College soccer Week 3 — Panic ranges for Florida, Clemson, Notre Dame

Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry video games and a great deal of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we try to separate the distinction. This week provides us high-stakes helmet video games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry video games each bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, generally, foolish (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it provides us PANIC.

Notre Dame is 0-1 and will not have a ton of high quality win alternatives to beat a possible 0-2 begin. Clemson and Georgia have not seemed the half but and could possibly be severely punished if they do not shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a mixed 2-3 and may’t wait for much longer to show into the groups they had been purported to be. And each Florida and Virginia Tech performed their coaches onto extremely sizzling seats with jarring second-half collapses final week. So many fan bases are both fuming or about to be.

The first two weeks had been enjoyable in several methods. Now it is time to get anxious. Here’s the whole lot it’s good to observe in Week 3.

All instances are Eastern, and all video games are Saturday except in any other case famous.

Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart

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More:
Week 3 playlist | Small college showcase

Hot seat panic

Between Nov. 16 and final Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, permitting simply 10.4 factors per sport and, presumably, enjoying head coach Billy Napier off of the recent seat.

Then the Gators misplaced to USF. They settled for discipline objectives early and gave up simply sufficient massive performs (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It occurred the way in which a whole lot of upsets occur, and USF may develop into an superior staff. But Florida now faces an absurd run that includes journeys to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a go to from No. 7 Texas, within the subsequent month. Napier went from moderately secure to all however accomplished in a heartbeat.

He’s not alone, a minimum of. Starting the season towards South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech acquired outscored by a mixed 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they’ve a rebound alternative with house video games towards Old Dominion and Wofford, however ODU has been awfully attention-grabbing to start out the season.

First issues first: If LSU had performed USF as a substitute of Louisiana Tech final week, the Tigers might have been in hassle too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging simply 4.9 yards per play, and with the run sport struggling (because it did for a lot of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky choices, taking three sacks with a decide and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds nicely to an indignant week in Gainesville, do not be shocked if we get an upset.

Until we see Florida’s response, nonetheless, nothing else issues. Quarterback DJ Lagway remains to be kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging simply 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run protection might very nicely dominate, nevertheless it’s the go protection that issues towards LSU, and the Gators rank simply 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After video games towards Long Island and USF, that is fairly foreboding, irrespective of how iffy Nussmeier seemed final week.

Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0

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I do not fake to be a physique language knowledgeable, however when Vanderbilt scored to start out the second half towards Virginia Tech final week, the Hokies’ offense had simply in regards to the worst physique language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the sphere. It was dangerous sufficient that I truly seen it and made a psychological observe, and it occurred about proper right here on the sport’s win likelihood chart.

The Hokies offense did not rating one other level, and the Hokies protection did not make one other cease. Tech will in all probability get again on monitor this week, however Old Dominion landed some stable punches early towards Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved towards SP+ projections by a mixed 46.4 factors in its first two video games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making massive performs together with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, issues might get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.

Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8

‘It’s time to appear to be you had been purported to look’ panic

Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has solely misplaced to the No. 3 staff within the nation. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State final week however might clearly nonetheless win the Big 12. All 4 of those groups had been within the preseason high 15, and three nonetheless are. If they begin trying just like the groups they had been purported to be, they’re going to all have good seasons with stable playoff possibilities.

If they do not flip it on this week, nonetheless, issues will get very difficult. They’ve mixed to underachieve towards SP+ projections by a mean of 10.4 factors per sport. Georgia has barely made any massive performs, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in factors per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been in a position to throw or defend the go. On Saturday, all 4 groups play opponents that would completely beat them if they do not discover their respective A-games.

Georgia sleepwalked by way of a 28-6 win over Austin Peay final week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had extra turnovers (two) than 20-yard positive factors (one), and whereas APSU appears to be like like an awfully robust FCS staff, this was nonetheless one in every of Georgia’s most flawed performances in fairly some time.

Does that matter? Georgia mainly treats the season like an NFL common season, figuring out it is proficient sufficient to keep away from any actual missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the change and roll over Tennessee, it will not shock a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve gained eight straight within the collection, in any case, and have gained of their previous 4 journeys to Knoxville by a mean of 41-10. But it is exhausting to have a lot confidence in a Georgia offense that confirmed subsequent to no explosiveness towards Marshall and APSU.

