Las Vegas, New York OSB, gaming trade indicators, SportRadar — CDC Gaming

Las Vegas indicators of a rebound

Barry Jonas of Truist Securities not too long ago met with administration groups and gaming trade contacts in Las Vegas.
Key takeaways from a March 23 observe:

“As Strip comps ease this summer there are signs of positive revenue per available room inflection, but not without risks. Red Rock Resorts locals construction disruptions are near term mild pain to long term severe gain while strong underlying trends should support the long terms bull case across the entire locals market. Higher gas prices don’t seem a wider concern (yet), but One Big Beautiful Bill tax refunds haven’t been a noticeable tailwind either – and the Iran conflict adds uncertainty. Caesars’ M&A chatter remains the talk of the town, despite nothing concrete.”

New York OSB stays regular

David Katz of Jefferies checked out New York statewide on-line sports activities betting on March 22:

“New York statewide OSB hold was up 20 basis points week-over-week to 9.2%, with most operators seeing minimal week-over-week changes except BetMGM, which saw hold increase 790 basis points week-over-week. BetMGM led the group with 11.5% hold, followed by Caesars 10.8% and DraftKings 10.5%. Statewide handle was down (0.3%) year-over-year on the week, with year-to-date statewide handle down (1.5%) year-over-year vs. tough comps (e.g., statewide handle in the first 11 weeks of 2025 was +22% year-over-year). This week, DraftKings led in GGR market share with 37.7% vs. Flutter’s 33.2% and BetMGM’s 9.6%.”

Gaming trade indicators stay optimistic

Chad Beynon of Macquarie on March 20 reported on the corporate’s eleventh Annual Consumer Bright Ideas Conference:

“Consensus stays that Las Vegas will slowly recuperate all year long, supported by a extra sturdy group/conventions schedule and non-gaming occasions, and will even develop year-over-year with continued leisure enchancment. In regionals, the patron stays resilient notably with core clients, whereas the lower-end is now exhibiting development and administration groups count on One Big Beautiful Bill tailwinds in March/April/ May.

“For on-line, each administration groups and buyers have theories for the historic sell-off, however each agree that its overdone and plenty of infants are being thrown out with the bathtub water, each from a predictions market and software program standpoint. Regardless, on-line administration groups stay targeted on what they management – proving out numbers and, consequently, their enterprise mannequin.

“REIT management teams still see lots of opportunities with interest rates stabilized in a healthy range. Overall, the regional pipeline remains solid, supported by tribal/non-tribal, while plenty of opportunities internationally and/or on the non-gaming side exist.”

SportRadar shares on upswing

Samuel Nielsen of J. P. Morgan on March 19 weighed in on Sportradar:

“Sportradar shares are outperforming today (+6% vs. Standard & Poor 500 Index, -0.7%) on news that the MLB named Polymarket as an exclusive prediction market partner, with the partnership including use of official data from Sportradar; there’s also an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commision to establish an integrity framework. We note this announcement follows a letter last week from the CFTC, which suggested prediction markets use official data to settle event contracts, which may have served as another catalyst for the MLB to get involved. We spoke with Sportradar, and while terms of the deal were not disclosed, we think the MLB/Polymarket deal could provide a framework for further league/prediction market deals. We note Sportradar is the official data provider of the MLB.”