The Pirates will win 86 video games, and thanks for asking

They thought Clint Hurdle was nuts. They most likely assume I’m, too.

Hurdle predicted 95 wins in 2013, with the Pirates mired in a 20-year shedding streak.

I’m predicting 86 wins in 2026, with the Pirates mired in a seven-­12 months shedding streak — and I’m going to be each bit as proper as he was (though the Pirates truly received simply 94 in ’13, prompting me to inform Hurdle after a loss within the regular-season finale, “My column tomorrow is that your prediction was wrong.”).

The ’13 Pirates improved by 15 wins of their breakthrough season. This workforce will do exactly the identical.

Am I asking for an excessive amount of? I don’t assume so.

At first blush, a 10-game enhance­ment and a .500 report may sound fairly good to long-suffering Pirates followers.

At second blush, that will not practically be adequate.

The Pirates have to make the playoffs to make this season successful — and that can possible require profitable at the very least 86 video games.

What in the event that they win 86 and miss, you ask?

I’ll get again on that. Let’s simply deal with 86. I selected the quantity as a result of, within the 4 seasons since MLB went to a 3 wild-card format, the typical wins for the ultimate National League wild card was 85.75.

That’s why I like 86.

That’s why they want 86.

The last item anyone needs to listen to is the Pirates crowing over an 81-81 report, telling us they reached .500 once more and did certainly enhance by 10 video games.

That could be true, after all, as they received 71 final season. But it could not be a good baseline by which to measure, as a result of they received 76 in every of the 2 seasons earlier than that. You don’t get the good thing about sinking to a pathetic 71 wins after which measuring your success based mostly on that.

The honest baseline is 76. Win at the very least 10 greater than that earlier than anyone labels this season a triumph of any variety.

I don’t care in regards to the Vegas over/below win whole, both. It has stayed round 78.5 and has risen as excessive as 79.5. Barely eclipsing it could qualify as a failure. The Pirates have to smash it.

They have to get to 86, and they’ll get to 86.

Here’s why:

• A radically improved lineup. Notice I didn’t say a “great” lineup. But there was just one solution to go from the wretched offense they placed on the sector final season. They added a pair of 2025 All-Stars (Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn) and a brand new designated hitter (Marcell Ozuna) who completed fourth within the NL MVP vote simply two years in the past.

Granted, Ozuna is 35, however he’s an enormous cause I’m going with 86. He was nonetheless sizzling when final season started, regardless of a hip harm that continued to nag him for a lot of the season. The harm finally took its toll, however Ozuna reportedly is wholesome now. He performed each sport in 2024, too.

I’m anticipating a bounce again. Even with final 12 months’s downturn, Ozuna was higher than Andrew McCutchen. I see 30-plus house runs right here.

• Two different rebound candidates: Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz.

Reynolds had one outlier nice season (2021) and one outlier terrible season (2025). It solely is smart that he’d get again to being a .270 hitter with an OPS round .800 OPS and 22-25 house runs.

Cruz stunk final season and nonetheless hit 20 house runs and stole 38 bases. Nobody’s asking for Willie Mays, however how about his first 25-home run 12 months? How about 90 runs?

• Star energy. That means Paul Skenes and, ultimately, Konnor Griffin.

Skenes is likely to be the perfect pitcher on the planet. Griffin is the perfect prospect on the planet. He’s the sort of younger, look-the-part stud different groups have all the time delivered to PNC Park.

Why can’t he bust via instantly, like others elsewhere have?

I’m wondering in regards to the rotation past Skenes — Bubba Chandler’s command is a priority, for one factor — and we’ll see in regards to the bullpen, however it’s not like anyone’s predicting 100 wins. Or even 95, as Hurdle so famously did in 2013.

Nobody might consider it.

“When people ask me a number, 95 is the number I throw out there, and people go, ‘Wow, that’s a lot of … ’ and I go, ‘Yeah, you’re right it’s a lot of games,’ ” Hurdle mentioned. “I get it, but you know what? If we win 95, we’re going to be in a good place.”

Yes, and when this workforce wins 86, it will likely be in simply nearly as good a spot: the playoffs. And it’ll win 86.

Mark it down (in pencil).