Unearthing Kessler Syndrome: Is Our Orbit on the Brink of Chaos?


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Inactive satellites and various debris frequently stay in orbit around Earth, forming an expanding space refuse pile that threatens our prospects in space. Here’s what actions are being taken to address it.

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For decades, nations engaged in space endeavors have been launching countless satellites and other items into orbit, which have become a crucial part of contemporary society.

From hundreds of miles above our planet, satellites enable scientists to gather data regarding our Earth and the vast universe surrounding it, and they even grant us access to broadcast and entertainment.

However, what occurs when these aging satellites cease to operate and become obsolete?

Many of those objects—or remnants of them—still linger in orbit, enduring above Earth in an ever-growing space junkyard. Retired satellites are frequently abandoned in low-Earth orbit due to the high costs associated with their removal, where they constitute a rising threat to both future satellite deployments and crewed space endeavors, as indicated by NASA.

In November of this year, an approaching piece of space debris necessitated action from the International Space Station to effectively evade danger. A Russian cargo vessel docked at the ISS activated its thrusters for more than five minutes to “provide an extra margin of distance” from the debris chunk, according to NASA. While the incoming item—a fragment from a decommissioned weather satellite—was not necessarily on a collision trajectory with the station, this evasive maneuver offered an additional safety buffer for it to pass by unharmed.

This accumulation of flotsam in space could lead to a hypothetical situation referred to as Kessler Syndrome. Here’s what you should be aware of regarding space debris, the challenges it presents, and the measures being taken to address the issue.

What constitutes space junk?

Commonly referred to as space debris, space junk consists of malfunctioning satellites and other man-made items that persist in orbit around Earth long after they have fulfilled their purpose.

Spacecraft, expended rocket stages, and even lost toolkits from astronauts can amalgamate with obsolete satellites to generate a cloud of orbital debris that remains for decades.

Since the inception of the space age in the 1950s, humanity has propelled approximately 50,000 tons of material into space, as reported by the ESA, which referenced data from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. The aggregate weight of all space objects in orbit is estimated to exceed 13,000 tons as of September 2024. Out of the 19,590 satellites launched into orbit since 1957, 13,230 of them—of which 10,200 remain operational—continue to zip around space at high velocities as of September, according to the space agency.

Moreover, the frequency of satellite launches is escalating.

Why is space junk an issue?

What is the peril of all these new items being launched into space?

When combined with the numerous satellites that have existed for decades, the ESA warns that the increasing risk of collisions jeopardizes humanity’s long-term prospects in space.

In a 2009 occurrence, two satellites collided over Siberia. Not only were both satellites—one of which remained operational—obliterated, but the collision resulted in a significant increase in debris.

in the procedure, as per a report at the time from the American Scientist.

As of December 2022, the International Space Station had evaded space debris 32 occasions since 1999, according to a quarterly report in 2022 by NASA. By October 2023, this number had surged to 37 orbital debris avoidance maneuvers, with two occurring in August of that year alone.

When the ISS navigated away from space debris in November this year, it represented its 39th Pre-Determined Avoidance Maneuver.

Scientists also indicate that it is not rare for some of these objects to fall back to Earth.

Earlier this year, a family in Naples, Florida, filed a claim against NASA for over $80,000 in damages to their residence following a piece of space debris from the International Space Station penetrating through their roof.

What is the Kessler Syndrome?

All of these factors culminate in the probability, as warned by the ESA, that a hypothetical scenario referred to as the Kessler Syndrome may materialize: If left unregulated, the escalating waste and ensuing chain of collisions could render Earth’s orbit uninhabitable for space exploration.

“We are observing a significantly heightened utilization of space, yet still inadequate technology to mitigate the accompanying hazards,” Holger Krag, head of Space Safety at ESA, stated in a statement from last year.

What are NASA, ESA, and others doing regarding space debris?

The initiative to address the perilous debris racing through outer space appears to have gained momentum in recent years.

Numerous scientists have raised alarms for years concerning Earth’s swiftly overcrowded orbit, but now the European Space Agency, NASA, and various organizations worldwide are beginning to take decisive measures. Last year, ESA adopted the Zero Debris Charter, which aims for a global commitment to nearly eliminate so-called space debris by 2030.

“As space infrastructure has become integral to our contemporary society, the growth of space debris endangers our way of life,” Director General Josef Aschbacher expressed in a statement at that time. “Now is the moment to act collectively to direct our shared efforts.”

In the United States, NASA operates its own Orbital Debris Program based in Houston, Texas, focused on producing less orbital debris and creating equipment to track and retrieve space junk.

A previous iteration of this article was published in November 2023.

Contributing: Max Hauptman, USA TODAY

Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Connect with him at [email protected]


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