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Introduction
As the United States increasingly seeks multilateral alliances to tackle challenges in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) has emerged as a central platform for collaboration. Thus far, the Quad has primarily avoided issues of security and defense so as not to convey the notion that it represents a formal defense alliance. Nevertheless, in light of the escalating security threats in the Indo-Pacific, including heightened maritime assertiveness from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), there is an urgent necessity for the four nations to synchronize defense efforts and bolster military—especially naval—cooperation to safeguard freedom of navigation and maintain peace in the global commons.
The risk to the Indo-Pacific global commons has become especially pressing in the South China Sea, where China has engaged in aggressive maritime operations against the Philippines due to a maritime conflict concerning the Second Thomas Shoal—an underwater reef in the Spratly Islands. In 1999, the Philippines stationed a World War II–era vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre, there to reinforce its territorial claim in the region. Beijing intends to intimidate Manila into relinquishing its claim to the Second Thomas Shoal by disrupting Philippine resupply operations to its limited group of marines present there. China escalated its intimidating actions against the Philippines in 2024 by instigating several vessel collisions between PRC and Philippine ships, utilizing water cannons against Philippine vessels, and permitting its personnel to wield knives and axes during confrontations between the coast guards of the two nations, resulting in severe injuries to Philippine personnel. The possibility of a crisis in the South China Sea escalating into a broader conflict is on the rise. Considering China’s growing nuclear capabilities, there is a likelihood that a regional conflict could involve the signaling or deployment of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
There is an increasing necessity for the Quad nations to synchronize defense efforts and enhance military collaboration to ensure freedom of navigation and preserve peace in the global commons.
Although this document does not advocate for the formal enlargement of Quad membership, it explores opportunities for amplifying informal engagement and collaboration among the Quad nations and the Philippines (Quad Plus) to promote regional stability. It looks into how improving dialogue and cooperation among the five nations regarding maritime security and naval operations could aid in preventing conflict in the South China Sea by increasing the risks associated with PRC’s maritime aggression. It further assesses the avenues for Quad Plus collaboration on economic and technological matters to diminish regional dependencies on China that empower Beijing to practice economic coercion in pursuit of its global security aims. Reducing China’s capacity to utilize economic coercion in its regional ties would also help lessen the likelihood of regional conflict by denying China additional tools to enforce its expansive maritime and territorial aspirations. Lastly, the document offers U.S. policy suggestions for executing a Quad Plus agenda that enhances multinational deterrence and stability in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years.
Findings Summary
Engaging the Philippines in Quad activities, particularly concerning naval and maritime cooperation, could assist in deterring PRC hostility in the South China Sea and avert the escalation of military tensions that could lead to conflict involving the threat or actual use of WMD. By demonstrating a unified stance in favor of the Philippines and against maritime aggression in the South China Sea, the Quad would increase the costs for China to persist in its hazardous and escalating actions. These collaborative efforts might consist of amplifying the frequency and regularity of joint maritime patrols in the South China Sea, enhancing maritime situational awareness, combating PRC disinformation and propaganda, sharing effective strategies to counter PRC influence operations, and synchronizing public communications regarding China’s maritime aggressions. Should tensions in the South China Sea continue to intensify, convening an official Quad Plus dialogue with the Philippines at a senior diplomatic level may be advantageous to send a decisive message to Beijing that any aggression toward the Philippines will be responded to with a coordinated effort from the Quad.
Contingency planning and collaboration during peacetime among the Quad nations and the Philippines should also prepare them to jointly manage a potential crisis in the Indo-Pacific if deterrence does not succeed. Ultimately, a synchronized response from the five nations could be critical in diffusing the situation and preventing conflict from igniting or escalating.
Strengthened cooperation among the Quad nations and the Philippines could also assist in developing alternative and resilient supply chains that would lessen the opportunities for China to exert economic coercion to attain its security objectives. With the world’s fourth largest copper reserves, fifth largest nickel deposits, and an estimated $1 trillion worth of untapped gold, zinc, and silver reserves, the Philippines is well-positioned to contribute to reducing global reliance on China for critical minerals, provided the government can entice more investments from the Philippine private sector and foreign entities in the exploration, extraction, and processing of its rich mineral resources. Quad investment in the processing of Philippine minerals, in particular, could facilitate the environmentally sustainable growth of the sector and help mitigate China’s ability to exploit its dominance in critical minerals for geostrategic leverage.
Moreover, the Philippines’ anticipated growth in the semiconductor industry (10–15 percent annually over the next three years) signifies its potential role in the Quad’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative, which was launched in September 2021 with the objective of identifying weaknesses in global semiconductor supply chains and enhancing their resilience. Given the significance of semiconductors in developing advanced weapon systems, ensuring resilient semiconductor supply chains through collaboration with partners and allies, such as the Philippines, will bolster U.S. national security and integrated deterrence.
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