And it isn’t as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes a minimum of 20 yards downfield, however he has accomplished only one. Granted, he has accomplished 76% of all his different passes, and Georgia has been fairly environment friendly. But the big-play spigot must open fairly shortly.

New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen loads of massive performs to this point, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, 5 TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a robust run sport, nonetheless, and he won’t be capable to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed simply 2.2 yards per carry (not together with sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee might discover itself delayed fairly regularly, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his greatest take a look at of the season by far.

Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3

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We’re working with tiny samples, however the distinction between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback manufacturing has been dramatic: The high 5 QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are at present thirty fifth (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.

For youthful gamers like Manning and Sellers, a gradual begin may make sense. But Klubnik was purported to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to learn from everybody else’s inexperience. With unproven working backs and an already banged up O-line, nonetheless, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.

After video games towards probably the greatest (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down throughout the board. He’s getting blitzed continuously, he is offering no risk together with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success price has plummeted from thirty seventh to a hundred and fifth. Either that modifications now, or Clemson’s 2025 objectives begin to collapse. A loss Saturday would nearly clinch that the Tigers must win out to achieve the College Football Playoff.

Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a protection that has overachieved twice towards SP+ projections and an offense that was practically excellent final week towards Gardner-Webb regardless of forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King ought to be good (sufficient) to go Saturday, and although the Clemson protection might disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets nonetheless may rating sufficient to win if Clemson’s offense does not begin trying prefer it was purported to look.

Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3

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First issues first: If Vicari Swain needs to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m sport.

Swain has scored on three of 5 punt returns in 2025, and it has created an odd stability: Including a fumble return rating, South Carolina’s protection and particular groups have scored as many touchdowns (4) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success price, and LaNorris Sellers is taking much more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with much less deep-ball payoff.

Vanderbilt has, with out query, been the higher of those two groups so far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (in comparison with South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a impartial discipline), and so they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored extra TDs within the second half towards Virginia Tech (5) than the Gamecock offense has managed in 4 halves.

We do not draw everlasting conclusions after two video games, however both South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks start a really humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in 4 of their subsequent six video games. Lose this one as a favourite, and you’ll in all probability kiss playoff hopes goodbye.

Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0

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Last yr, Arizona State survived a lot of early shut calls, then seemed spectacular late. But the god of shut video games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville final week.

They might clearly nonetheless attain the CFP by successful the Big 12, however with video games towards Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they have to begin trying the half, and on Saturday evening, they face an explosive Texas State staff that almost took them down final yr. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.

ASU ought to run the ball nicely towards a shaky Texas State defensive entrance, however Sam Leavitt — at present 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion price, three INTs and 4 sacks — has someway grow to be much more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks eighty fifth in yards allowed per dropback. ASU practically overcame a horrible begin in Starkville, but when TXST’s offense will get rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it would by no means decelerate.

Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3

‘Probably do not need to lose you probably have CFP hopes’ panic

We cannot name many Week 3 video games true must-wins within the CFP period, however Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2 and at risk of going 0-2 in convention play. If these three video games aren’t must-win, they’re made from a reasonably must-win-like substance.

Notre Dame gave us a reasonably conflicting impression in Week 1’s slender loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was first rate however unspectacular in his debut begin, whereas the protection restricted Miami’s big-play potential however allowed a 49% success price, which suggests it at present ranks 126th in that class. The offensive and defensive traces carried out worse than anticipated, and the run sport was first underwhelming after which forgotten.

The Irish had every week off to arrange for a robust Texas A&M staff that has underachieved a hair due to defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his model of practically mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and working backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The protection has knocked opponents off-schedule nicely, nevertheless it has certainly been hit by eight positive factors of 20-plus yards.

The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something towards each UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame is not a lot of a “track meets” form of staff, and Carr threw nearly all of his passes near the road of scrimmage towards Miami. But he related on each of his lengthy passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and take a look at A&M’s glitchiness?

It’s simple to see this sport changing into one in every of trench warfare, although random chunk performs might inform the story. One method or one other, the Irish actually do want a win right here. Even in the event that they had been to lose after which win out to complete 10-2 — not a given contemplating how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have seemed so far — their résumé may characteristic just one or two wins over ranked groups, and so they might discover themselves on the backside of a pile of 10-2 groups. That’s actually not the place you need to be.

Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6

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In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game shedding streak, then gained its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a gradual begin, however Okay-State has already nearly run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (much less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.

The run sport has been dreadful with out injured star Dylan Edwards — he’s cleared to play Friday — and whereas quarterback Avery Johnson has been first rate, solely opponents are making massive performs: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).

Arizona, however, has been spectacular, overachieving towards SP+ projections by a mixed 34.0 factors and enjoying like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing marketing campaign by no means occurred. Noah Fifita is averaging practically 18 yards per completion, and the protection has picked off 5 passes whereas permitting simply two completions over 12 yards.

Once once more: We do not draw conclusions after two weeks, however Arizona has carried out infinitely higher than Okay-State to this point. If that continues Friday evening, Okay-State shifts to only attempting to go 6-6 and Arizona publicizes itself as a Big 12 contender.

Current line: Okay-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6

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Is it a stretch to place Alabama on this part when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wished to focus on that the Crimson Tide have been perhaps the single-most risky staff within the nation by way of two weeks, first underachieving towards SP+ projections by 28.3 factors in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then successful practically each play and overachieving by 41.4 factors in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.

Wisconsin won’t be superb this yr, however the Badgers are nearer to FSU than ULM, a minimum of on protection. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two video games — sure, towards Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, however nonetheless — and so they’ve created severe havoc, rating fourth in sack price and fifteenth in stuff price. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been environment friendly filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., however the Wisconsin offense in all probability will not threaten Bama a lot. The protection will power the Tide to place in a shift, nonetheless, and show that final week’s efficiency was far nearer to what we should always anticipate from Bama transferring ahead.

Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7

‘This rivalry is filled with devastating losses’ panic

The Backyard Brawl is fairly in-your-face about how superior and wild it’s. I imply, “Brawl” is correct there within the title. It’s loud and brash sufficient that you’ve got nearly no selection however to suppose, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about as soon as per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has introduced a wave of sentimentality … and reminiscences of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the devastating rivalry upsets of all time.

(No, however critically, inform me once more why we’re not enjoying this sport yearly?)

Arkansas-Ole Miss, in the meantime, does not actually also have a identify and wasn’t performed yearly till the Nineteen Eighties. You can in all probability discover loads of Razorbacks and Rebels followers who do not even take into account this a real rivalry. Fine. But previously 14 years alone, this sport has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many video games I stay up for extra, and I can name it no matter I need.

WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the following lack of working again Jahiem White to season-ending damage — might need lowered the stakes right here, however Milan Puskar Stadium can be buzzing all the identical. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a mixed 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run protection. The WVU protection has been higher than I anticipated, although, and it’ll take solely a few turnovers to flip this one within the house staff’s favor.

Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2

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Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a little bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky final week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary appears to be like nice, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all however one remaining sport. We could possibly be watching a playoff plan come collectively, however a trio of house video games towards Arkansas, Tulane and LSU within the subsequent three weeks might present any variety of plot twists.

Arkansas is as much as twenty first in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging practically 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks had been within the high 30 final September, too, earlier than issues went off the rails. If they’ve endurance this time, they may ship us one other very foolish Rebs-Hogs sport.

Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6

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‘Don’t need the in-state upstart to wreck our nice begin’ panic

If you do not knock USF out early, you’ll pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on 4 of its first six possessions however turned the ball over twice, scored as soon as and ultimately acquired accomplished in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break protection early however settled for 3 discipline objectives, then threw an interception in its subsequent journey throughout the 50. Given sufficient alternatives, USF hit on a few chunk performs and stole an 18-16 win.

USF is permitting opponents to win the effectivity battle this yr however is stopping massive performs and ultimately making a lot of its personal. This formulation has prompted a pair of ranked wins.

Miami’s offense is splendidly environment friendly. Through two video games, together with one towards Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are fifteenth in dashing success price and ninth in passing success price. Carson Beck’s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are holding them on schedule superbly, and so they have a No. 5 rating to point out for it. They have not made a ton of massive performs, although, and the protection has given up positive factors of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (seventieth nationally). Surely the USF formulation is not going to work once more, proper?

Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0

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Week 3 chaos superfecta

We are unstoppable! We’re as soon as once more utilizing this house to try to will chaos into existence, taking a look at 4 rigorously curated video games with fairly massive level spreads and mashing them collectively into a way more upset-friendly quantity, and due to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.

