have a lot most well-liked Sporting CP. They simply maintain assembly City on this competitors, with Pep Guardiola by no means a welcome customer to the Bernabeu. After this tie, Madrid and City could have performed one another 13 occasions within the 2020s.

Real Madrid and Manchester City are acquainted foes (Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto through Getty Images)

Art de Roche, Arsenal soccer reporter: Arsenal would have been glad to play both Bayer Leverkusen or Atalanta, however contemplating they confronted the Italian aspect final season, they may welcome a brand new problem in opposition to Leverkusen.

Their most up-to-date match in opposition to Leverkusen was a 4-1 win in a 2024 pleasant, however even with the German aspect sixth in Bundesliga, their 2-0 win in opposition to Manchester City earlier this season reveals they shouldn’t be taken calmly.

The aspect of the draw can be equally vital to Arsenal as they may play both Sporting CP or Bodo/Glimt as an alternative of Manchester City or Real Madrid. They do have sore reminiscences of a Europa League exit by the hands of Sporting in 2023, however evading the stress of yet one more spring assembly with City can be nicely acquired.

Jack Pitt-Brooke, Tottenham Hotspur reporter: Spurs would have reasonably been drawn in opposition to Galatasaray than Atletico within the final 16. But finally, the ultimate section of this season is about staying within the Premier League.

Laia Cervello Herrero, Barcelona reporter: As glad as they are often. Their final matches in opposition to PSG didn’t encourage optimism, however they beat Newcastle this season. They went to purchase a lottery ticket and received.

Will they be optimistic about reaching the ultimate?

Lee: City’s prospect of Bayern within the subsequent spherical after which PSG or two English golf equipment within the semis isn’t particularly tempting, in the event that they get previous Madrid!

​​Caulkin: Getting to this stage was Eddie Howe’s goal initially of the season, so you’ll be able to argue that something from this level is a bonus. But Newcastle’s report in knockout competitors is formidable, and St James’ Park can be a cauldron. “We want to go as far as we can, and why not?” Howe advised reporters the opposite day. They will assault it.

Horncastle: Amid Covid-19 restrictions, Atalanta have been seconds away from reaching a semi-final, the place they’d have performed RB Leipzig. That was 5 and a half years in the past. They have received the Europa League within the meantime. They don’t anticipate to win this competitors. They do need to make life troublesome for whoever they face and go so far as attainable.

Evans: Momentum will construct for Liverpool if they will get by means of this one. After surrendering the Premier League title by Christmas, the main focus has been on making amends within the Champions League. Anfield can be electrical for each recreation from right here, and there’s a sense this staff are well-equipped to go far.

Jones: If they will beat PSG, which is a giant if, opponents begin taking a look at them much less just like the Chelsea who’ve dropped factors to Qarabag, Atalanta, Leeds United and Burnley, and extra just like the staff who’ve overwhelmed Napoli, Liverpool and PSG up to now 12 months. Optimism will construct.

Stafford-Bloor: Bayern have each cause to be hopeful. Arsenal are the one staff to have overwhelmed them this season and they’re now on the opposite aspect of the draw. Remember what Vincent Kompany’s aspect did to PSG throughout the league stage? And that was with out Jamal Musiala, who has since returned to full health. There’s nothing to concern.

Corrigan: Madrid’s historical past of a report 15 European Cup/Champions League victories (together with six of the previous 12) all the time brings confidence, however this isn’t a classic squad with a rookie supervisor in Alvaro Arbeloa — and in the event that they get previous City then it is going to doubtless be Bayern Munich subsequent.

Atletico, in the meantime, haven’t obtained previous the quarter-finals since 2016-17. Their draw appears to be like comparatively form, with a possible all-La Liga conflict with Barcelona, who they beat 4-0 of their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg, within the final eight.

De Roche: There aren’t any ensures of reaching the ultimate, however Arsenal could be assured in opposition to any staff in Europe after profitable all eight of their league-phase video games. The consistency they’ve proven house and away has been a serious enchancment from earlier Champions League campaigns, and will be what makes the distinction this 12 months.

