Week 11 school soccer video games almost definitely to shake up the CFP rankings

The College Football Playoff would not get underway for an additional six weeks, however these remaining weeks of the common season are a playoff in their very own proper with greater than two dozen viable contenders jockeying weekly for these 12 coveted spots.

Week 11 of the school soccer schedule options some high-stakes matchups that would make or break the hopes of a number of colleges.

Here are the Week 11 school soccer video games almost definitely to shake up the newly-released CFP rankings that debuted Tuesday.

(We’re utilizing the CFP rankings relatively than AP rankings transferring ahead; all recreation occasions ET; all level spreads by way of ESPN Bet)

Texas Tech has been as dominant as any crew in school soccer this season, with all eight of its wins coming by 23 or extra factors.

And but, the merciless actuality is that if the Red Raiders lose Saturday, there is no assure they discover their means into the playoffs.

Texas Tech’s solely loss got here final month by a slender 26-22 margin on the highway at Arizona State in a recreation that beginning quarterback Behren Morton missed as a consequence of damage. That’s the lone blemish on the Red Raiders’ resume, and maybe that can be considered by the choice committee (it definitely ought to).

Their dilemma, although, is that in the event that they lose to BYU on Saturday, the Cougars and Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1, on bye this week) would management their paths to the Big 12 championship recreation. And even when Cincinnati loses once more, the Red Raiders might nonetheless be amongst a bunch of two-loss Big 12 groups sorting by tiebreaker situations (Houston, Utah, Arizona State, and TCU enter this week with two Big 12 losses).

That’s all very pertinent as a result of … provided that the Big 12 solely acquired one crew into the CFP area final yr, would a two-loss Texas Tech crew that will get shut out of the convention championship recreation have a shot at an at-large berth?

Hard to say. The Red Raiders have just one win over a ranked opponent (Utah) and shut out the schedule in opposition to UCF and West Virginia, which does not assist. It could be attention-grabbing to see how far they’d drop with a loss to an undefeated top-10 crew. It definitely will depend on not simply the end result, but in addition how the sport unfolds. However, already at No. 8, there is not actually wherever for Texas Tech to slip and really feel snug.

If the Red Raiders win, nevertheless, they’d stay in whole management of their playoff path.

For BYU, in the meantime, it is unlikely {that a} win on Saturday would vault the Cougars forward of the highest six groups within the present CFP rankings, barring an upset loss; nevertheless, they may maintain serve in a powerful place. With a loss, BYU might conceivably tumble to round 12 and dent its possibilities for an at-large berth if it would not win the Big 12’s automated bid.

Texas Tech is a ten.5-point favourite.

The recreation of the week within the SEC units up as an elimination recreation for Missouri and arguably the hardest take a look at since September for unbeaten Texas A&M.

For the Tigers, it is plain and easy. No three-loss crew earned an at-large berth into the playoffs final yr, and none will this yr both. Missouri has to win out in opposition to the Aggies, Mississippi State, at No. 12 Oklahoma and at Arkansas.

And it should face Texas A&M  (dislocated ankle), whereas beginning true freshman Matt Zollers, however that is not essentially a dagger for Mizzou. The Tigers are constructed on the energy of their run recreation led by Ahmad Hardy, who’s third nationally at 117.13 speeding yards per recreation, and their top-5 protection (245.8 yards per recreation allowed).

Texas A&M, in the meantime, positive seemed like the true deal two weeks in the past in its 49-25 win at then-No. 20 LSU that ended the Brian Kelly Era in Baton Rouge. But the one different ranked crew the Aggies performed this season was in Week 3 once they gained 41-40 in a wild recreation at Notre Dame.

Missouri hasn’t gotten quite a lot of nationwide buzz, however its solely losses had been to ranked Alabama and Vanderbilt (on the highway), and each had been aggressive one-score video games. A win right here would warrant vaulting the Tigers, perhaps to the perimeter of the highest 12 — relying on how the committee felt about it, leapfrogging a Vanderbilt it misplaced to head-to-head. Even if it did not rise that prime within the rankings, Missouri would nonetheless be in a great place, with the chance at No. 12 Oklahoma nonetheless forward.

If Texas A&M will get previous this hurdle, it nonetheless has a highway recreation at No. 11 Texas to shut out the schedule after which doubtlessly the SEC championship recreation. Everything is within the Aggies’ management proper now.

Even with a loss, it might be onerous to see Texas A&M dropping any decrease than No. 8.

