Is Yellowstone on the Brink? Cutting-Edge Research Offers Clues About an Imminent Eruption!

Annually, Yellowstone National Park draws millions of tourists eager to witness its dramatic geysers, steaming hot springs, and bubbling mud pots. These well-known natural attractions are a result of the park’s exceptional geology: It rests atop an active supervolcano that has produced three significant, explosive eruptions over the past 2.1 million years.

The latest eruption at Yellowstone occurred approximately 70,000 years ago, when thick lava oozed to the surface and flowed across the terrain. The last major explosion took place about 631,000 years ago, resulting in a colossal crater known as the Yellowstone Caldera.

Many intrigued spectators have pondered whether—and when—Yellowstone could next erupt. Currently, scientists are employing novel techniques to address these inquiries.

A recent study published last week in the journal Nature indicates that Yellowstone is improbable to undergo another significant eruption—at least, not in the near future—since the magma lying beneath its surface is divided across a network of distinct chambers.

Given the substantial total volume of magma available, Yellowstone will remain volcanically active. However, “nowhere in Yellowstone do we have areas that are capable of eruption,” states study lead author Ninfa Bennington, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, to the Washington Post’s Sarah Raza. “It contains a lot of magma, but the magma is not sufficiently interconnected.”

Prior research suggested that a vast layer of magma exists beneath Yellowstone; however, the new results contradict that assumption. “There are these segregated regions where magma is stored throughout Yellowstone, rather than having one large reservoir,” Bennington goes on to say to Fox Weather’s Angeli Gabriel.

Other investigations have predominantly depended on seismic waves for mapping subterranean structures. Since seismic waves travel at various speeds through different types of materials, researchers can employ them to “visualize” what’s beneath Earth’s surface—like a layer of solid rock or a chamber filled with scalding magma.

For this study, however, scientists utilized a method termed magnetotellurics. This technique also enables researchers to “see” beneath the surface, but it utilizes the Earth’s natural electromagnetic fields rather than seismic waves. As magma conducts electricity well, this method is highly effective for mapping molten rock, providing insights into what is occurring underground in volcanically active areas.

By employing magnetotellurics, scientists could create a comprehensive image of the magma beneath Yellowstone, which then permitted them to project potential future eruptions.

The newly developed map reveals substantial, deep reservoirs of basaltic magma, which flows readily and accounts for much of Earth’s volcanic activity. These chambers connect to shallower underground pools of rhyolitic magma, which is denser and necessitates higher pressure to erupt but often leads to more explosive eruptions. The entire magma system is integrated into Yellowstone’s hydrothermal system, which resembles subterranean plumbing near the surface.

Although basaltic eruptions are more prevalent globally, the Yellowstone Caldera was formed by a rhyolitic eruption that expelled magma with properties similar to asphalt skyward, as Michael Manga, a geoscientist at the University of California, Berkeley, who was not part of the study, explains to the Washington Post.

The largest rhyolitic magma reservoir identified by the team lies in the northeastern section of Yellowstone. Beneath it, basaltic magma is ascending from the lower crust, supplying heat to the thick, explosive magma above.

Based on this mapping, the researchers forecast a transformation in volcanic activity: If a rhyolitic eruption occurs in Yellowstone in the future, its epicenter would likely be in the northeastern part of the park. This marks a shift from the last 160,000 years, when most volcanic activity transpired elsewhere in the vicinity, according to their findings in the paper.

“The western portion of the Yellowstone Caldera is declining,” Bennington states to USA Today’s Elizabeth Weise.