[2025-09-18] Premium Spikes, Protection Loss Will Worsen If Republicans Fail to Act on Tax Credit, CBO Says

September 18,2025

New Analysis Requested by Senate Democratic Leaders Shows Cost of Inaction on American Families’ Health Costs and Demonstrates Immediate Harm of Republican Cuts

Text of CBO Analysis (Link)

Washington, D.C. – Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee Ranking Member Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. issued an announcement after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan finances scorekeeper, launched an evaluation of the hurt ensuing from Republicans’ struggle on well being care, together with their repeated assaults on the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

“American families are about to have health care sticker shock unless Republicans start working with Democrats to avert a health care catastrophe,” Wyden stated. “The cost of inaction outlined in this analysis is a stark contrast with Republican leaders’ complete lack of urgency to stop the premium spikes and coverage loss facing millions of Americans. It’s time to come together to stop the health care carnage that’s going to harm families and communities across the country.”

“Three times this year, Democrats tried to address the Republican-created healthcare crisis and extend the lifesaving ACA tax credits, and every time, Senate Republicans refused,” Leader Schumer stated. “Today’s CBO report only crystalizes what Democrats have warned if Republicans let these the ACA tax credits expire – millions of Americans will have significantly worse and more expensive healthcare coverage or be kicked off their plans entirely. As millions of Americans prepare for their health insurance costs to go through the roof, Senate Republicans turn to deeper cuts to the ACA marketplace, making it harder to get health insurance and more expensive to keep it. The cruelty is almost unimaginable: the Republicans were okay ripping away healthcare from millions and driving up costs to unthinkable highs, just to provide tax breaks to billionaires and special interests. It is beyond time for Republicans to come to the negotiating table and work with Democrats to find a solution to this upcoming catastrophe.”

“15 million Americans are going to lose access to health care due to Republicans’ actions. Their ‘Big, Ugly Betrayal’ Law gutted health care, cut access to food assistance, and exploded the debt by trillions of dollars – all to give tax breaks for billionaires. Republicans in Congress are driving costs up for working families. That includes a huge increase in health care costs as they slash the tax credits that so many families rely on. It’s disgraceful, and only makes it harder for families to make ends meet. This is just more of their families lose, and billionaires win agenda,” Merkley stated.

“Americans already pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for health care. And it is going to get much worse. Thanks to the massive cuts to health care in Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill,’ health insurance premiums will rise, on average, by 75% for 20 million Americans — all so Republicans could give massive tax breaks to billionaires and huge corporations. Working class Americans cannot afford that. These cuts must be rescinded,” Sanders stated.

The findings from CBO embrace:

• If Congress fails to behave to increase the ACA tax credit earlier than September 30, there might be unavoidable premium spikes and protection losses in 2026 even when the tax credit are prolonged at a later date.
• Failure to increase ACA tax credit would trigger 3.6 million Americans to lose their medical health insurance, and enhance premiums by 7.6 % for the over 20 million individuals who purchase protection on the ACA Marketplace over the finances window.
• Repealing the provisions of the Trump administration ACA rule would shield ACA protection for 1.8 million folks, and scale back out-of-pocket prices for everybody with ACA protection. CBO’s estimates replicate the present court docket keep on the rule.
• Repealing the ACA cuts within the Republican reconciliation invoice would shield protection for two.9 million individuals who purchase their very own insurance coverage on the ACA Marketplace.
• The Republican assaults on the ACA this yr inject uncertainty into insurance coverage markets throughout the nation that may make premiums extra unstable and make it extra difficult for working folks to enroll and stay enrolled in inexpensive protection.
• The newest estimate from CBO brings the full Republican well being care cuts to almost $2 trillion, between the reconciliation invoice, failing to increase the ACA tax credit, and actions by the Trump administration. 15 million Americans will lose their medical health insurance, together with 7 million shedding protection by way of the Affordable Care Act. That quantity might develop pending court docket motion.

The evaluation comes as boosted tax credit for Americans who purchase medical health insurance on their very own are as a consequence of expire on the finish of 2025. The time for motion is now: open enrollment to buy medical health insurance begins on November 1st. If the tax credit usually are not prolonged, Americans will see considerably larger premiums and deductibles and lots of might be deterred from purchasing additional. Additionally, medical health insurance corporations will start sending notices about larger premiums to Americans enrolled of their plans as soon as premium charges are finalized in October.

Republicans’ refusal to mitigate this premium disaster is amplified by the Trump administration’s rulemaking and Republicans’ finances invoice. Trump’s ACA rule, components of that are at the moment blocked by the courts, will ensnare Americans who purchase their very own insurance coverage in pink tape, enhance their well being care prices, and let insurance coverage corporations supply worse high quality protection, whereas CBO’s evaluation confirms Trumpcare cuts lots of of billions from the ACA that may bury folks in search of inexpensive well being care protection in pink tape.

The full evaluation might be discovered here.

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