Soaring Towards Sustainability: Decarbonizing Latin America’s Aviation Industry

As per the International Energy Agency, aviation constitutes roughly 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, with projections indicating that aviation emissions may double by mid-century due to heightened demand for both domestic and international air travel. To significantly lower emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement’s long-term aim of keeping global warming beneath 1.5 degrees Celsius, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has established a target for achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This prompts the inquiry: Are there technologically attainable and economically feasible methods to achieve that target within the next 25 years?

To initiate addressing this inquiry, a research team at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3) along with the MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment has spent the preceding year examining options for aviation decarbonization in Latin America, where air travel is anticipated to more than triple by 2050, consequently doubling the aviation-related emissions currently present in the region.

Leading among these options is the creation and implementation of sustainable aviation fuel. Presently produced from low- and zero-carbon sources (feedstock) including municipal waste and non-food crops, and requiring almost no modification of aircraft systems or refueling infrastructure, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has the potential to perform comparably to petroleum-based jet fuel with as little as 20 percent of its carbon footprint.

Concentrating on Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru, the researchers evaluated SAF feedstock availability, the costs associated with relevant SAF pathways, and the projected impacts of SAF deployment on fuel utilization, pricing, emissions, and aviation demand within each nation. They also investigated how enhancements in efficiency and market-oriented mechanisms could assist the region in achieving decarbonization objectives. The results of the team’s study are published in a CS3 Special Report.

SAF emissions, costs, and sources

In an ambitious emissions reduction scenario aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 C and increasing the SAF utilization rate in Latin America to 65 percent by 2050, the researchers predicted aviation emissions to drop by approximately 60 percent in 2050 compared to a scenario where existing climate policies are not enhanced. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would necessitate additional measures, such as improvements in operational and air traffic efficiencies, renewal of the airplane fleet, alternate propulsion methods, and carbon offsets and removals.

As of 2024, jet fuel prices in Latin America hover around $0.70 per liter. Based on the present availability of feedstocks, the researchers predicted SAF costs across the six nations studied to range from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter. They cautioned that rising fuel prices could influence the operational costs of the aviation sector and overall aviation demand unless measures to manage price increases are set in place.

Under the 1.5 C scenario, the total cumulative capital investments needed to establish new SAF production facilities from 2025 to 2050 were estimated at $204 billion for the six countries (ranging from $5 billion in Ecuador to $84 billion in Brazil). The researchers identified sugarcane- and corn-derived ethanol-to-jet fuel, palm oil, and soybean-based hydro-processed esters and fatty acids as the most promising feedstock sources for SAF production in the near future in Latin America.

“Our results indicate that SAF provides a substantial decarbonization route, which must be supplemented with an economy-wide emissions reduction approach that employs market-based mechanisms to offset the remaining emissions,” says Sergey Paltsev, the lead author of the report, MIT CS3 deputy director, and senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative.

Recommendations

The researchers concluded the report with suggested actions for national policymakers and aviation industry leaders in Latin America.

They emphasized that governmental policy and regulatory frameworks will be essential to establish adequate conditions for attracting SAF investments in the region and making SAF commercially feasible as the aviation sector transitions to decarbonization. Without suitable policy frameworks, SAF requirements could impact air travel costs. For fuel producers, stable, long-term-focused policies and regulations will be vital for developing robust supply chains, cultivating demand to achieve economies of scale, and fostering innovative avenues for SAF production.

In conclusion, the research team advised a collaborative effort across the region in crafting SAF policies. A coordinated decarbonization strategy among all countries in the region will aid in securing competitiveness, achieving economies of scale, and meeting long-term carbon emissions-reduction targets.

“Regional feedstock availability and pricing position Latin America as a potential major contributor in SAF production,” states Angelo Gurgel, a principal research scientist at MIT CS3 and co-author of the study. “SAF requirements, coupled with governmental support mechanisms, will ensure sustainable decarbonization while enhancing regional connectivity and improving access to air transport for underprivileged communities.”

Financial backing for this research was provided by LATAM Airlines and Airbus.