Real or not: Why every 2025 MLB contender can (or cannot) win all of it

Does anybody wish to win the World Series? Is any MLB crew going to step up and make itself the postseason favourite? In what’s shaping up as probably the most wide-open postseason in latest historical past, each playoff crew or contender is both scuffling, going through key damage points or has simply suffered one of many craziest defeats of the previous 60 years (we imply you, Los Angeles Dodgers).

How upside-down is the baseball world proper now? Two of the very best groups for the reason that All-Star break have been the Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Dodgers have solely two extra wins than the Colorado Rockies for the reason that break. We’re positively headed for a wild and unpredictable October.

With that in thoughts, let us take a look at every of the main playoff contenders and verify why every crew can — or can’t — win all of it. We centered on the 14 groups which have the very best shot, although there are a variety of others — together with the Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals — that might nonetheless make the postseason.

THE FAVORITES

Real or not: The Brewers do not hit sufficient dwelling runs to win the World Series.

Years in the past, in explaining why Billy Beane’s Oakland Athletics had didn’t advance to the World Series within the early 2000s, former ESPN analyst Joe Morgan argued that groups “have to manufacture runs in the postseason.” The A’s performed station-to-station baseball, drawing walks and hitting dwelling runs. “If you sit and wait for a three-run homer, you’re still going to be sitting there,” Morgan added.

Well, Morgan would love the Brewers’ postseason possibilities as they have not relied on dwelling runs to generate their offense, rating nineteenth within the majors in homers regardless of rating second in runs scored. The drawback is: Morgan was incorrect then along with his evaluation, and he’d be incorrect now. Home runs are a key to postseason success. Here’s the report for groups that outhomer their opponent previously 4 postseasons:

2021: 25-2
2022: 22-6
2023: 25-3
2024: 23-8

Add it up, and groups are 95-19 when hitting extra dwelling runs. That statistic is a little bit deceptive, nonetheless, as a result of there have been 47 postseason video games since 2021 when groups hit an equal variety of dwelling runs. So, a greater method to put it may be: If you don’t outhomer your opponents (that means you hit fewer or the identical variety of dwelling runs), you continue to gained 66 of the 161 of the postseason video games performed, or 41%. For the Brewers, the important thing then may very well be to win the video games the place they hit the identical variety of dwelling runs as their opponent.

Verdict: REAL. Now, there are two situations right here that may nonetheless work within the Brewers’ favor. Their pitchers do not enable quite a lot of dwelling runs both, tied for the fifth fewest within the majors (they’ve hit 154 and allowed 148). It’s additionally potential that Brewers hitters can get sizzling and hit sufficient dwelling runs in October. Still, latest historical past says it is often an elite power-hitting crew that wins the World Series. Here are the previous eight winners with their seasonal rank in dwelling runs and distinction in dwelling runs hit and allowed:

2024: Dodgers (third, +35)
2023: Rangers (third, +35)
2022: Astros (fourth, +80)
2021: Braves (third, +56)
2020: Dodgers (first, +52 in simply 60 video games)
2019: Nationals (thirteenth, +29)
2018: Red Sox (ninth, +32)
2017: Astros (second, +46)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Real or not: The Dodgers’ bullpen points will forestall them from successful the World Series.

Let’s flip the clock again one year to what we wrote in regards to the Dodgers a yr in the past: “Pitching injuries will prevent the Dodgers from winning the World Series.” Our verdict: Real.

We have been incorrect … kind of. The Dodgers’ pitching wasn’t actually all that nice all through the postseason with a 4.50 ERA. Only the 2002 Angels gained the World Series with a better postseason ERA in the course of the wild-card period (since 1995). But the 2024 Dodgers have been capable of overcome an injury-riddled rotation with loads of offense and sufficient high quality aid work on the proper moments — particularly with that bullpen sport shutout in Game 4 of the NLDS to remain alive towards the Padres.

This yr, the priority is the other: The rotation is lastly getting wholesome on the proper time, however the bullpen is a large number because it has battled accidents all season and ranks nineteenth within the majors in ERA. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, two key free agent additions, have mixed to permit 17 dwelling runs with an ERA round 4.50. Scott has been the first nearer however has 9 blown saves. After giving up a walk-off dwelling run Friday, Scott mentioned, “Baseball hates me right now.”

It did not like him Saturday both, when he and Blake Treinen mixed to lose the sport after Yoshinobu Yamamoto was eliminated after dropping his no-hitter with two outs within the backside of the ninth.

