“Electrifying Showdown: Maple Leafs Set to Spark Excitement Against Lightning!”

Game Forty-five: Tampa Bay Lightning (25-16-3) at Toronto Maple Leafs (29-16-2)

Time: 7:30 PM EST

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

TV/Stream/Radio: FDSNSUN, TVAS, NHL Network, Prime (in Canada), 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -105

Learn About the Rivals: Pension Plan Puppets

Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a record of 5-1-1 in their last seven matches. It doesn’t seem that way, does it? The Lightning haven’t been playing the most refined hockey during this recent stretch, but they’ve managed to collect points. The ability to rise in the standings even when not performing at full capacity is a trait of strong teams. We’re not claiming they’re an exceptional team; exceptional teams consistently perform at their peak, but such teams are rare. Poor teams perform poorly and fail to earn points (they can also play well and still not get points).

Thus, the Lightning find themselves caught in a crowded group of above-average teams vying for a playoff berth. The Maple Leafs have maintained a comfortable distance from the chaos for most of the season, with their 60 points placing them eight points clear of the wild card scramble. Four of those points were earned at the expense of the Lightning as Toronto has beaten them twice this season. Therefore, the Bolts should feel sufficiently motivated to deliver a robust performance in order to defeat the division leaders.

This season hasn’t been the only one of difficulties against the Leafs. In the last three seasons, the Lightning hold a record of 3-4-2 against them, having been outscored 36-31. Not to mention, there was the 2023 playoff series where the Leafs put an end to the Lightning’s attempt at a fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance by defeating them in six games in the opening round. So yes, the Lightning are eager to get a win over them tonight.

This matchup will serve as a significant test since the Leafs are a physical (24.73 hits per game, ranked 6th in the league), shot-blocking (15.97 per game, ranked 9th in the league) team that knows how to score (3.13 goals per game, ranked 11th in the league). They excel in special teams (21.6% power play, 81.4% penalty kill). They’ve endured some challenges, particularly with Auston Matthews having participated in only 32 games, and John Tavares currently missing from the lineup.

Unlike in previous years, they are not entirely dependent on the Core Four. No doubt, Matthews leads with 35 points, and Mitch Marner has 64, while Lightning nemesis Willy Nylander tops the squad with 27 goals. So, they are definitely contributing, but Matthew Knies has netted 16 goals and Bobby McMann has 13. This situation will make it challenging for Coach Cooper to match lines tonight unless the Lightning can generate some offense from their bottom-six players.

The performance from the mixed third and fourth lines was variable. Eyssimont, Geekie, and Girgensons created five shots while allowing five shots against, but were out-chanced 4-2. Chaffee, Glendening, and Atkinson were dominated possession-wise, registering 12-1 in shot attempts, and 8-1 in scoring chances, though they managed to score on their single shot. They cannot afford to replicate that against the Leafs tonight.

Of course, if the stars perform at their potential, it may not matter how Atkinson and his line perform. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy have the capability to dominate games. If they’re at their peak, the Lightning stand a solid chance of securing a win. During their seven-game stretch, they have four players averaging a point per game or more:

Nikita Kucherov – 4 goals, 9 assists

Brandon Hagel – 3 goals, 4 assists

Victor Hedman – 2 goals, 5 assists

Jake Guentzel – 2 goals, 5 assists

Meanwhile, Brayden Point has netted four goals, and Anthony Cirelli has three. In the last two games, the Ducks and Red Wings allowed the top lines some space in the offensive zone, which the Bolts capitalized on. Don’t expect that kind of leniency from Toronto tonight.

Special teams may also play a crucial role. The Leafs have a strong penalty kill but are averaging over three penalties against per game. The revamped Lightning power play has converted on four of their last eight chances in the past two outings.

This is a critical period in the season for the Bolts. Saturday’s matchup marked the beginning of four divisional contests within their next five. They haven’t performed at their best within the division, with a record of 3-6 as of now this season. As Brian Engblom repeatedly highlighted during the game against Detroit, these are four-point games. If Tampa Bay can claim three or four of them, they will find breathing room in the standings.

A victory tonight will also reaffirm that the Lightning remain a strong contender in the Eastern Conference.

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