Numerical Showdown: A Deep Dive into the Las Vegas Bowl Stats!

Hello and welcome back to Fun With Numbers. I trust that everyone reading has had an enjoyable holiday season and has savored the bowl games thus far. We are here to delve into the intricate statistics of the Las Vegas Bowl, putting a wrap on an Aggie season that appeared promising towards the end but concluded with a 1-3 record, marking the finish of Mike Elko’s inaugural season as the head coach of the Aggies. While there are several reasons to feel disheartened and worried, there are also numerous aspects to anticipate in the forthcoming seasons, which we’ll discuss later. For now… Viva Las Vegas.

What Are the Insights?

The Aggies head to Vegas this week for a confrontation with Lincoln Riley’s USC team. The Trojans wrapped up their maiden campaign in the Big Ten with a 6-6 record, showcasing a rollercoaster season that included a 3-game losing streak during October. The Aggies are favored by 3.5 points in the city where they compete; the SP+ forecasts a 6-point victory for the Maroon and White, while the FEI favors the Trojans by half a point. Similar to numerous teams (the Aggies included), the Trojans are facing adjustments in their depth chart due to NFL opt-outs and the transfer portal. This complicates statistical comparisons, but we’ll persevere and enjoy the process. Let’s examine this further.

Aggie Offense vs Trojan Defense

In spite of occasional inconsistency and challenges in creating explosive plays, the Aggies are set to conclude with an offense ranked in the Top 30 of the SP+ and FEI. Klein’s debut year as the Aggies’ offensive coordinator wasn’t flawless, but given the injuries endured (including your top two running backs) and the ongoing quarterback changes, there is much to be hopeful about for next year.

They aim to finish on a positive note, going up against what has been the most significant highlight for Trojan supporters… the remarkable enhancement of the USC Defense. In 2023, USC had entirely dropped out of the Top 100 in DSP+, yet they have made substantial progress in D’Anton Lynn’s inaugural season as defensive coordinator. The secondary still needs considerable improvement, but they displayed much stronger performance against the run and have excelled in limiting significant plays.

Aggie Defense vs Trojan Offense

The Aggie defense may not have been exceptional in Elko’s first tenure back in College Station, but it was certainly not poor. Improvements in the secondary and linebacker performance are necessary to contain explosive plays, and what was anticipated to be a dominating defensive line often failed to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, yet as a unit they were quite effective and adept at creating disruptions when it was crucial.

Similarly, the Trojan defense was solid, but not as prolific as one has come to expect under Lincoln Riley. Finding a successor for Caleb Williams has proven to be difficult; Miller Moss has entered the transfer portal, which will likely place the onus on Jayden Maiava to lead the Trojans in Vegas this week. The sophomore did just enough to secure victories against Nebraska and UCLA but threw two interceptions against Notre Dame in that 49-35 defeat. Like the Aggies, explosiveness has not been their strong suit this season, yet they have been notably efficient and excelled in the run game, with the offensive line effectively protecting their quarterback.

So What’s the Conclusion?

As previously mentioned, the number of players absent from both sides in this matchup complicates predictions. Specifically concerning the Aggie Defense and Trojan Offense, there will be missing components that may lead to failures, while new faces could unexpectedly make impressive plays. I believe that even with the losses the Aggies will experience in the front seven, the defense will perform adequately to contain the damage inflicted by a compromised USC offense. Moreover, even in the absence of Moss, the Aggies should effectively advance the ball on the ground, with ample chances to challenge a somewhat vulnerable secondary with short passes.

My Prediction: I anticipate that the Aggies’ red zone defense will prove crucial, allowing only key field goals and enabling the Aggies to triumph with a score of 27-20.

As always, I appreciate you following along. Thank you for spending time with me this season. There has been a mix of positives and negatives—the true nature of Aggie Football. I’m looking forward to seeing you again soon. Gig’em.

• Bcftoys.com offers Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other intriguing projects he’s working on.
• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ information, including the Returning Production data. For most of his content, a subscription to ESPN+ is necessary these days.
• CollegeFootballData.com is an excellent resource for data and charts that you can download and explore at your convenience, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t satisfying that statistical craving in your life. Much of my data originates from this site.

Questions? Comments? Critiques? You know where to share them.