Iran battle ‘costs Middle East travel and tourism industry €515 million a day’

The regional battle between the US-Israel and Iran is reportedly costing the Middle East journey and tourism business €515 million a day.

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That determine relies on the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)’s 2026 pre-conflict forecast for the Middle East, which projected €178 billion in worldwide customer spending throughout the area this yr.

Regional aviation hubs in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Bahrain usually course of round 526,000 passengers per day, however that quantity has plummeted as airspace closures have seen flights grounded.

While many of those passengers are simply passing by – the Middle East accounts for 14% of worldwide worldwide transit visitors as a key connector between Europe and Asia and Africa – the area additionally accounts for five% of worldwide worldwide arrivals.

Currently many airways are solely working restricted flights, a fraction of their typical schedule. Analysis from Flightradar24 exhibits that on 24 February, Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways operated 527, 325 and 563 flights respectively. On 10 March, these numbers have been simply 309, 56 and 66.

Middle East vacationer numbers may drop by 30 million

The rising tensions look set to stifle what had not too long ago been a big tourism upsurge within the Middle East and the Gulf – however whether or not briefly or completely stays to be seen.

Ibrahim Khaled is the top of promoting for the Middle East Travel Alliance, a community of Destination Management Companies (DMCs) all through the Middle East.

“We’ve been seeing steady [visitor] growth year over year, especially with all the new tourism investments happening across the region,” he tells Euronews Travel.

“Saudi Arabia is currently at about 10%, but it’s growing incredibly fast since they opened up to leisure tourism in 2019. It’s definitely our most exciting up-and-coming destination.”

The occasions of the previous two weeks have halted that progress in its tracks.

“For places that the US and UK governments have put on no-go or no-fly lists, we’ve unfortunately seen a ton of cancellations,” Khaled says. “Flights are disrupted, and trips to those specific areas are pretty much on hold.”

A report by Tourism Economics has launched projections for the impression of the battle on regional tourism, which tally with the journey alliance’s outlook.

“We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11%-27% year on year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13% growth,” mentioned Director of Global Forecasting Helen McDermott and Senior Economist Jessie Smith.

“In absolute terms, this would mean a range of 23-38 million fewer international visitors compared to our baseline / previous forecast, and $34bn-$56bn (€29bn-€48bn) loss in visitor spend. This includes expected lingering sentiment impacts beyond the immediate conflict period.”

They added that the impression on tourism demand of this battle shall be bigger than that of the battle final yr.

This is due largely to the retaliatory strikes from Iran on neighbouring GCC nations, that are extra established tourism locations, in addition to the broader airspace closures throughout the area than final yr.

GCC nations shall be worst hit

Tourism Economics initiatives that GCC nations will see the most important losses in quantity phrases, “as they are the largest destinations in the region which have previously relied on perceptions of safety and stability”, McDermott and Smith mentioned.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are significantly susceptible because of giant worldwide customer volumes and a heavy reliance on air connectivity. Air transport is extra considerably impacted by poorer sentiment than land transport choices, the group mentioned of their report.

In comparability, Qatar and Bahrain see land arrivals accounting for 32% and 74% of whole arrivals, so they’re proportionally much less impacted.

“Given the widespread retaliatory strikes by Iran, sentiment effects are likely to be more widely spread across GCC countries,” the report mentioned.

Tourism Economics additionally highlighted the Middle East’s function as a worldwide transit hub, with its airports accounting for round 14% of worldwide transit exercise.

This will inevitably result in knock-on impacts exterior of the area, based on the group. The present disruption will have an effect on journey flows, which generally transit by the Middle East hubs, together with main routes between Europe and the Asia-Pacific area.

A resilient area

Despite the gravity of the present state of affairs, tourism business specialists say the long-term results might not be so drastic.

“We aren’t worried about the long-term impact on the company or tourism in the region. The Middle East has always been an incredibly resilient market, and demand always bounces back fast once stability returns,” says Khaled.

According to the WTTC, which represents the business’s non-public sector with members throughout airways, lodges, cruise traces and tour operators, the business may get well in “as little as two months”.

“The impact of international visitor spending across the Middle East is significant and averages around US$600 million per day, but history shows that the sector can recover quickly, especially when governments support travellers through hotel support or repatriation,” says Gloria Guevara, president and CEO of the WTTC.

“Our analysis of previous crises demonstrates that security-related incidents often see the fastest tourism recovery times, in some cases as quickly as two months, when governments and industry work together to restore traveller confidence.”