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Gaming the unknown: studying to distinguish and reply to uncertainty via a severe sport

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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41527578/
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doi: 10.1038/s44168-025-00331-5.


Epub 2026 Jan 10.

Affiliations

Item in Clipboard

Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer et al.


NPJ Clim Action.


2026.

Abstract

Effective local weather adaptation planning requires understanding numerous sources and sorts of uncertainty. We investigated how a severe sport can enhance individuals’ understanding of uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Using mixed-methods with pre-post surveys and debriefing periods, we engaged 55 college college students in an adaptation pathways sport simulating regional planning challenges over 5 a long time with disruptive occasions. Results confirmed individuals shifted from appreciating uncertainty as both environmental or institutional, to incorporating political shifts, institutional dynamics, and implementation challenges. Participants most well-liked versatile methods over state of affairs optimization, with political disruptions producing stronger reactions than environmental shocks. Cognitive studying about uncertainty sorts facilitated normative studying results, shifting strategic preferences. Participants recognizing numerous uncertainty dimensions grew to become much less assured in controlling outcomes, favouring extra versatile and resilient methods. Our findings, with contextual limitations, point out severe video games may assist stakeholders develop an appreciation for adaptation approaches that keep a number of choices in parallel over single-pathway sequential options below uncertainty.


Keywords:

Environmental social sciences; Psychology.

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Conflict of curiosity assertion

Competing pursuitsThe authors declare no competing pursuits.

Figures


Fig. 1



Fig. 1

steps within the severe sport experimental set-up.


Fig. 2



Fig. 2

Initial set-up of the intense sport based mostly on the NL2120 imaginative and prescient by Baptist et al. The map simulated an archetypical sandy soil panorama of the japanese Netherlands, with forest on the extra elevated and drier areas, housing on the flanks and agriculture within the wetter brook valley. The white squares indicated land-use sorts, the groundwater desk and potential soil or water high quality enchancment choices. The map was initially altered for the intense sport by Prins.


Fig. 3



Fig. 3

largest uncertainty in projecting local weather change in accordance with individuals based mostly on a a number of selection query earlier than and after the sport.


Fig. 4



Fig. 4. Change in notion on what flexibility means in adaptation planning evaluating solutions pre- and post-game.

Calculated utilizing the distinction between the pre- and post-game solutions to the multiple-choice query on what flexibility in adaptation planning means.


Fig. 5



Fig. 5. Thematic evaluation of solutions to open survey questions.

The proportion represents the variety of individuals mentioning a theme of their open solutions compared to the whole group (N = 55).


Fig. 6



Fig. 6

Most incessantly chosen sources of uncertainty by individuals based mostly on a closed query asking individuals to pick the three most necessary sources of uncertainty.


Fig. 7



Fig. 7. Combined noticed studying themes from the research, encompassing each cognitive and normative dimensions.

Cognitive studying is represented by 5 themes: Systems Thinking (understanding interdependencies and cascading results), Uncertainty Recognition (acknowledging numerous types of uncertainty past local weather), Temporal Dynamics (recognizing adaptation as an iterative, time-sensitive course of), Implementation Challenges (understanding the hole between planning and apply), and Interconnections (seeing how programs and stakeholders mutually affect outcomes). Normative studying is represented by 5 themes: Flexibility Preference (valuing adaptable over inflexible approaches), Resilience Values (adopting resilience as a tenet), Ethical Considerations (emphasizing equity and duty in adaptation selections), Long-term Thinking (prioritizing generational over short-term views), and Institutional Alignment (valuing coordination throughout organizations and governance ranges).

References

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    1. Bardsley, D. Okay., Wiseman, N. D. & Hugo, G. J. Generating narratives on future threat to tell regional local weather change adaptation planning. Climate adaptation governance in cities and areas: Theoretical fundamentals and sensible proof, 89–112 (2016).

    1. Colloff, M. J. et al. Adaptation providers and pathways for the administration of temperate montane forests below transformational local weather change. Clim. Change138, 267–282 (2016).

    1. Wise, R. M. et al. Reconceptualising adaptation to local weather change as a part of pathways of change and response. Glob. Environ. Change28, 325–336 (2014).


This web page was created programmatically, to learn the article in its unique location you may go to the hyperlink bellow:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41527578/
and if you wish to take away this text from our website please contact us