Verdict: NOT REAL. Maybe we simply do not wish to be incorrect like final yr, but it surely’s additionally true that any bullpen can get sizzling for a month. The Rangers have been twenty fourth in bullpen ERA in 2023, the Atlanta Braves eleventh in 2021 and the Washington Nationals lifeless final in 2019, but all three groups gained all of it. The Dodgers nonetheless have a proficient group that’s fairly wholesome now with Treinen and Michael Kopech again from the accidents that had worn out a lot of their 2025 seasons, plus a bunch deep in left-handers that may give supervisor Dave Roberts most matchup choices. Don’t be stunned if this pen steps up after scuffling all season.

Real or not: Jhoan Duran is lastly the nearer the Phillies wanted.

Speaking of bullpens, that has definitely been a problem for the Phillies the previous two postseasons, when Craig Kimbrel misplaced two video games within the 2023 NLCS after which Jeff Hoffman misplaced two video games in final yr’s NLDS. The Phillies had hoped Jordan Romano would substitute Hoffman within the nearer position, however Romano struggled, so president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went large on the commerce deadline, dealing prime catching prospect Eduardo Tait to accumulate Minnesota Twins nearer Jhoan Duran.

In Duran, the Phillies have their greatest nearer since … nicely, 2008, when Brad Lidge had an ideal season in going 48-for-48 in saves and the crew final gained a World Series. Duran throws 100 mph with a nasty splitter, however his greatest attribute? He induces grounders and retains the ball within the park, having served up only one dwelling run all season.

Verdict: REAL. Duran does not assure something, in fact. Remember, Jose Alvarado is ineligible for the postseason after his earlier PED suspension, which is able to go away the pen a little bit skinny. Zack Wheeler is out for the season, so Cristopher Sanchez must reply as the brand new No. 1 starter within the playoffs. The offense is closely depending on Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper and has had some gamers, comparable to Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, wrestle within the postseason lately. But at the very least Phillies followers can really feel good if the crew will get a lead late within the sport.

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Real or not: The Tigers have an ace in Tarik Skubal, however their lack of a No. 2 starter is a giant drawback.

Who will begin the second sport of the playoffs for the Tigers? We’re in September, and that query stays unanswered. It’s most likely Jack Flaherty, who has a wonderful strikeout charge (171 in 146⅔ innings) but additionally has an ERA over 5.00 since late April, mixing good begins with dangerous ones (he has allowed 5 or extra runs seven instances). Casey Mize? Charlie Morton? A bullpen sport? Manager A.J. Hinch can solely hope a kind of guys will get sizzling these last weeks and makes his resolution a little bit simpler.

But how needed is it to have a robust No. 2 starter? Here are the pitchers who began the second playoff sport for the previous eight champions:

2024 Dodgers: Jack Flaherty (6-2, 3.58 ERA)
2023 Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (12-5. 3.63 ERA)
2022 Astros: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA)
2021 Braves: Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
2020 Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA)
2019 Nationals: Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA)*
2018 Red Sox: David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA)
2017 Astros: Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA)

(*Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg each pitched within the wild-card sport, so Corbin began Game 1 of the NLDS.)

All these pitchers had a decrease ERA than Detroit’s No. 2 choices. Several of them had large postseasons: Eovaldi went 5-0 in six begins; Valdez went 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA; Fried went 2-2, however the two wins have been scoreless outings, together with the World Series clincher; even Kershaw broke his postseason jinx in 2020 and went 4-1 in 5 begins.

Verdict: NOT REAL. Based on this checklist, it does seem that the Tigers might use a greater second man behind Skubal. On the opposite hand, over the previous 4 postseasons, starters have pitched solely 50% of all innings. You can kind of pretend your manner via the playoffs along with your rotation just like the Dodgers did final yr or the Braves did in 2021. If Skubal dominates and the bullpen can face up to quite a lot of innings, the Tigers can nonetheless pull off their first title since 1984.

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Real or not: The Blue Jays’ bullpen will likely be their downfall.

Yep, one other bullpen challenge to fret about. Manager John Schneider has caught with the aforementioned Jeff Hoffman — now a Blue Jay — as his nearer all season although Hoffman has a 4.77 ERA, 7 blown saves and 6 losses and is tied for the most important league lead in dwelling runs allowed by a reliever at 14. That definitely looks as if one thing that might hang-out the Blue Jays in October. Overall, their pen ranks sixteenth in ERA and ninth in win likelihood added.