What’s higher than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down one other ranked staff. SP+ says there’s solely a 48% probability that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.

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Week 3 playlist

Here are some extra, much less panicky video games you need to take note of if you wish to get probably the most out of the weekend, from each info and leisure views.

Friday night

Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed 9 complete factors and three.0 yards per play in two video games, and Colorado is evidently attempting to determine which of three completely different quarterbacks is the way in which ahead. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in solely two extra video games this season, so now can be an excellent time to kick into gear.

Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9

Early Saturday

No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (midday, Fox). Northwestern has defended the go nicely this yr, however (A) Oregon’s passing sport is an improve over these of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t actually accomplished something else nicely. Oregon has accomplished the whole lot nicely so far. This one will want some severe upset magic to be attention-grabbing within the second half. (But hey, a minimum of Northwestern’s wonderful and non permanent Lake Michigan stadium will get loads of display screen time.)

Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1

No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (midday, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in a single sport) TCU have overachieved towards SP+ projections greater than Temple so far; coach Okay.C. Keeler is making an instantaneous affect in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is definitely second nationally in Total QBR. It’s in all probability a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, nonetheless.

Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3

Memphis at Troy (midday, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 staff in SP+, but when Tae Meadows and the Troy run sport get rolling, the Trojans and what ought to be a reasonably spicy house crowd might make this one powerful. (See: Tulane’s slender escape towards South Alabama final week.)

Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9

Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas final week, however seven of the Tigers’ final 10 video games are projected inside one rating. This is not one in every of them, however Louisiana ought to be capable to take a look at Mizzou on the road of scrimmage, a minimum of, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week earlier than South Carolina involves city.

Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5

Saturday afternoon

USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a pleasant offensive rhythm, albeit towards cakey competitors. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its closing 10 video games are towards groups ranked thirty third or higher in SP+, together with 5 ranked 18th or higher (together with USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a shock?

Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9

Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in final week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech staff that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We do not know what the Red Raiders do unsuitable but as a result of they’ve accomplished nearly nothing unsuitable. What can OSU do to gradual them down?

Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3

No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of high quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, however the Cyclones have not actually gotten their run sport going but. Now’s the possibility. ASU’s passing sport has some pop, however the protection … does not. Now’s an opportunity to determine a rhythm and take some strain off Rocco Becht.

Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2

FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU actually manhandled Florida A&M final week and is working Zach Kittley’s offense on the nation’s quickest tempo, however Willie Simmons’ first FIU staff has overachieved towards projections in every of its first two video games. Can the Golden Panthers finish a seven-game rivalry shedding streak?

Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7

Saturday night

Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is one other massive early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and bodily. The blitz-happy Bobcats protection will attempt to throw some haymakers too. They in all probability will not land many, however they may take a look at Julian Sayin and a few of Ohio State’s much less skilled gamers.

Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6

No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve mentioned it earlier than, and I’ll say it once more: When I’m accountable for all faculty soccer scheduling, I’m sending a ranked energy convention staff to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium yearly. It is usually a cauldron. Utah ought to prevail in its first journey up there in 15 years, however the Cowboys will hit exhausting and make their transformed offense work more durable than they’ve needed to to this point.

Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1

Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new staff hits the street to face his previous staff, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away a possibility to beat Illinois final week, they’re going to must rebound shortly to keep away from falling to 1-2. Tulane has already overwhelmed one energy convention staff (OK, it was Northwestern, however nonetheless). It appears to be like the a part of a big-time squad.

Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1

Late Saturday

Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early checks as Cal’s true freshman QB, finishing 69% of his passes and taking nearly no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after video games towards Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates stable strain with out having to blitz a lot. The diploma of issue ramps up significantly now.

Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s as soon as once more save a shoutout for the fantastic decrease ranges of the game. Here are three video games you need to monitor.

Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After beginning the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton staff, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders rating sufficient towards a Grove City protection that pressured seven turnovers towards 2023 nationwide champ Cortland final week?

SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8

Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you possibly can’t query UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. Every week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield staff, the Titans return to the Midwest to tackle Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would instantly be a aggressive FCS program, however this can be a difficult season debut for the champs.

SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2

FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is without doubt one of the FCS’ most dependable applications and ought to be robust once more this fall, however North Dakota has begun 2025 by practically beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies higher be prepared for a slugfest.

SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6