Judging greatest overreactions for NFL Week 1 video games

It has been mentioned by some — effectively, by me, a minimum of — that Week 1 is the Super Bowl for the Overreactions column.

Last yr in Week 1, the Patriots beat the Bengals … then did not win once more till Week 8. The Saints scored 47 factors and 44 extra in Week 2 … then did not win once more till Week 10. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, misplaced 37-20 to the Buccaneers … then reached the NFC Championship Game.

So go forward and fake that the whole lot within the NFL is discovered. Assume the Chiefs are performed, that the Eagles cannot cowl anyone, that the Giants will not rating a landing all season and that the Falcons proceed to be cursed. It’s Week 1 of an 18-week schedule. You’re virtually definitely overreacting.

But that is what we do right here — kind by the weekly overreactions to determine which of them would possibly maintain up and which of them are mirages. Week 1 is hard as a result of now we have so little proof, however that is additionally what makes it a lot enjoyable.

Jump to:
Chiefs’ AFC West run is over?
Dolphins drafting No. 1?
Dart to be Giants’ QB1 quickly?
Steelers’ offense is playoff-ready?
Packers class of NFC?

The Kansas City Chiefs will not win the AFC West this season

Friday evening’s opener in Brazil did not go effectively for the nine-time defending division champions. The Chiefs misplaced 27-21 to the rival Chargers. The offense, after dropping speedy wideout Xavier Worthy due to a dislocated shoulder on the third play, seemed out of sync and nonexplosive. The protection could not gradual Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was operating for his life quite a bit like he did final season. A Kansas City staff that we anticipated to come back out offended about being embarrassed within the Super Bowl did not look a lot totally different than in mentioned Super Bowl.

Worthy may need to overlook time, and prime receiver Rashee Rice is suspended for 5 extra video games. To prime it off, the AFC West-rival Chargers seemed improbable and now have a sport in hand on the Chiefs in what may very well be an intense three-way race between these two groups and a scary-looking Broncos squad. Not the best way Kansas City needs to start out its season.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Obviously. This continues to be the Andy Reid/Mahomes Chiefs. They seemed awful offensively all final season and nonetheless went 15-2 and bought to a 3rd straight Super Bowl. Should issues be harder this season? Absolutely. And 15-2 would not really feel overly repeatable, particularly when the primary sport is a loss. But no staff over the previous decade has extra persistently addressed and solved its issues in the course of the season.

The Chiefs are extraordinarily enthusiastic about rookie left deal with Josh Simmons, and he ought to enhance. Rice will likely be again after Week 6, and Worthy ought to return in some unspecified time in the future. Mahomes nonetheless delivered a number of patented magical moments, and the Chiefs get three further days to relaxation and put together for his or her Week 2 sport towards … checks notes … oh, the Eagles. Perhaps we should always revisit this subsequent week.

The Miami Dolphins will likely be choosing first within the 2026 draft … and in search of a QB

I went out on a limb this preseason, considering that the Dolphins won’t be as unhealthy as many thought. Maybe that impulse will ultimately be proper. After all, Sunday’s 33-8 loss to the Daniel Jones-led Colts was just one sport, and it may find yourself being Miami’s worst sport of the season. But hoo boy, this was ugly.

It was 30-0 earlier than Miami lastly scored with beneath seven minutes remaining within the sport. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a depressing 14-for-23 for 114 yards, with 2 interceptions and a misplaced fumble. The protection, which has been hit onerous by damage on the again finish and misplaced cornerback Storm Duck due to damage in the course of the sport, gave Jones nearly the whole lot he needed. The former Giants’ first-round choose was 22-for-29 for 272 yards and a landing cross, and he ran for 2 extra scores. It was a nightmare opener for a Dolphins staff that needed to show the web page on a disappointing 8-9 season in 2024.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Again, I did not enter the season anticipating Miami to be one of many NFL’s worst groups. But lots of people did, and I’ve definitely been incorrect earlier than. It’s doable the protection by no means will get absolutely wholesome and appears this susceptible all season. It’s doable Tagovailoa retains struggling, although he has typically performed effectively beneath Mike McDaniel when wholesome. This program would possibly by no means rediscover the promise it confirmed in 2022 and 2023, when the Dolphins made the playoffs in McDaniel’s first two seasons.

It’s essential to notice that Tagovailoa has $54 million in absolutely assured cash in 2026 and can virtually definitely nonetheless be the Dolphins’ starter a minimum of by that season (if wholesome). But if this season bottoms out and the Dolphins are choosing at or close to the highest of what is regarded as a QB-rich draft, it isn’t an enormous leap to count on them to consider the long run at that place.

It was just one sport, but it surely was ugly in all of the methods Miami’s doubters feared it might be. And when that occurs, even in Week 1, some alarm bells are justified.