Pitt-Brooke: Not particularly. If Spurs undergo, they’d face the winner of Barcelona and Newcastle United. And then Arsenal within the semi-finals. Spurs followers will in all probability not be reserving their flights to Budapest fairly but.

Cervello Herrero: Not solely have Barcelona been drawn in opposition to what appears to be like like essentially the most beatable opponent, however in a 12 months during which they’re struggling within the Champions League, they’ve averted probably taking part in former champions PSG, Chelsea, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Manchester City or Real Madrid till the ultimate. Hansi Flick’s staff out of the blue have time to enhance their defensive frailty earlier than the very finish of the competitors.

Which participant might stand out in your membership?

Lee: It is an apparent reply however Erling Haaland, primarily as a result of he scores most of City’s objectives. Sometimes soccer actually is that easy! By the identical token, Gianluigi Donnarumma may very well be very important on the different finish.

Caulkin: Anthony Gordon has been a person on a mission within the Champions League this season. He is second within the competitors’s goalscoring charts, behind Kylian Mbappe (14 objectives), with 10 (helped by 4 in opposition to Qarabag in that further play-off fixture, admittedly), and is brimming with confidence.

Horncastle: Marco Carnesecchi. Italy is blessed with depth within the goalkeeper place and the 25-year-old is having an excellent season for Atalanta. This week, Gianluigi Buffon, no much less, advised La Tripletta podcast: “I see myself in Carnesecchi in the way he approaches games. He’s bold and has got a bit of swagger about him.”

Evans: Dominik Szoboszlai is the main mild for Liverpool this season and is pumped as much as make it to the ultimate in his homeland. His objectives, creativity and all-action shows can be essential — offering he’s really performed as a midfielder reasonably than as a makeshift right-back.

De Roche: His numbers is probably not as excessive as earlier seasons, however Bukayo Saka tends to be the person Arsenal look to within the Champions League. He has performed simply 24 matches within the competitors, however has scored 12 objectives and assisted one other eight. Even when others have taken the headlines, akin to Declan Rice together with his free kicks in opposition to Real Madrid final season, Saka has nonetheless stood as much as carry Arsenal by means of European matches. Others might present magic moments, however the winger can be instrumental to Arsenal’s progress.

Corrigan: Given Madrid have so many points in defence, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will doubtless must carry out heroics (once more) if Madrid are to go a lot additional. Meanwhile, Norway centre-forward and former Crystal Palace participant Alexander Sorloth scored an excellent hat-trick for Atletico on this week’s play-off second leg win in opposition to Club Brugge, and has the bodily attributes to bother any defence.

Jones: It could be pretty for Chelsea if all their objectives seemed like Joao Pedro’s winner in opposition to Napoli — however since that strike, he appears to have the boldness to storm in and put away the poacher’s objectives too. If he can preserve that behavior, he can be Chelsea’s most vital participant.

Pitt-Brooke: Xavi Simons has shone in Spurs’ Champions League video games, wanting like he relishes taking part in on the most important stage. The 22-year-old can be as hungry as anybody to maintain impressing and proving that he is likely one of the most enjoyable younger gamers in Europe.

Cervello Herrero: It’s that point of the 12 months once more for Lamine Yamal. He shone throughout the knockout phases, and this season, that stage has come on the good time for him.

Goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi has shone for Atalanta (Clement Mahoudeau/AFP through Getty Images)

And who may very well be the star of this 12 months’s knockout phases?

Lee: Let’s go together with PSG’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia once more. You can simply think about it.

Caulkin: Newcastle tried to signal Michael Olise when he was a Crystal Palace participant, however so did nearly all people else. The Bayern Munich winger is so thrilling to observe.

Horncastle: No matter the stage, I take pleasure in watching PSG midfielder Vitinha play soccer.

Jones: I’d love for it to be Musiala. It has been a disgrace for European soccer as a complete that the Bayern attacking midfielder has missed a lot of the competitors already — what higher stage for him to construct momentum earlier than the World Cup?