Verdict: NOT REAL. It does not assist the arrogance of Blue Jays followers that Schneider has made some questionable bullpen strikes in earlier postseasons — towards Seattle within the 2022 wild-card collection and that odd very fast hook with Jose Berrios in 2023. But the Blue Jays have gone 0-6 within the playoffs since 2020 as a result of they have not hit — they slashed .230/.288/.330 with simply 4 dwelling runs within the six video games. Hoffman nonetheless has strikeout stuff and will get on a roll, however Toronto’s offense will decide its destiny.

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Real or not: Aaron Judge must hit — and hit large — within the postseason for the Yankees to make a run.

Judge has been criticized for his postseason manufacturing in his profession, hitting .205/.318/.450 with 16 dwelling runs and 34 RBIs in 58 video games. Fair sufficient, as that’s far beneath what he is finished within the common season. He was even worse within the 2022 and 2024 postseasons — when he had his two monster offensive common seasons — with a .165/.284/.365 mixed slash line. The Yankees did attain the World Series final yr, partially as a result of Judge was at the very least higher than he was in 2022, however he did not do a lot towards the Dodgers till he homered within the last sport. Of concern, in fact, is Judge’s shoulder damage; his numbers are down since he missed 10 days — albeit nonetheless good with an OPS near .900 — and though he lastly performed a sport in proper subject, he clearly cannot throw in any respect.

Verdict: REAL. Judge has most likely shouldered an excessive amount of of the blame for the Yankees’ postseason failures since his arrival in 2017, though he wasn’t the one who known as on a rusty Nestor Cortes to face Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of final yr’s World Series. It’s value noting that the Yankees lead the majors in dwelling runs by an enormous margin — 33 greater than the Mariners, and each participant of their beginning lineup Sunday has hit at the very least 19. Still, the Yankees are at their greatest when Judge is at his greatest. They want Judge to do what Corey Seager did for the Rangers in 2023 or what Freeman did for the Dodgers in 2024.

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Real or not: The Cubs’ lineup depth is ideal for the postseason.

The Yankees rely closely on Judge, however the Cubs arguably have an above-average hitter in any respect 9 lineup spots. Matt Shaw is the one common with a weighted runs created (wRC+) beneath league common, however the rookie third baseman has been glorious for the reason that All-Star break, hitting .275/.329/.573 with 9 dwelling runs. His breakout has been counterbalanced by the slumps of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki, however the Cubs nonetheless have one of many higher offenses within the majors on the season.

Of notice, listed below are latest World Series winners who’ve had lineup depth:

2024 Dodgers: Seven regulars with an above-average wRC+ (and two just under with a 98 wRC+)

2023 Rangers: 11 regulars above common (together with September call-up Evan Carter)

2022 Astros: Seven regulars above common (two weak spots in Yuli Gurriel and Martin Maldonado, however Gurriel had a very good postseason)

2021 Braves: Seven regulars above common and one just under at a 99 wRC+ (of the 9 postseason regulars, solely catcher Travis d’Arnaud was nicely beneath common within the common season)

You get the thought. The final World Series champ with what may be labeled an imbalanced offense was the 2018 Red Sox, who relied closely on famous person seasons from Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez (and acquired a sizzling October from Steve Pearce).

Verdict: REAL. The Cubs’ offense was horrible in August, so it is potential it peaked too early, particularly if PCA cannot get away of this stoop. But that is additionally the form of lineup that has gained the World Series, one that’s strong from 1 via 9 and does not give the opposing pitching workers any simple spots. It makes the Cubs severe contenders, though their seemingly second-place division end renders the duty a little bit more durable as a result of they will must get via the wild-card collection.

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THE POTENTIAL SPOILERS

Real or not: Without Roman Anthony, you may kiss a World Series title goodbye.

The rookie phenom simply went down with a strained indirect and will miss 4 to 6 weeks, which implies he may be out for at the very least the beginning of the postseason. With Anthony within the beginning lineup, the Red Sox are 40-26, however when he hasn’t began they’re below .500. Anthony had not solely been the spark on the prime of the lineup with a .396 OBP however was beginning to faucet into his energy in August, hitting .317/.400/.561 with six dwelling runs in 21 video games earlier than the damage. Now, the Red Sox is not going to solely have to carry on to a playoff spot with out him, however they may most likely must win at the very least a postseason collection or two with out him.

Verdict: NOT REAL. It’s an enormous blow, particularly given his sizzling bat of late, however the report with Anthony within the lineup coincides with higher performances up and down the roster for the reason that starting of July — particularly from the work of Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello within the rotation to assist again up ace Garrett Crochet.

