SpaceX’s Ambitious Moon Trio: Aiming for Lunar Triumph in 2025!

As we approach the end of launches for 2024, we are examining what lies ahead in 2025. January appears to be an exhilarating period for lunar enthusiasts, as three enterprises will commence their missions aiming to land on the Moon, ideally in a gentle manner.

NASA receives two additional opportunities for first soft CLPS landing

Every year seems to bring new challengers for sending commercial landers to the Moon. NASA is firmly committed to returning to the Moon with the aid of commercial allies, a shift overall embraced by the industry. Achievements have been made, with each endeavor by commercial landers inching closer to a flawless mission.

Although there haven’t been any soft touchdowns yet, Intuitive Machines’ inaugural mission in February managed to survive its landing at an angle and was able to fulfill some scientific goals.

Intuitive Machines is anticipated to make its upcoming lunar landing attempt in January; however, it has not provided any mission updates for an extended period. The delivery of the lander is expected a few weeks post-launch, and from what we can publicly ascertain, it remains undelivered.

The objective for IM-2 will be to discover some ice at the southern lunar pole. It will carry two payloads that will assist in this endeavor. The first is PRIME-1, a subsurface drill equipped with a mass spectrometer. As the drill extracts material from beneath the surface, there’s hope that some water ice may have endured from being ejected from a nearby crater. The second payload is a Micro-Rover, unfortunately unnamed, that hops instead of rolls. NASA anticipates this tiny rover may reach a permanently shaded area within the crater and detect water ice there.

While the drill has high ambitions for achievement, the rover is likely to have a greater chance of finding ice. This is attributed to IM-2’s landing location being too warm to preserve surface ice. However, that added sunlight will enable IM-2 to function for up to 10 days before the lunar night strips it of its power source and warmth.

IM-2 is set to launch aboard a Falcon 9 rocket, the current go-to commercial launch vehicle, alongside NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer orbiter. This cost-effective secondary payload will also search for ice on the lunar surface, albeit from a height.

Firefly to undertake first landing with Blue Ghost

Launching in January on a Falcon 9 rocket is Firefly‘s Blue Ghost lander. This will mark the company’s inaugural mission for its lander. Both Firefly and Intuitive Machines are undertaking these missions under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract. This strategy by NASA aims to motivate companies to develop lunar capabilities.

Onboard Firefly’s “Ghost Riders in the Sky” mission will be a multitude of NASA scientific payloads. Unlike IM-2, Firefly’s mission won’t be focused on a singular objective. The payloads will examine various aspects, including the lunar surface, solar phenomena, and even Earth. With numerous CLPS missions, the risk remains significant as most of these missions do not achieve success on their initial attempt.

Japan embarking independently for follow-up landing endeavor

Completing the trio of landing missions in January is i-space‘s second Hakuto-R lunar lander. It will share a ride with Firefly, aiming to retry for a successful touchdown on the lunar surface. i-space’s first mission encountered failure after losing communication before landing, resulting in the lander crashing onto the surface.

Not much information has been publicly disclosed regarding the scientific aims of Mission 2 apart from it including a lunar rover, this time equipped with actual wheels. i-space has outlined its goals for determining the level of success. There are a total of 10, and according to the first one, Mission 2 is already deemed a success.

Additionally, there exists a compilation of “Projects” that i-space has organized for objectives after landing. This encompasses deploying the rover and obtaining a sample of lunar regolith for NASA. Although the sample will be gathered, it will not be returning. NASA has engaged with multiple companies to accomplish this. It serves as a sort of test to determine if commercial enterprises could, in the future, collect lunar regolith if required.

Firefly’s and i-space’s launch is scheduled for “mid-January,” and both are positioned in Florida, prepared for SpaceX integration. Despite being asked numerous times during a press conference last week, neither Firefly nor NASA disclosed a no-earlier-than launch date.

Will any of these landers succeed?

Landing on the Moon has proven to be quite challenging for commercial companies, along with some nations. Among the three landers currently on their way in early 2025, Intuitive Machines holds the highest probability of success, as it has technically landed on the Moon previously. Given that this is i-space’s second mission, it also has a solid chance of making a successful landing.

While Firefly appears optimistic about achieving a gentle landing on its inaugural mission, and I sincerely hope they succeed, the odds may not be in their favor. Nonetheless, the company has likely dedicated more time compared to other CLPS contract recipients towards landing on the Moon. Thus, they might just pull it off.

All three landers will require several months to elevate their orbits sufficiently to reach the Moon. Therefore, although they are slated for launch next month, don’t anticipate any updates from them for some time.