49ers-Bears and different Week 17 video games that may have enormous influence on playoff races

The Athletic has reside protection of Texans vs. Chargers and Ravens vs Packers.

With two weeks remaining within the NFL common season, the playoff image is taking kind, however the seeding inside every convention is nowhere near settled. Seven of the eight divisions are nonetheless up for grabs, and neither the AFC nor the NFC boasts a workforce with a minimum of a 60 % probability to earn the No. 1 seed. What’s extra, assuming there aren’t any ties this week, no workforce can clinch the highest spot and safe the first-round bye, which suggests each conferences’ prime seeds will seemingly come all the way down to how Week 18 unfolds.

However, there may be lots at stake this week. As at all times, we are going to use The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model, to see which post-Christmas Week 17 video games have the most important influence on the postseason image. There are 5 video games that I’ve chosen to spotlight, with the drama actually getting underway on Saturday.

The Houston Texans weren’t among the many trio of groups that clinched playoff berths with the Indianapolis Colts’ loss on Monday Night Football, however they’ve nearly locked up a spot. A win or tie this week secures their spot this week, as does a Colts loss or tie. The AFC South title remains to be inside Houston’s attain, and a win will preserve it within the hunt for Week 18, no matter what the Jacksonville Jaguars do. However, a loss paired with a Jaguars win or tie would eradicate them from division competition. A win and a Jaguars loss can be supreme, because the Texans would then have an 84 % probability to win the AFC South for a 3rd straight season.

I’m undecided how the Los Angeles Chargers are alive for the AFC West with the entire offensive line accidents they’ve endured this season, however with two weeks to go, they’ve an actual shot. With a playoff berth already clinched, that is the one drama remaining for them. They by no means may have clinched the division this week, however they are often eradicated with a loss after the Denver Broncos’ win on Thursday evening. A Chargers win ensures that the AFC West will likely be determined in Denver throughout Week 18 with a winner-take-all matchup. Also, Chargers followers ought to root in opposition to the New England Patriots, because the Chargers would nonetheless be alive for the AFC No. 1 seed with a Patriots loss and a win over the Texans.

It’s fairly easy for the Ravens this week. They must win — a tie knocks them out of the AFC North race — and the Pittsburgh Steelers should lose to the Cleveland Browns. You learn that proper. It doesn’t matter if the Ravens beat the Green Bay Packers if the Steelers beat the Browns. A Steelers win on Sunday will clinch the AFC North. If the Browns come by for the Ravens on Sunday, nevertheless, that might make for a Week 18 winner-take-all matchup between the Ravens and Steelers in Pittsburgh.

The Packers appeared primed to win the NFC North, however a disastrous fourth quarter and additional time final Saturday in opposition to the Chicago Bears has Green Bay with some work to do to win the division. They already clinched a playoff spot with the Lions’ loss on Thursday, however to win the NFC North title, properly, a loss knocks them out of competition, as does a Bears win, as does a Packers tie and a Bears tie.

However, a Packers win and a Bears loss would imply that Week 18 will determine the division, with the Packers needing a win and one other Bears loss. Please observe, nevertheless, that these odds may swing fairly a bit relying on the well being of quarterback Jordan Love over the following two weeks.

Playoff hopes for the Colts are on life help after their loss to the 49ers on Monday. In truth, they’re at simply 1 % to make the dance heading into Week 17. Now, they should win out and have the Texans lose out. I discussed it above for the Texans’ clinching situations, however the Colts will likely be eradicated with a loss or tie or a Texans win or tie.

The Jaguars may be the most popular workforce in soccer, they usually’ll look to proceed that momentum by clinching the AFC South this weekend. A Jaguars win over the Colts is not sufficient to clinch by itself, but when it is paired with a Texans loss or tie, that might get the job executed. They may clinch the division with a tie and a Texans loss. They’re nonetheless alive for the AFC’s prime seed, as properly, however a loss this weekend would eradicate them.

Not solely was the Seattle Seahawks’ comeback win in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams final week thrilling from an leisure standpoint, however the stakes could not have been a lot larger, as Seattle is now within the driver’s seat to win each the NFC West and the NFC title. The Seahawks even have an opportunity to clinch the No. 1 seed this weekend with a win and a Rams loss or a tie and a 49ers-Bears tie. That’s extremely unlikely, so we will deal with the NFC West title, which is far more achievable. The Seahawks clinch the NFC West with a win plus a Rams loss or tie, along with a 49ers loss or tie. Those situations are nonetheless unlikely, so the main focus ought to merely be on profitable, which might increase their division odds from 50 % to 61 %.

The Carolina Panthers’ path to the playoffs is straightforward. A win, paired with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss or tie, clinches the NFC South for Carolina. The similar goes for a Panthers tie paired with a Bucs loss. If neither of these outcomes holds, the division comes all the way down to a winner-take-all battle throughout Week 18 in Tampa. Right now, my mannequin has the Panthers at 45 % to win the division. A win boosts that quantity to 58 %, however a Bucs win sinks these odds to 37 %. The Panthers will likely be an underdog in Tampa Bay because it stands right this moment.

After beating Green Bay final week, the trail for the Bears is straightforward. Win this weekend or watch the Packers lose on Saturday, and they’re NFC North champions. Chicago is at present 86 % to win the division, and a loss solely drops it to 77 %. There is not any purpose to panic going into Week 18, even when that’s second nature to Bears’ followers at this level. As I discussed with the Packers, so much relies on the well being of Jordan Love. However, it is not simply the division on the road this week; the Bears are nonetheless alive for the highest seed. A win will increase their odds to 35 % to clinch the first-round bye, whereas a loss would eradicate them.

The 49ers have every little thing in entrance of them. They management their path to profitable the NFC West in addition to the No. 1 seed. A win over the Bears will increase their division odds to 46 %, establishing a win-and-clinch situation in opposition to Seattle in Week 18. While that must be the principle focus, profitable a minimum of one recreation ought to assist their seeding, as proper now, they’ve a 12 % probability to be the No. 5 seed but in addition a 9 % probability to be the No. 7 seed.