The Red Sox even have the very best nearer within the sport in 2025 in Aroldis Chapman, who has a ridiculous .346 OPS allowed and 0.98 ERA; a red-hot setup reliever in Garrett Whitlock (a 1.47 ERA and no dwelling runs since mid-May); and sufficient depth to fill in for Anthony, particularly if they will get Wilyer Abreu again earlier than the top of the common season. It will not be simple with out Anthony, but it surely may very well be an analogous state of affairs to the Braves dropping Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2021 and nonetheless successful the World Series.

Real or not: The Mets must depend on rookie starters Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong — and it would work.

The Mets’ rotation was excellent early within the season (2.24 ERA in April). Then it was mediocre. Then, in August, it was the 1962 Mets with a 5.41 ERA. Kodai Senga, after going winless in his previous 9 begins since coming off the injured checklist, was just lately despatched all the way down to Triple-A. The rotation is now closely depending on McLean and Tong.

McLean is 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his first 4 profession begins, showcasing a deep arsenal of pitches and inducing a excessive charge of floor balls with only one dwelling run in 26⅓ innings. Tong, the minor league chief in ERA and strikeouts, has made two main league begins, successful his debut earlier than giving up three dwelling runs in a loss to the Reds on Saturday (the one three hits he allowed). The Mets then turned to a 3rd rookie starter in Brandon Sproat, who made his debut Sunday.

Can this work? Right now, a Mets playoff rotation may go David Peterson, Clay Holmes, McLean and Tong, until Sean Manaea figures issues out or Senga will get again on observe. In the wild-card period, 15 rookie pitchers have began a postseason sport for the eventual World Series champs. But two of these have been veterans from Japan, one was a 32-year-old Orlando Hernandez in 1998, two have been openers for the Braves in 2021, one was opener Ben Casparius final yr for the Dodgers, and two have been quick-hook starters for the Dodgers in 2020 (Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin).

That leaves seven conventional rookies since 1995 who began for a World Series winner: Ian Anderson, 2021 Braves (4 postseason begins); Madison Bumgarner, 2010 Giants (three begins); Anthony Reyes, 2006 Cardinals (two begins); Dontrelle Willis, 2003 Marlins (two begins); John Lackey, 2002 Angels (three begins); and Livan Hernandez and Tony Saunders, 1997 Marlins (mixed 5 begins).

So, there you go, a crew has gained the World Series with two rookie starters earlier than: the 1997 Marlins, though Hernandez had 17 profession begins earlier than the postseason and Saunders had 21 (and all of the others above had at the very least 18 begins). No World Series winner within the expanded playoff period has used a rookie starter as inexperienced as McLean and Tong will likely be in October.

Verdict: REAL. OK, so historical past says a Mets title is unlikely to occur — and that is earlier than even factoring in their very own tortured playoff historical past since successful in 1986. But these two rookie starters are extremely proficient, and the Mets have an offense that may rating quite a lot of runs when it is clicking and an elite nearer in Edwin Diaz. The key won’t be McLean and Tong, however whether or not the veteran starters have something left within the tank — Peterson and Holmes have already far exceeded their season highs in innings — and whether or not Ryan Helsley can discover his groove to assist arrange Diaz.

Real or not: Like the Brewers, the Padres do not hit sufficient dwelling runs to win all of it.

Indeed, San Diego’s lack of energy is much more pronounced: Only the Pirates have hit fewer dwelling runs than the Padres’ meager whole of 127. Ah, however the Padres play in a tricky park to hit dwelling runs. Except they’re nonetheless subsequent to final in dwelling runs hit on the highway. They did add some energy on the commerce deadline, nonetheless, buying Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn, they usually did produce their greatest offensive month of the season in August.

Verdict: REAL. If we will hammer the Brewers, it appears honest to knock the Padres as nicely, provided that Milwaukee has scored much more runs than San Diego. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are large names however have mixed for simply 43 dwelling runs. And dare we remind you what occurred towards the Dodgers in final yr’s NLDS, when the Padres have been shut out within the last two video games.

The Padres’ offense is best than it was earlier than the deadline, and they’ll attempt to journey their bullpen to a championship — though dropping Jason Adam is a giant blow — however I’m skeptical they will produce sufficient offense over three or 4 rounds of the postseason until Machado and Tatis rise to the event.

Real or not: Yordan Alvarez ‘s return provides the Astros sufficient offense.

Alvarez is not the one blast from the previous to just lately return to the roster. The Astros have struggled all season to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, however Cristian Javier has made 5 begins since his return from Tommy John surgical procedure, and Luis Garcia simply made his second on Sunday. It’s too early to know what degree of effectiveness they will attain, however each have began video games within the World Series previously (Javier began that mixed no-hitter sport towards the Phillies in 2022).

