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As the new Trump administration assumes power in the White House, there is intense speculation regarding how its strategies will alter NASA’s trajectory and objectives, along with the broader space industry.
Rapid and significant modifications could affect several domains of space, including the future of the agency’s Artemis lunar initiative, which rockets will be prioritized or scrapped, budget allocations for Earth and climate research, and the fundamental functions of NASA itself.
Conflicts will unfold over the upcoming months and years to determine the direction and scope of various U.S. programs and agencies, with competing interests advocating for either budget reductions or increased investment in crucial sectors. Here are some of the key concerns and the elements that could influence their outcomes.
To the moon or Mars?
One of the major concerns — with potentially transformative consequences for NASA’s strategy, America’s connections with its global space collaborators and international relations — is the future of the Artemis initiative. Initiated by the first Trump administration with the intent of returning humans to the moon, and furthered by the departing Biden administration, is significantly delayed, facing scrutiny regarding setbacks and technical challenges.
Related: The implications of a 2nd Trump administration for NASA and space exploration
Elon Musk, the multibillionaire CEO of SpaceX, an active supporter of Trump’s campaign, and co-leader of the new “Department of Government Efficiency,” stated on his social media platform X on Jan. 3 that “we’re going straight to Mars. The moon is a distraction.” However, despite Musk’s apparent sway, it may not be simple to redirect and redefine NASA’s path, as U.S. Congress has a significant role in any progress.
“The new Trump Administration may attempt to bypass the moon and head directly to Mars, but I anticipate they will face the same opposition from Congress that Obama encountered when he suggested that in 2010,” stated Marcia Smith, who has four decades of space policy experience and is the founder and editor of SpacePolicyOnline, in an interview with Space.com. “Congress desires a moon-to-Mars program, not just one or the other.”
Abandoning the moon as a goal would also carry geopolitical consequences, as China is seeking collaborators for its International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), a separate moon initiative.
Nonetheless, some components of Artemis, such as the Gateway, which aims to establish a space station in lunar orbit as a precursor to landing astronauts on the moon, may come under scrutiny from the new administration regarding costs and delays. Such a decision would affect various international allies, like the European Space Agency (ESA), Canadian Space Agency (CSA), and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) already engaged in relevant Gateway infrastructure.
“Whether Gateway continues to be included is another question. I can’t even speculate on what that answer will be,” Smith remarked.
Space Launch System
Another area of uncertainty is the fate of the Space Launch System (SLS), the expendable megarocket of NASA designed for crewed lunar missions. SpaceX is developing the Starship system, which could offer a reusable alternative, but moves to terminate SLS — which has faced criticism for unsustainable expenses and numerous delays, along with quality control issues from the lead contractor Boeing — are likely to face opposition. Musk also expressed his opinions on the Artemis framework, labeling it inefficient.
“The new administration might attempt to cancel SLS, but it has substantial backing in Congress, which established SLS in the first place through the 2010 NASA Authorization Act,” Smith elucidated. Nevertheless, some parts of the system, like the larger and more powerful Block 1B, might face elimination.
“I genuinely doubt that SLS as a whole will be terminated, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Block IB is discontinued in favor of commercial alternatives that weren’t even being considered in 2010, but are coming into operation now,” she remarked.
Related: Trump could cancel NASA’s powerful SLS moon rocket — here’s what that would signify for Elon Musk and the future of space travel
A new NASA administrator
Donald Trump has selected billionaire tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman has already participated in two commercial spaceflights utilizing SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft, organizing, financing, and commanding both missions.
Isaacman will need to be officially nominated and subsequently endorsed by the U.S. Senate. Smith reported that the anticipated nomination has already garnered backing from Republicans, though not without criticism regarding Isaacman’s previous campaign contributions to Democratic candidates.
While he would have to accommodate decisions made by Congress, Isaacman could introduce his own opinions and preferences to NASA at what may be a pivotal time for the agency.
The US Space Force
The U.S. Space Force, which was instituted by the previous Trump administration in December 2019, will probably undergo modifications during the new administration. Currently stationed in Colorado, it may be relocated. Its funding levels could also become a contentious topic as priorities and specifics are debated in Congress.
“Securing funding for Space Force or any other government initiative will be one of the pivotal confrontations this year, not only between Democrats and Republicans but also within the Republican party,” stated Smith. “Congressional defense advocates are seeking substantial increases in defense budgets while stringent Republicans are entirely fixated on reducing national debt.”
The two positions are incompatible, she pointed out. “Regarding the relocation of Space Command from Colorado to Alabama, it’s nearly a certainty.”
Climate and Earth sciences
The initial Trump Administration endeavored to significantly restrict NASA’s Earth science initiatives, but Congress rejected those reductions each year.
“It’s challenging to predict how far Congress would go this time to shield those NASA programs, but the larger confrontation is likely to center around NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration],” remarked Smith. NOAA performs work and research associated with weather, climate, and other fields.
The return of the Trump administration heralds a tumultuous and transformative phase for NASA and the broader U.S. space industry. With discussions intensifying about the future of Artemis, the involvement of commercial entities like SpaceX, the destiny of major initiatives like the Space Launch System, and NASA’s obligations to climate science, the stakes appear significant. The choices made in the upcoming months will echo through U.S. space policy.
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