Enjoyable with Small Pattern Spring Stats: Daulton Varsho

Hello Bluebird Banterers and welcome to my first put up, formally referred to as nute39jays I might be making an attempt to assist out the 2 Tom’s with some posts.

It is the time of 12 months the place a profession minor leaguer can appear to be an All Star and a unknown prospect can put themselves on the general public’s radar however, as most know, you may by no means consider something that occurs in Spring Training what with the small samples and veteran gamers engaged on sure facets of their video games. However that doesn’t imply it might probably’t be enjoyable to have a look across the Jays Spring Training stats and ask what if this was sustainable or do deep dive to search for indicators of precise enchancment as an alternative of small pattern dimension noise.

I might be digging through some batted ball knowledge and underlying metrics on a couple of Blue Jays who’ve had some fascinating begins to their Spring Training to see if even on this small pattern there may very well be one thing to be excited for or if their present manufacturing has been extra of a mirage that’s more likely to fall off extra in direction of their anticipated manufacturing transferring ahead.

First up is Daulton Varsho who in his first two seasons as a Jay hit 217/289/398 with 38 HRs, a 24.9% Okay charge and a 8.5% BB charge for a 91 WRC+ over 1094 PAs.

Varsho went into final season coming off a low season shoulder surgical procedure and I’d be mendacity if I stated I wasn’t anxious as traditionally shoulder surgical procedures have had a serious affect on a participant’s offense the next season however Varsho bucked that pattern and put collectively simply his strongest season as a Jay regardless of the ought to surgical procedure and one other two months missed resulting from a hamstring harm Varsho hit .234/.284/.548 with 20 HRs, a 28.4% Okay charge and a 6.3% BB charge for 123 WRC+ over 271 PAs.

Last season, Varsho had profession highs in AVG EV, Max EV, Barrel charge, Hard Hit Rate, Fly Ball charge and Okay charge so regarded like a batter promoting out for energy and properly it labored for him he had the bottom Zone Contact and complete Contact charges of his profession however when you find yourself hitting a HR each 14 PAs whereas being one the perfect defensive CFs in MLB that’s going to offer a ton of worth.

Going into Spring Training, the query was what would Varsho do that 12 months would he nonetheless be hitting HRs at 44 per 600 tempo and to this point in a really small pattern he’s hitting .432/.475/.946 which after all shouldn’t be going to final however for me once I dug through the information there may be one stat that I can’t ignore, not solely is Varsho carrying ahead the ability from final season however he’s doing so whereas enhancing his contact charge and placing out at ridiculously low 2.5%!

Obviously this stage of hitting shouldn’t be sustainable for anybody however a Varsho who hits for energy like he did final season whereas enhancing his contact charge and whereas nonetheless taking part in his customary excessive finish protection in CF could be on the verge of at the very least an All Star season if not an MVP stage kind of season.

It is Spring Training so my first thought was he’s feasting on minor leaguers and his opponent high quality has been roughly between AA and AAA stage based on Baseball Reference however he has additionally hit very properly in opposition to some identified pitchers having HRs off Skubal, Abel in addition to a 2B off Vest, a 3B off Warren and base hits off Abel, Chandler and Alvarado.

I additionally thought of possibly he’s simply not placing out as a result of it’s Spring Training and the lesser high quality of pitching however his lowest Okay charge in Spring Training since 2023 was 15% from the 2024 season, that common season his Okay charge did bounce to 26.7% however his Called+Swinging Strike% that Spring Training was 21.5% which implies he was seemingly heading to a regression in Okay charge as CSW% tends to an honest job predicting future Okay charges though like most stats wants extra knowledge than Spring Training offers in an effort to stabilize.

Varsho was by no means going to maintain a 2.5% Okay charge, however like his 2024 season the dangerous information for the sustainability of his Okay charge enchancment can also be going to be dampened so much by his CSW% to this point in Spring Training as he’s massively out performing his 18% CSW.

The enchancment in his CSW% is totally on the contact portion of the stat and that tracks along with his Contact charge being 88.2% this Spring however just like the CSW% he has additionally proven increased Contact charges in previous Spring Trainings but additionally once more just like the CSW% it has by no means been fairly this good earlier than.

Prior to this Spring Varsho’s finest Spring CSW% was 21.5% and his finest Contact charge with common at bats was 84.3%, this Spring his CSW% is eighteen% and his Contact charge is 88.2% so even when Varsho might make sufficient contact to get his Okay charge to the decrease 20% vary that paired with final season’s energy and his glove may very well be sufficient for a 2026 All Star season.

With Spring Training the pattern is just too small to make any sweeping judgements however what do you assume, is Varsho about to have a profession season by placing out much less and hitting 35+ HRs are is the additional contact all a Spring Training mirage.

Let me know within the feedback what do you are expecting for Varsho this season.