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2024 proved to be an eventful year for solar updates, but what should we anticipate for 2025?
In April, a total solar eclipse captivated millions in North America. Following this, in May, the largest geomagnetic storm in two decades was triggered by a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that resulted in widespread auroras at both northern and southern latitudes. This afforded millions globally their first glimpse of the aurora.
In October, elevated levels of solar activity once again instigated a powerful geomagnetic storm at Earth, leading to another broad display of low-latitude auroras. In the aftermath of this occurrence, NASA and NOAA published a joint announcement confirming that we are officially in the solar maximum phase of the ongoing solar cycle — Solar Cycle 25.
Comprehending solar cycles
Solar activity fluctuates cyclically over an 11-year solar cycle. Every cycle commences and concludes during phases of minimal solar activity, featuring a peak of solar activity at its center. The phases of low and high activity are termed solar minimum and solar maximum respectively.
Historically, Solar Cycle 1 transpired between 1755 and 1766, positioning the sun‘s ongoing cycle in Solar Cycle 25. By the end of 2024, we are solidly situated within the solar maximum phase. However, the definitive solar maximum is recognized as the month with the highest 13-month smoothed sunspot count.
The smoothed sunspot figure, illustrated as the purple line in the graph below (sourced from NOAA’s Solar Cycle Progression webpage), contrasts with the black curve representing monthly sunspot observations. As the smoothed value is derived as a 13-month rolling average, the most recent data lags six months behind the present date. Therefore, the specific solar maximum will not be recognized until several months — perhaps a year — after it happens. Due to this, and owing to the unpredictability of forthcoming sunspot figures, we will remain unaware of when the specific solar maximum took place until many months later (potentially up to a year).
What we can ascertain is that Solar Cycle 25’s peak has already exceeded that of Solar Cycle 24, which reached its peak in 2014. This signifies that recent months represent the most vigorous solar phase since 2002, around the peak of Solar Cycle 23.
What is on the horizon for 2025?
The sun dazzled us in 2024 with a total solar eclipse and extensive auroras. Regrettably, 2025 will not showcase any total solar eclipses, although partial eclipses will occur in March and September, observable from certain regions of North America, Europe, and New Zealand. Nonetheless, additional opportunities for widespread auroras will likely arise as robust solar activity persists.
Even if the peak of solar maximum has passed (it might have, but we cannot confirm yet), 2025 will remain within the prolonged phase of intensified solar activity surrounding solar maximum. While precise levels of solar activity cannot be forecasted, elevated sunspot numbers are expected, along with an increased probability of substantial solar flares and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). An extreme G5 geomagnetic storm occurred in May 2024, followed by a potent G4 storm in October. Another significant geomagnetic storm (G4 or higher) could materialize in 2025. However, these occurrences can only be predicted 1–4 days in advance, depending on the identification and velocity of Earth-directed CMEs.
Historically, significant solar flares and geomagnetic storms are more prevalent during the declining phase post-solar maximum. For example, Solar Cycle 24 experienced its largest solar flares (X13.3 and X11.9) three years after its 2014 peak, in 2017. As of mid-December 2024, the most powerful solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 was an X9.0 incident on October 3, 2024.
More significant flares have been recorded by ESA’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft on the far side of the sun, but the October 3 occurrence remains the most potent observed by instruments on Earth. Given the current magnitude of Solar Cycle 25, it is probable that even more intense flares may appear before the cycle concludes.
Related: Aurora activity is just beginning. Here’s why the best northern lights are still to come.
Effects of solar activity
While the solar activity of 2024 resulted in breathtaking auroras, it also had adverse effects. During the October briefing by NASA and NOAA, it was disclosed that May’s intense geomagnetic storm disrupted satellite navigation systems, resulting in a financial setback of half a billion dollars for the U.S. agricultural sector — which largely relies on automation. Furthermore, the event placed a strain on power grids globally, although without major interruptions.
The preceding extreme geomagnetic storm in 2003 inflicted damage on power grids in Sweden and South Africa. With intensified solar activity extending into 2025, industries dependent on satellites and power grids remain vigilant for potential solar impacts.
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