Judging largest overreactions for NFL Week 10 video games

We had been beginning to run low on superlatives for Colts operating again Jonathan Taylor and the season he is having. Thankfully, he gave us a brand new one Sunday. That was, with out query, probably the most spectacular efficiency ever by an NFL participant in Berlin.

OK, so it was the primary NFL sport ever performed in Berlin. You’ve bought me there. But I’m pretty assured Taylor’s effort would maintain up even when they stored enjoying video games there for the following couple of many years. Taylor rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns — together with the extra time sport winner — in Sunday’s 31-25 victory over the Falcons. He caught three passes for an extra 42 yards, in order that’s 286 whole yards from scrimmage, together with a wide ranging 83-yard TD run that got here together with his workforce down a degree with simply over six minutes left within the fourth quarter.

Every week after he had simply 45 yards on 14 carries for his worst sport of the season (and his workforce’s worst sport of the season), Taylor authored his better of the season and bought the Colts again on observe. Indianapolis is 8-2, tied with the Broncos and Patriots for the perfect document within the NFL via Week 10. It was his fourth outing this season with no less than three speeding touchdowns. LaDainian Tomlinson holds the document for probably the most such video games in a season with 5, and Taylor nonetheless has seven video games left to play. It isn’t an overreaction to say he deserves to steer this week’s overreactions column, the place we dimension up which takeaways are reputable.

Jump to:
Taylor will break a number of information
Bills’ deadline inactivity will value them
Chiefs-Broncos will determine AFC West
Seahawks-Rams will determine NFC West
Commanders’ season is over
Fantasy-related overreactions

Jonathan Taylor will break a number of single-season NFL information

Taylor is on tempo for two,378 scrimmage yards, which might be the fourth-most ever in a season and inside shouting distance of Chris Johnson’s document of two,509. He’s on tempo for 1,936 speeding yards, which might be the tenth most of all time. But with one other sport or two over 200, he might make a run at Eric Dickerson’s document of two,105.

In the scoring division, he is on tempo for 26 speeding touchdowns, which might be the fourth most of all time. The document for that’s Tomlinson’s 28 in 2006. And he is on tempo for 28 whole touchdowns, which might tie for the second most ever and be simply three behind Tomlinson’s 31 in 2006.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Last week’s loss to Pittsburgh apart, this Colts offense has been an absolute wagon, and Taylor has been its engine. (Do wagons have engines? I do not know. Just go along with it.) He’s liable to attain from wherever on the sphere. He has no Zach Charbonnet or Blake Corum or Tyler Allgeier that Indianapolis makes use of to spell him and put a cap on his particular person statistical manufacturing.

It will not essentially be simple, since he has solely two video games left towards groups that do not have top-five speeding defenses. But the Colts are going to maintain leaning on him, and so long as the offensive line retains enjoying properly, there is no telling how far Taylor can take this.

The Bills’ incapacity to seek out assist on the commerce deadline will value them the AFC East

Coming off their most spectacular win of the season — a Week 9 throttling of the three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs — the Bills went all the way down to Miami and laid an egg towards a divisional opponent with one of many league’s worst information. Fair to count on a letdown after final week, I assume, however Buffalo cannot be shedding to the Dolphins if it desires us to take it critically as a Super Bowl contender.

Plus, the Patriots — who already gained in Buffalo earlier this season — gained their seventh sport in a row Sunday to enhance to 8-2, which places them a sport and a half forward of the Bills within the division standings. This loss might come again to hang-out the Bills even when they beat the Patriots in Foxborough in Week 15. The second tiebreaker for division standings, after head-to-head document, is document in division video games. The Bills are 2-2 towards AFC East groups whereas the Pats are 2-0.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Two years in the past, it appeared just like the Dolphins had been going to run away with the division, and the Bills nonetheless caught them within the remaining week to assert the crown. Buffalo has gained the AFC East 5 years in a row. It is aware of the best way to do it.