Evans: Rio Ngumoha — nonetheless solely 17 years outdated however creating properly at Liverpool and making an impression on video games in its place. He is due a begin quickly and will show to be the distinction.

Stafford-Bloor: Harry Kane. His objectives have all the time produced moments, however Kane is taking part in with as broad an impact as at any level throughout his profession. He is Bayern’s most influential participant and so they have each likelihood of profitable the competitors. If they do this, it certainly brings the Ballon d’Or into play.

Corrigan: Sporting CP subsequent is an efficient draw for Bodo/Glimt, and Jens Petter Hauge has simply been taking part in outstandingly nicely.

Pitt-Brooke: I like watching Julian Alvarez — the Argentina ahead is such a harmful, ruthless participant who appears to flourish within the largest video games. If Atletico get previous Spurs, he might discover himself attacking Barcelona’s defence in an all-Spanish quarter-final.

De Roche: I’ll go for Hauge. It’s all the time good to search out gamers that weren’t in your radar in these competitions and his finishes in each legs in opposition to Inter positively caught the attention.

Cervello Herrero: Yamal. Last season, he was the star in opposition to Inter, and the elimination left him feeling very annoyed. “I’m going to bring the Champions League to Barcelona,” he advised reporters after the match. He was solely 17 then however there’s one thing about him that makes me imagine him.

Which round-of-16 tie excites you essentially the most?

Horncastle: Bodo/Glimt in opposition to Sporting retains the romance alive for each. Bodo ran the gauntlet of their remaining league-phase video games and within the play-off spherical. Sporting made it to the highest eight, upsetting PSG and, maybe, benefiting from not taking part in any Premier League groups.

Evans: Atletico vs Tottenham appears to be like enjoyable, if solely to see how a aspect caught up in a Premier League relegation battle will get on on the Metropolitano. Simeone vs Igor Tudor on the sidelines could be feisty, too.

Lee: I do know they performed in September however Newcastle vs Barcelona feels… contemporary.

Caulkin: It’s troublesome to look past Newcastle’s recreation in opposition to Barcelona, however when you power me: Bodo/Glimt in opposition to Sporting. The Champions League all the time looks like the identical groups taking part in one another and sticking it to the person all the time appeals.

Bodo/Glimt are making headlines within the Champions League (Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Corrigan: PSG in opposition to Chelsea appears to be like essentially the most even on paper — there’s a sense that Luis Enrique’s champions have but to essentially click on this season, however they may begin to speed up from right here.

Jones: I think about a PSG aspect with a Club World Cup-sized chip on their shoulder may very well be numerous enjoyable. Who will come out on prime in opposition to Chelsea? I’ve no concept, however anticipate leisure.

De Roche: Real Madrid vs Manchester City is essentially the most thrilling on paper, however it will likely be cool to see Bodo/Glimt and Sporting go head-to-head in one of many extra unlikely conferences. Sporting took the sport to PSG, whereas Bodo/Glimt did the identical to Inter. Having both of them within the quarter-finals ought to be enjoyable.

Pitt-Brooke: How about Atalanta in opposition to Bayern Munich? Atalanta have such a particular model, and Bayern have arguably performed the most effective soccer in Europe this season. It’s exhausting to get enthusiastic about Manchester City vs Real Madrid when it occurs yearly.

Stafford-Bloor: As somebody with fond reminiscences of the Nineteen Nineties and Faustino Asprilla, Newcastle and Barcelona stirs one thing in me. These are totally different occasions and I’m unsure the 2 sides are significantly nicely matched, however Newcastle’s physicality can be an issue at St James’ Park and that can be an excellent night.

Cervello Herrero: One can’t have a look at the fixtures and look previous Manchester City in opposition to Real Madrid, or reasonably Guardiola in opposition to Madrid, to be extra exact. It already looks as if a European traditional and has my full consideration.

Who is your choose to win the event?

