Enjoyable with small pattern sizes: An 11-game take a look at the 2026 Atlanta Braves

So, we’re simply over 10 video games into the season for the Atlanta Braves and the on-paper outcomes have been encouraging — even when the on-field outcomes have the Braves only one sport over .500 as they give the impression of being to keep away from dipping beneath that mark as they cope with the seemingly inconceivable process of profitable baseball video games within the state of California.

Let’s begin with the nice, which is that the pitching has been excellent to date. Through 11 video games, Atlanta’s pitching workers has an ERA of two.23 (57 ERA-) and a FIP of three.29 (82 FIP-). If I needed to predict it, I’d think about that the ERA will transfer nearer to the FIP because the season progresses however so long as each the ERA- and FIP- keep properly beneath 100, Atlanta is on monitor to be a lot improved within the pitching division. There’s loads of room to enhance on final season, which is after they completed with an ERA of 4.36 (103 ERA-) and a FIP of 4.20 (103 FIP-) and assuming that what we’re at present seeing from Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López is actual, that enchancment ought to be on its approach.

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In truth, I’d say that the perfect early story to date has been Bryce Elder’s obvious enchancment. Of course he’s not going to hold a 0.00 ERA over the course of this complete season and he’s going to have a tough day finally (all people has tough days — simply take a look at what occurred to Chris Sale final evening. Yikes!) however the truth that he’s carried his robust end-of-season kind from 2025 over into 2026 is definitely encouraging to see. Maybe there’s one thing to getting recommendation from Greg Maddux, himself.

The bullpen (exterior of Joel Payamps) has been chugging alongside simply tremendous as properly and so they’ve been helped by performances from Osvaldo Bido and Martín Pérez with the ability to go on the market and eat loads of innings when referred to as upon. Having lengthy aid like that might go a great distance in direction of preserving the remainder of the bullpen and serving to to make sure that we don’t see such a revolving door for this workers like we did in 2025 when the Braves set data for the sheer variety of guys they had been sending on the market to pitch.

Can issues get higher? Of course. Chris Sale nonetheless hasn’t actually gotten it going simply but, the fifth spot of the rotation continues to be in a little bit of flux and I already talked about Joel Payamps and his robust begin to the season proper now (a 20.16 xERA is jarring to see, early or not). Still, it’s encouraging and in addition lends a tiny little bit of credence to my private concept that good well being alone would give this pitching workers an enormous increase. As lengthy as guys proceed going on the market, tis pitching workers ought to be tremendous.

The workers has additionally benefited from getting some nice protection behind them as properly, which is all the time encouraging to see. Being robust to attain on (whether or not it’s by way of lockdown pitching or lights-out protection) can go a great distance in direction of making this group a critical candidate to play some vital baseball video games as soon as we get into September and October.

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Now we get into the offense, which is doing “fine” on paper however as everyone knows, “fine” has by no means ben the usual for the bats round right here. Through 11 video games to date, the Braves are hitting .249/.319/.414 as a unit with a .732 OPS, a .165 Isolated Power quantity and 106 wRC+. That quantity has them tied for tenth in all of baseball with the Pittsburgh Pirates — and it’s truthfully a testomony to how properly the remainder of the Pirates are hitting that they’ve gotten that top contemplating that former Braves DH Marcell Ozuna has began this season wanting like one of many worst hitters in baseball.

Still, as evidenced by the truth that the Braves have been scoring their runs in suits and begins, it’s one thing that might positively do with enchancment. They have a stroll charge of 9.2 p.c together with a strikeout charge of 19 p.c. It’s attention-grabbing as a result of the Dodgers have the same BB/Okay break up however the Dodgers are making up for it by completely crushing the ball to the tune of a .299/.366/.523 group slash line with .224 in Isolated Power and 149 group wRC+. If you’re going to have that sort of break up, you higher be mashing the ball each evening and that hasn’t fairly been the case for the Braves to date exterior of a few actually huge video games.

Drake Baldwin has gotten off to a wonderful begin and we’ve additionally seen some sudden contributions from guys like Marucio Dubón and Dominic Smith. One of these two guys was seemingly a glove-first man and the opposite is a man who got here on as a non-roster invitee and made the group, so getting stuff from them has been bonus. You’d additionally count on that the reigning NL Rookie of the Year could be crushing it as properly, as Baldwin is now taking strides to being acknowledged as one of many best-hitting catchers within the sport proper now.

The problem is that the remainder of Atlanta’s stars have been scuffling proper out of the gate. Matt Olson has been doing tremendous and Ozzie Albies has been faring okay, himself. The drawback proper now could be that Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Austin Riley have been wandering within the wilderness to start the season. Acuña is at present sitting on 51 wRC+ to date and that’s the excessive mark for this trio, which tells you simply how tough it’s been for these three guys to date.

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I’d think about that we’re going to see Acuña and Riley get going sooner or later however I feel we’re on the level now the place seeing Harris battle like that is regarding. Sure it’s early however we’ve additionally seen this earlier than from Harris relating to beginning the season off in poor trend. He’s definitely acquired simply as a lot potential to bounce again however the query is whether or not or not he’ll do it as rapidly as Acuña or Riley ought to bounce again. I don’t suppose that anyone round right here has the urge for food for seeing one other 70 or 80 video games of Harris attempting to determine it out on the plate whereas serving as a void of offense within the lineup. I hope he can get it collectively quickly but when I needed to say I used to be nervous about anyone within the lineup proper now, it’s Money Mike.

Now granted, we’re nonetheless solely speaking about 11 video games — a drop within the bucket relating to this lengthy, winding river of an everyday season. However, there’s already been some stuff that’s value keeping track of because the season progresses. Can Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López Mauricio Dubón and Dominic Smith maintain this up? When will the star gamers on this group get up? When will we see Didier Fuentes once more? Will getting their injured gamers again be a boon for this squad? Will the Braves win a couple of (1) sport in California this season? Do the brand new City Connects have an choice for powder blue pants? Okay, possibly the final query isn’t as urgent as the remaining but it surely’ll definitely be intriguing to see if and once we’ll get solutions to those early questions.