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Josh Allen fumbles on failed tush push

Josh Allen will get the first down then fumbles to present the soccer again to Miami.

Could the Bills have used some assistance on the defensive aspect of the ball on the deadline? Absolutely, and so they tried to seek out it. They are permitting 147.6 speeding yards per sport and have already given up extra speeding TDs than they did all final season (14), per ESPN Research. But coach Sean McDermott and his employees have proven again and again that they will get their protection into playoff form by December and January.

The Patriots are legit, do not get me unsuitable, and Drake Maye is a deserving favourite for MVP in the intervening time. But the Bills have performed this, and the present iteration of the Patriots haven’t. I must see that little “x” subsequent to New England within the standings earlier than I imagine it.

The winner of subsequent week’s Chiefs-Broncos matchup will win the AFC West

Denver opened the week with one of many least spectacular wins in NFL historical past, beating the Raiders 10-7 on Thursday evening in a sport I really feel dangerous even mentioning. The Broncos have gained simply two video games this season by a couple of rating. They beat the Jets by two factors, the Giants by one level and the Raiders by three. By rights, they need to have misplaced no less than two of these video games, if not all three.

But they did not, and so they’re 8-2 and in first place. The Chiefs, on bye this week, are 5-4 and in third place forward of subsequent week’s journey to Denver. They’re coming off one of the crucial lackluster performances of the Patrick Mahomes period (final week’s loss to Buffalo), however they will even be coming off that bye, and Andy Reid is 22-4 all-time off a bye. This units as much as be the highest sport of Week 11.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Look, I do know what I simply mentioned in regards to the Bills. And I do know the Chiefs have gained this division 9 years in a row. I additionally know that the Broncos are skating by in a number of these video games and that one-score win luck tends to meet up with most groups finally. But I’m simply speaking in regards to the math right here.

If Denver wins subsequent week, it’s going to go into its personal bye week main the Chiefs by three and a half video games. Even if Kansas City beats the Colts in Week 12, the Broncos would come out of the bye week with a three-game lead and 6 video games to play. I by no means put something previous Reid and Mahomes, however that may be a troublesome hill to climb.

Conversely, if the Chiefs win subsequent week, the Broncos go into their bye nonetheless questioning if they’ve what it takes to recover from that Kansas City hump. If the Chiefs beat the Colts in Week 12, they might be only one sport behind the Broncos with six to play and would have one head-to-head tiebreaker victory in hand. Huge, big swing, no less than so far as I can inform.

The winner of subsequent week’s Seahawks-Rams matchup will win the NFC West

There had been spectacular division wins for these groups Sunday. The Seahawks jumped out to a 35-0 first-half lead over Arizona and cruised from there. The Rams constructed a 21-0 lead on the 49ers, who got here again and lower it to at least one rating however could not overcome L.A. for the season sweep. According to ESPN Research, Matthew Stafford turned the primary QB ever with 4 landing passes and nil interceptions in three straight video games, whereas the Seahawks’ protection completed with 22 pressures.

Now the Rams and Seahawks are each 7-2 and play one another in Los Angeles on Sunday in one other one of many actually big video games of the week.

The Niners’ damage points mixed with Sunday’s loss depart the workforce at 6-4, a sport and a half behind the Rams and Seahawks, and Arizona is mentioning the rear at 3-6 after its first blowout lack of the season. So the winner of Seahawks-Rams in Week 11 will probably be within the driver’s seat within the NFC West.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The winner of subsequent week’s sport could have a one-game lead, and these groups play one another once more in Week 16. This division is way from over, regardless of who wins Sunday. Yes, the victor could have a leg up, however the Rams nonetheless have each of their Arizona video games left together with video games towards the Bucs and the Lions. The Seahawks nonetheless have one other 49ers sport to play in addition to a sport towards the Colts.

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Sam Darnold airs out 43-yard TD move to Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold connects with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a protracted landing because the Seahawks strike first vs. the Cardinals.

