The Iranian Opposition’s Pressing Job

The Iranian opposition has by no means lacked for a standard enemy. The Islamic Republic has furnished no finish of shared grievances, annoyed hopes, and collective traumas. And but, its adversaries have lengthy sorted themselves into mutually hostile subgroups. Now the deepest rupture is between those that help former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a transitional determine and people who oppose him.

Perversely, this division may show to be the one which heals.

Last Saturday, in Grapevine, Texas, Pahlavi spoke to throngs of his supporters on the Conservative Political Action Conference. Iranians made up a big proportion of CPAC attendees this yr, and so they greeted Pahlavi with passionate cheers.

In his speech, Pahlavi pledged to steer a transition to a “free and democratic Iran.” He known as on President Trump to proceed the American-Israeli army operation in opposition to Iran, within the hope of displacing a regime he decried for putting a “sea of blood” between itself and its folks. “President Trump is making America great again,” he concluded. “I intend to make Iran great again.”

Arash Azizi: The ‘existential anxiety’ of the Islamic Republic

Pahlavi’s star flip in Texas showcased each the enchantment and the constraints of his venture.

He rallied a formidable variety of supporters, who shouted his identify at CPAC simply as their counterparts did in road demonstrations in Iran. But his unbridled help for the struggle and his chumminess with the American proper have made him a polarizing determine amongst Iranians. Worse, the American president he praised and beseeched has proven little belief in Pahlavi and appears way more considering coping with the present management in Tehran.

The day of Pahlavi’s CPAC speech, I used to be in London, the place about 400 Iranians who opposed the regime however had been skeptical of Pahlavi had gathered for the launch of one thing known as the Iran Freedom Congress. The teams represented in London had spent years in bitter arguments with each other. The process of the congress was to discover the potential for constructing a shared political car.

In the 20 years I’ve spent observing and taking part in Iranian opposition politics, I had by no means seen a gathering so broadly consultant because the one in London. Perhaps that was partially as a result of the occasion’s most important organizer was not himself a member of anybody diaspora activist group; quite, he was a tech entrepreneur and former World Bank analyst named Majid Zamani, who had spent greater than 5 months in jail for supporting road protests in 2009.

Zamani’s organizing staff included such numerous companions as Shariar Ahy, a monarchist and disgruntled former adviser to Pahlavi; Reza Alijani, a religious-nationalist author; the filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf; Esmayil Abdi, a former instructor and a commerce unionist; Mahdie Golrou, a former scholar activist and a secular feminist; and the leaders of a number of the political events of Iran’s ethnic minorities.

Some of those that got here to London had been seasoned exiles, however others, together with Zamani himself, had been more moderen arrivals from Iran and had strong hyperlinks to political figures contained in the nation. Among the individuals had been socialists, ex-royalists, liberals, feminists, and nationalists. (I’d been invited as a tutorial and paid my very own means, although the organizers had supplied a full journey to all). Many of us had confronted each other in on-line or televised debates prior to now. In London, we listened to 1 one other’s speeches and sipped espresso collectively throughout breaks. The notion that we’d someday be a part of the identical coalition didn’t appear so far-fetched.

The London convention was not the primary of its form. More than 700 Iranians got here collectively in Berlin in 2004 to discovered the United Republicans of Iran. That group nonetheless exists (and its leaders attended the London assembly), however most of the authentic individuals dropped out of it due to variations over ways and technique, and the group that is still is small and ineffectual.

The circumstances of this second, nevertheless, confront the non-royalist Iranian opposition with a brand new urgency. Iran is at struggle, and its regime, after massacring protesters in January, has now hardened in fight. And then there’s Pahlavi. The former crown prince has proven little curiosity in working with others until they first settle for his mantle. Last yr, his group organized a gathering in Munich the place audio system professed their loyalty to the would-be king; one even prostrated himself earlier than Pahlavi within the model of the Muslim prayer, declaring that he had “no religion” however that Pahlavi was his “Mecca.” Many within the former crown prince’s camp take a sharply antagonistic stance towards the remainder of the opposition.

As a outcome, folks in rival teams appear now to know that they should come collectively if they’re to supply an alternate. (Zamani’s organizers invited Pahlavi to the London gathering, however there was by no means an actual probability that he would present up.) London was a step in that route.

From the May 2026 problem: Someday in Tehran

Bringing the non-monarchist opposition collectively was a feat. But uniting it round a standard program shall be tougher. The congress averted pushing resolutions or holding debates on essentially the most contentious political questions. Chief amongst these was the struggle, which a lot of these current, notably these on the left, strongly opposed; others, together with some from the Kurdish events, argued that ending the struggle beneath present circumstances may assist extend the regime. The attendees additionally differed over the way forward for the congress itself—whether or not it ought to merely present a discussion board for dialogue amongst activists or change into a membership group and a united political entrance.

The Iranian regime is deeply unpopular with its populace. Four waves of protest since 2017 have explicitly demanded its overthrow. But the opposition has lacked a company and consultant leaders. If it desires to have any probability of dislodging the regime, it should construct a disciplined pressure that may overcome its variations to unite round a standard agenda. It should additionally forge hyperlinks with the opposition inside Iran and maybe even with parts throughout the regime who may assist ease an eventual transition.

The London assembly made me hopeful that such a trajectory simply is likely to be potential. But obstacles stay. As if to remind us of this, because the assembly wrapped up, Pahlavi supporters surrounded the constructing to protest the congress. Fearful of a violent confrontation, the London police escorted us out a again door.