Jaxson Dart would be the New York Giants’ beginning quarterback by the top of September

You need to speak about wanting ugly? I watched the Giants lose 21-6 to the Commanders in particular person Sunday, and this offense does not look aggressive with Russell Wilson operating it. Wilson was pressured on 16 of his 45 dropbacks (36%) and dealt with that stress fairly poorly. He was 2-of-12 for 26 yards and was sacked twice when pressured.

He wasn’t significantly better when he had time to throw, ending 17-for-37 for 168 yards. He ran for 44 yards on eight carries, primarily scrambles to get away from mentioned stress. The Giants moved the ball at instances and bought into some goal-to-go conditions however couldn’t rating a landing. New York had 231 whole yards, averaged 4 yards per cross try and three.2 yards per rush. The smartest thing you possibly can say in regards to the Giants’ offense Sunday is that the unit did not flip the ball over. Yet, the Giants nonetheless misplaced by 15.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Giants coach Brian Daboll would not need to be pressured into beginning Dart, his first-round rookie quarterback, earlier than he is prepared. Daboll would not need Dart to really feel that stress, both. But when requested after the sport whether or not Wilson would begin subsequent week in Dallas, Daboll wasn’t definitive.

What we all know is that the Giants made Dart their No. 2 quarterback Sunday, which suggests they trusted him to enter the sport and run their offense if one thing had occurred to Wilson. We additionally know they’ve labored with Dart on some particular packages (however these had been carried out Sunday) that will make the most of his operating capacity. Dart seemed improbable within the preseason, and although the common season is a distinct story and the Giants have a frightening early schedule, his athleticism would doubtlessly add some juice that Wilson would not provide at this level in his profession.

Dart will begin ultimately. Daboll and the Giants’ coaches have been methodical about their improvement plan for him and don’t need to speed up it as a result of the offense is struggling. But Dart may be the higher choice now. And maybe he may deal with the accountability.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lastly have an offense that may assist them advance previous the wild-card spherical of the playoffs

Aaron Rodgers’ Steelers debut was a thriller. Rodgers rolled into MetLife Stadium to play the Jets, who launched him this spring after two very disappointing seasons. He threw 4 landing passes, and the Steelers stole a victory after Chris Boswell nailed a 60-yard subject objective late of their 34-32 win.

In a sport between groups we thought would need to gradual issues down and lean on their run video games, Rodgers and his New York alternative, Justin Fields, delivered a breathless shootout. The Jets appeared to have issues beneath management, main 26-17 within the fourth quarter, however a fumbled kickoff after a Pittsburgh landing arrange Rodgers to place the Steelers forward with 14:07 left. Even after Fields led the Jets on a go-ahead landing drive, Pittsburgh nonetheless bought into place for Boswell to win it with a monster kick.

The Steelers scored greater than 34 factors twice final season with Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback. So, Sunday’s efficiency certainly has Steelers followers dreaming large about an offense that hasn’t scored on this method since Ben Roethlisberger was quarterback.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

I imply … actually? Yes, 34 factors is nice. But this was a lengthy method from a playoff sport, and the Steelers took benefit of some severe items. The Jets outgained them 394 yards to 271, dedicated seven penalties and produced the sport’s solely turnover at a pivotal time. And the Steelers nonetheless wanted a 60-yard subject objective to win. Play that sport in Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City in January, and also you ain’t profitable it.

Be inspired that this Steelers offense may be extra persistently productive and thrilling than in 2024, however do not be offered. And do not gloss over the truth that the protection, which is meant to be the fixed in Pittsburgh, could not cease Fields and the Jets.

Rodgers hasn’t received a playoff sport because the 2020 season, and he’ll be 42 when this yr’s playoffs begin. Great sport, nice begin, however it’s going to take much more for me to be satisfied that the Steelers can reverse their current pattern of playoff fizzle-outs.

You would possibly argue for the Colts or Chargers, however no staff seemed higher by the Sunday afternoon video games to me than the Packers, who swallowed up the Lions on each side of the ball and made a powerful early assertion with a 27-13 victory. Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is in his second season with the staff, and Year 2 in a brand new scheme typically will produce a giant enchancment.

Holding the defending division champion Lions to a late landing and 246 whole yards is not any joke. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love was environment friendly, three Packers gamers scored touchdowns and Micah Parsons was clearly an element regardless of enjoying restricted snaps. The Lions needs to be superb, however the Packers wanted this one they usually bought it with authority.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Packers had been my preseason choose to signify the NFC within the Super Bowl, and nothing I noticed Sunday makes me waver. Last season (together with playoffs), Green Bay went 0-6 in video games towards the Lions, Vikings and Eagles — the NFC’s prime three groups within the common season — and 11-1 towards everybody else.

The 2024 Packers had been on the sting of greatness, however could not beat the convention’s greatest groups. They had the youngest roster within the league final season and do once more this yr, however they’re deep and proficient with extremely expert playcallers on each side of the ball. And a Week 1 victory over the Lions — notably a dominant one like Sunday — is what the Packers wanted to get their season off to a confidence-fueled begin.