Texas A&M is a 6.5-point favourite.

Iowa was maybe the largest beneficiary of the CFP choice committee, which ranked the Hawkeyes No. 20 regardless of the AP voters leaving them out of the highest 25 all season.

Iowa has obtained nearly no nationwide playoff buzz to this point, however that would change in a rush. The Hawkeyes are particularly robust to play in Iowa City, dropping only one recreation at residence every of the final three years (together with 20-15 to No. 2 Indiana this season in the one shut recreation the Hoosiers have performed).

If Iowa will get previous an excellent however beatable Oregon crew at residence, it might get a serious surge up the CFP rankings after which shut out with a highway recreation at at all times susceptible No. 19 USC, a house recreation in opposition to reeling Michigan State and a highway finale in opposition to Nebraska (with out its beginning quarterback).

The Hawkeyes haven’t got a path to the Big Ten championship recreation barring whole chaos, however add wins over ranked Oregon and USC groups to a resume that has simply two respectable losses (16-13 on the highway at then-ranked Iowa State in a rivalry recreation and by 5 factors to No. 2 Indiana) they usually could possibly be positioned because the third Big Ten crew into the playoff area.

But that is additionally an elimination recreation for Iowa, clearly — there isn’t a different playoff path however profitable out.

As for Oregon …

The Ducks are No. 6 within the AP high 25 however acquired slotted No. 9 within the preliminary CFP rankings, that means the committee is already somewhat extra essential of their resume.

Oregon’s solely win over a then-ranked opponent has been undermined by Penn State’s precipitous slide since that late September showdown in Happy Valley. Oregon then misplaced its largest recreation, 30-20 at residence to Indiana.

The Ducks completely have to win this one, however can also have to win out (with remaining video games in opposition to Minnesota, No. 19 USC, and at No. 23 Washington). If unbeaten Ohio State and Indiana stay on their collision course for the Big Ten championship recreation, which means the likes of Oregon, Iowa, USC, Michigan, and Washington are competing for at-large invitations. Four Big Ten groups made it onto the bracket final yr, however that is no assure if the Big 12 grabs an additional spot this yr or the SEC provides yet one more.

As for Saturday, with the committee already taking a extra scrutinous take a look at Oregon, a loss right here would ship it means down the rankings.

Oregon is a 6.5-point favourite.

Any school soccer fan is aware of {that a} crew that simply fired its coach main right into a bye week is a complete wild card within the subsequent recreation.

Sometimes that reset gives an actual spark for a gifted however underachieving crew. That’s why LSU, in its first recreation beneath interim head coach Frank Wilson, cannot be counted out right here, particularly after Wilson invited former Tigers back to watch practices and discuss with/encourage the crew.

More to the purpose, LSU has completely nothing to lose at this level and nonetheless has a gifted roster — the rationale it was considered as a high 10 crew earlier within the season.

A loss would not essentially be damning for Alabama, which has gained seven straight video games (4 over ranked opponents) for the reason that season-opening loss to Florida State. However, it might knock the Crimson Tide down a number of pegs within the rankings and definitely heighten the strain on the remaining video games, together with subsequent week’s matchup in opposition to No. 12 Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl in opposition to Auburn.

Alabama is a 9.5-point favourite.

Virginia appears like probably the most susceptible crew within the high 15 of the CFP rankings.

The Cavaliers’ document is shiny, however their resume is actually constructed on two coin-flip extra time wins over Florida State (a high 10 crew on the time however now nowhere near the rankings) and at Louisville (now No. 15) in back-to-back weeks.

Since then, Virginia has been strolling a good rope to keep up its rating. It barely acquired previous a foul Washington State crew at residence, 22-20, then wanted extra time to flee lowly North Carolina, 17-16, and was in a three-point recreation on the highway at Cal earlier than tacking on a pick-6 within the remaining minute for a 31-21 win. None of these groups is especially robust, and being pushed to the wire by all three is not notably inspiring for the Cavaliers.

It’s additionally onerous to play with hearth that persistently and never ultimately get burned.

Wake Forest is a middling crew that simply misplaced 42-7 at Florida State, however earlier than that it upset SMU a pair weeks in the past, 13-12, and will definitely play spoiler right here.

Any loss ought to knock Virginia out of the CFP rankings, given its skinny resume, so the Cavaliers have to at the very least play their means into the ACC championship recreation to be ok with their playoff possibilities.

Virginia is a 6.5-point favourite.