The Rams and Seahawks are tied for first, however this NFC West is a beast of a division. The 49ers play powerful, and so do the Cardinals, who earlier than Sunday had not misplaced a sport by greater than 4 factors all season and simply stifled the high-octane Cowboys offense on Nov. 3. There’s a loooooong solution to go within the West, regardless of who wins subsequent Sunday.

Jayden Daniels should not play once more this season even when he is cleared

The Commanders’ electrifying second-year quarterback dislocated his left elbow towards the top of the workforce’s Week 9 loss to Seattle and missed Sunday’s loss to the Lions in consequence. He might need to overlook extra video games with the damage, which is his third important damage of the season. But the Commanders are 3-7 and their once-promising season looks as if it will not finish with a second consecutive playoff berth.

There is a little bit of a drumbeat round the concept, by the point Daniels is cleared to return to play, Washington will probably be out of it and will not be well worth the danger of additional damage to place him again into video games, as he is too vital to the franchise’s long-term future. We do not know for certain when or even when he will probably be cleared to return, but when it isn’t till after the workforce’s Week 12 bye, you possibly can sort of see the reasoning behind the argument.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Well, I hate this argument. I perceive the premise behind it, however I hate it.

Football is a harmful sport. Any participant can get harm on actually any play. Daniels is a soccer participant and needs to play. Washington remains to be charging for the tickets and may really feel a accountability to place the absolute best product on the sphere. And Daniels is a large a part of the Commanders’ absolute best product. He’s additionally a second-year quarterback who might stand to play and proceed to realize expertise. The damage is not to his legs or his throwing arm. If the medical doctors say he can play and it is secure, then he ought to play, interval.

Plus … who’s to say the Commanders are out of it? If they beat Miami subsequent week in Madrid, they go into the bye at 4-7. Seven groups make the playoffs in every convention. Bring Daniels again, run the desk to get to 10-7 and possibly squeak in to make one other run just like the one they made final season. Don’t play scared.

Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions

• TreVeyon Henderson is a must-start RB from right here on out. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Yeah, he might theoretically return right into a timeshare as soon as Rhamondre Stevenson is wholesome, and the Patriots’ teaching employees has but to point out sufficient belief within the rookie that you simply really feel one hundred pc assured he is set-and-forget. But two lengthy landing runs Sunday reminded you of why you drafted him within the first place. Very few backs provide that a lot week-winning upside.

• You must seize Tyler Shough in the event you’re in a keeper league. OVERREACTION. Hey, going 19-for-27 for 282 yards and two landing passes is nothing to sneeze at. But in the event you’re enjoying in a one-QB league, I feel you are secure ready to see him do it once more. The Saints are having the sort of season that ends in very excessive draft picks, and there might be a QB in subsequent yr’s first spherical they like higher than this man.

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Tyler Shough connects with Chris Olave for a 62-yd Saints’ TD

Chris Olave loses his defender and reaches the top zone for a 62-yard landing.

• Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can each be in fantasy beginning lineups. OVERREACTION. I imply, they can, I assume, in the event you’re coping with accidents or bye weeks or no matter. But even Sunday, Allgeier’s massive sport got here on the expense of Robinson’s goal-line work. I’ve lived that life, my buddies. I’ve tried it. I can not suggest it as a weekly expertise.

• Justin Jefferson’s fantasy ceiling is capped by J.J. McCarthy. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I actually want it had been an overreaction, however we have not seen something but to persuade us the McCarthy-led offense is something aside from a low-volume passing sport. Jordan Addison and even Jalen Nailor are simply as liable to have the large sport as Jefferson. Sure, the Vikings threw it 42 instances Sunday, however McCarthy nonetheless had solely 248 yards. That’s 90 greater than he had in any of his first three video games because the starter. I’m hoping it will get higher, however hope is all I’ve for you.

• Tyler Warren is the TE1 in subsequent yr’s drafts. OVERREACTION. I really like Warren and what he is doing and his function in that Colts offense, however for goodness’ sake, man. … What if Brock Bowers will get a QB improve?