De Roche: If final season is something to go by, then the place groups end within the league section doesn’t imply that a lot when the knockouts start. Arsenal have a superb likelihood, contemplating how complete their wins have been, even in opposition to Bayern and Inter. I additionally surprise how lengthy Mbappe will go with out lifting the massive one at membership stage.

Horncastle: Arsenal. They have been trending in that course.

Lee: The massive query about Arsenal is whether or not their kind carries on for just a few extra months, however they do have a superb draw on their aspect. That mentioned, I can nonetheless see PSG profitable it.

Caulkin: Will PSG rouse themselves like final season? I might see it. But I’m going to say Bayern Munich, only for the hell of it.

Evans: Liverpool — they’ve discovered their groove within the Champions League by profitable the final three away video games, and the staff is about up to reach Europe, particularly if they will get just a few gamers again from damage.

Corrigan: Arsenal have been great within the league stage, however appear fairly prone to get distracted by the Premier League. If PSG can hit kind and attain final season’s stage, they might win it once more.

Pitt-Brooke: Kompany has constructed a doubtlessly nice Bayern staff, with an actual unity among the many gamers and an expansive model of soccer. He has Kane taking part in higher than ever. They’re the most effective staff, however they’re additionally within the tougher half of the draw.

Jones: I wrestle to think about Arsenal sustaining this stage of energy within the Champions League whereas additionally warding off City within the Premier League. Bayern have a mammoth process to succeed in the ultimate, however they’ve the attacking high quality to beat any staff they’d face there — and so they have been frighteningly constant on this competitors, so I’ll go together with them.

Cervello Herrero: As Gary Lineker as soon as mentioned, “Football is a simple game in which 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and, in the end, the Germans always win.” So which means Bayern Munich, I assume.

What would you modify in regards to the Champions League?

Horncastle: But for the disorientation at phases of the league section, the brand new format delivers. Pot 1 groups are shedding to these in Pot 4. Real Madrid and PSG fell into the play-off spherical once more. Italians crashed out. Bodo/Glimt and Galatasaray unexpectedly made it by means of, as did PSV, Feyenoord and Club Brugge final 12 months.

Evans: The variety of groups. There are far too many, and that has diluted the competitiveness.

Jones: I agree with Gregg. I discover the league format, with groups taking part in a greater diversity of opponents, extra entertaining than the normal group format, however chopping down the numbers ought to maintain that unpredictability and selection whereas making for fewer walkovers or lifeless rubbers.

Lee: I just like the format, however would eliminate the VAR system, which is equally infuriating in Europe, simply differently.

Caulkin: Two years in the past, Newcastle performed Milan, PSG and Borussia Dortmund within the group stage: an excellent, brutal draw. I fairly like the brand new format and Howe’s staff have benefitted from it, however the video games have (largely) felt like a drop-off from Premier League high quality and there’s one thing a bit bizarre in regards to the lack of context/narrative in solely taking part in groups as soon as. I haven’t given any options there. I’m outdated and would carry again the European Cup.

Corrigan: I don’t just like the potential paths to the ultimate being recognized up to now prematurely. It additionally takes a lot of the pleasure out of attracts like at this time’s one. Although the flip aspect of that was that no less than at this time’s draw was over shortly.

De Roche: Similar to Dermot, the brand new bracket system takes among the pleasure across the competitors when you realize what paths groups can take to the ultimate as early as February.

Pitt-Brooke: I’d gleefully eliminate the brand new format. The 144-game league section is a bloated joke. We want fewer groups, fewer video games and extra jeopardy from the beginning. I by no means thought eight teams of 4 would look so interesting, however right here we’re.

Stafford-Bloor: I don’t like seeding. I perceive the argument for it, however even on the round-of-16 stage there’s nonetheless an absence of jeopardy.

Cervello Herrero: The truth that you simply may need to compete in opposition to groups you have got already performed that very same season in the identical competitors. I like the brand new format, nevertheless it loses its enchantment when you see the identical match thrice.