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Aurora watchers: do not pack up your cameras simply but, because the northern lights might return for one final dazzling show tonight (Oct. 2) earlier than circumstances calm down once more over the weekend.
Over the previous few nights, geomagnetic exercise has repeatedly exceeded expectations, with a slightly stunning G3 (robust) geomagnetic storm lighting up skies as far south as New York on Wednesday night time (Oct. 1). Now, forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) say the present is not fairly over but. A G2 (average) geomagnetic storm watch stays in impact for tonight, as high-speed photo voltaic wind continues to buffet Earth’s magnetic area.
“G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm activity was observed on 02 October at 0559 UTC.” NOAA’s SWPC reports. “Similar conditions are expected to continue through 02/1200 UTC with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels being likely thereafter.”
When and where can you see the northern lights tonight?
NOAA’s latest 3-day Kp index forecast reveals that geomagnetic exercise might attain G1 (minor) storm ranges for a lot of at the moment (Oct. 2), with a possible G2 (average) peak between 9 a.m. and 12 p.m. GMT (5 a.m. to eight a.m. EDT). Although this peak happens throughout daylight for a lot of aurora chasers, exercise is anticipated to stay elevated all through the day and into the night hours, providing a good likelihood for northern lights sightings after darkish — particularly if the storm energy holds or intensifies because it has on earlier nights.
If G2 circumstances materialize, the aurora might as soon as once more be seen throughout a large swath of the northern U.S., climate allowing. Based on NOAA’s newest aurora oval forecast, the next states look like no less than partially above or extraordinarily near the aurora view line tonight.
States that could see the northern lights tonight
- Alaska
- Washington
- Idaho
- Montana
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- New York
- Maine
- Wyoming
Auroras are highly unpredictable, and if G2 or even G3 geomagnetic storm levels are reached — as they were on previous nights — the auroral oval could expand farther south to include additional states like Vermont, and possibly parts of northern Pennsylvania, Iowa, or Oregon’s southern half under the right conditions.
Northern Hemisphere aurora forecast courtesy of the Met Office
Will the auroras continue into the weekend?
Unfortunately, this may be the last night of significant aurora activity from this particular space weather event. Both NOAA and the U.K. Met Office expect geomagnetic conditions to gradually settle after Oct. 2, as solar wind speeds begin to decline and Earth moves out of the most active part of the solar wind stream.
There may still be occasional active periods into Oct. 3, but the chance of G1 or stronger storms will diminish.
How to see the northern lights where you live
If you’re in one of the 12 U.S. states listed above, here are some tips for catching the display:
- Head to a dark location far from city lights.
- Find a north-facing view with a clear horizon.
- Look up around midnight to 2 a.m. local time, but keep watch as soon as skies darken.
- Be patient. Auroras often come in waves and can appear faint at first.
We recommend downloading a space weather app that provides aurora forecasts based on your location. One option I use is “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts,” available for both iOS and Android. However, any comparable app ought to work nicely. I additionally use the “Space Weather Live” app, which is accessible on iOS and Android, to get a deeper understanding of whether or not the present area climate circumstances are favorable for aurora sightings.
What’s inflicting the aurora exercise?
This ongoing bout of geomagnetic unrest is being pushed by a stream of quick photo voltaic wind flowing from a optimistic polarity coronal gap, a area of open magnetic area strains on the sun that allows solar particles to escape into space. These high-speed solar winds have been blasting Earth at speeds exceeding 800 km/s (1.8 million mph), stirring up Earth’s magnetic field and creating ideal conditions for auroras.
What’s more, Earth’s current connection to this coronal hole is especially strong due to the equinox, known as the Russell-McPherson Effect. This seasonal alignment makes the planet’s magnetic field more sensitive to solar disturbances around the spring and fall equinoxes.
According to NOAA, photo voltaic wind circumstances stay “elevated and disturbed,” with the magnetic area orientation (often known as Bz) regularly dipping southward — a key ingredient for energizing geomagnetic storms and producing seen auroras.
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