It’s Alvarez who ought to make the most important impression after lacking a lot of the season. The Astros are twenty second within the majors in runs and tied for seventeenth in dwelling runs. Alvarez modifications that dynamic, and he has performed some left subject since his return, permitting supervisor Joe Espada to maintain Jose Altuve in a DH position. Christian Walker has discovered himself after a horrible first three months as nicely. It’s not an awesome offense even with Alvarez, but it surely may be ok.

Verdict: REAL. The Astros might want to get Josh Hader again from his shoulder damage — his postseason continues to be up within the air — however in a wide-open American League, the Astros have the required components: two ace-level starters, the most effective hitters within the sport in Alvarez (who has produced within the postseason with a .944 OPS) and a doubtlessly deadly bullpen. The Astros should not be right here after dropping Alex Bregman and buying and selling Kyle Tucker this previous offseason, however right here they’re.

Real or not: You cannot win the World Series if you cannot win on the highway.

Everyone liked the Mariners after they acquired Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor on the commerce deadline, however the crew hasn’t taken off like many anticipated — principally as a result of it has been completely depressing on the highway of late. After beating the Braves on Sunday to win the collection, the Mariners snapped a skid of six straight dropping collection on the highway (and 0-6-1 of their earlier seven). Their highway report is now 34-41, and the rotation ERA on the highway is just below 5.00.

But can they nonetheless win the World Series? Road information for latest World Series winners:

2024 Dodgers: 46-35
2023 Rangers: 40-41
2022 Astros: 51-30
2021 Braves: 46-35
2019 Nationals: 43-38
2018 Red Sox: 51-30
2017 Astros: 53-38

Put it this fashion: The 2023 Rangers are the one World Series winner for the reason that 2006 Cardinals with a dropping report on the highway, they usually have been only a sport below.

Verdict: REAL. Unless the Mariners mount a livid rally to overhaul the Astros and win the AL West, they may also seemingly must play the wild-card collection on the highway (assuming they even win a spot). Given how poorly they’ve performed away from dwelling, the primary journey to the World Series in franchise historical past appears uncertain.

Real or not: With Nathan Eovaldi out for the yr, the Rangers haven’t any probability.

Eovaldi is not the one injured Ranger: Marcus Semien will miss at the very least the remainder of the common season with a damaged foot, Corey Seager is out following an appendectomy (he hopes to return earlier than the top of the season), Evan Carter is out for the season with a fractured wrist and even Adolis Garcia simply landed on the IL with a quad pressure. But Eovaldi had been the most effective starters within the majors with an 11-3 report and 1.73 ERA, plus he was the hero of the 2023 World Series run when he went 5-0 in six begins.

Can you win with out your ace? Well, it has occurred earlier than, together with with the Rangers in 2023 after they have been with out Jacob deGrom. The Cardinals gained in 2011 although Adam Wainwright, coming off a second-place end within the Cy Young voting, missed the complete season. Heck, the Dodgers gained final yr with Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw unable to pitch.

Verdict: NOT REAL. This is beginning to appear like a Bruce Bochy particular, is not it? The Rangers sneak in, Bochy figures out his bullpen simply on the proper time, deGrom and Merrill Kelly win their begins, and Seager returns to earn one more World Series MVP Award. Never overlook a Bochy-managed crew within the postseason. The Rangers simply must get in.

Real or not: Bobby Witt Jr. does not have sufficient assist on this lineup.

Two months in the past, that seemed just like the case. But since July 1, solely the Brewers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have higher information than the Royals — and the lineup abruptly appears respectable. The Royals are eighth within the majors in dwelling runs and thirteenth in runs scored for the reason that starting of July — and have been even higher in August after including a number of gamers on the commerce deadline. Here are some Royal batting strains since July 1:

Witt: .308/.376/.526, 10 HRs
Vinnie Pasquantino: .255/.318/.555, 17 HRs
Salvador Perez: .249/.292/.535, 16 HRs
Maikel Garcia: .272/.347/.461, 8 HRs
Mike Yastrzemski: .233/.322/.524, 7 HRs

Verdict: NOT REAL. Given that their dwelling park is without doubt one of the hardest for dwelling runs within the majors, this now appears like an offense with sufficient energy to make a postseason run. Though Kris Bubic is out for the season, Cole Ragans made a rehab begin in Triple-A on Sunday. If he makes it again to bolster the rotation, the Royals appear like a crew that might shock in October.