Stats to Know After the Iowa Hawkeyes’ Win Over Iowa State

Iowa’s win over the Iowa State Cyclones actually was not fairly. The Hawkeyes went into the matchup favored by as many factors as any sport within the Cy-Hawk sequence in a decade. However, as a substitute of the beating Iowa followers yearned for, we got yet one more slug fest by which we noticed each groups commerce punches right down to the wire.

But an unsightly win over your in-state rival remains to be a win and this one got here filled with numbers value chewing on. Here’s what stood out from the 16-13 win, what it means towards the historical past of this sequence and what it’d inform us about the place this group is headed.

The Kick, the Symmetry and the Series

Saturday marked the 73rd assembly all-time between the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones. While issues have been lopsided for a stretch a technology in the past, the final 9 conferences have now been determined by 10 or fewer factors. Of course, the final two have been gained by the Clones due to the precise foot of kicker Kyle Konrardy, who hit game-winners in Ames a season in the past and in Iowa City again in 2024.

Caden Buhr’s 42-yard discipline aim with 15 seconds left gave Iowa their narrowest margin of victory on this sequence for the reason that 18-17 victory in Ames again in 2019. While there have been some shut ones and the Cyclones have wanted game-winners in every of the final two conferences, the Hawkeyes haven’t gained through remaining drive discipline aim on this sequence within the fashionable period.

The game-winner offers Hawkeye followers some symmetry with the 16-13 remaining precisely matching the rating in Ames after Konrardy hit the sport winner in that one. Iowa is now 47-25 all-time towards the Cyclones.

Buhr’s kick gave Iowa its tenth win since 2015 on a discipline aim within the remaining 30 seconds of the fourth quarter. The earlier one: Drew Stevens, 44 yards vs. Michigan State final November.

The Cleanest Cy-Hawk You Will Ever See

While this factor has turn out to be an absolute slop-fest over time with restricted scoring and errors making the distinction, issues have been extremely clear on Saturday evening. Neither group recorded a sack and neither group turned the ball over.

The turnover battle has determined this sequence for 20 years, however for one evening, no person flinched. Iowa is 76-5 throughout all video games since 2012 when successful the turnover battle. The Cyclones have had a minimum of one turnover in El Assico yearly since…. 2006.

It’s additionally value calling out the penalties. New head coach Jimmy Rogers cited the flags postgame in his first loss with the Cyclones. They have been flagged 6 instances for 45 yards, however issues may have been a lot worse. Rogers’ Wazzou group was flagged a mean of seven instances per sport a season in the past and ranked 84th in penalty yardage per sport.

While they managed to flee Kinnick with out a single false begin, they actually performed with fireplace on a number of events.

The Balance Shift Nobody Noticed

Inside Kinnick and across the remark sections, there gave the impression to be loads of angst over the play-calling and what some perceived as a reversion to the basic KF fashion. We had all hoped Tim Lester would have full management of this offense and it appeared like maybe that wasn’t the case on Saturday evening with extra conservatism than we’d like in a sport the place Iowa was favored so closely.

But the numbers inform a barely totally different story. Iowa threw 30 passes and ran the ball 29 instances. In a one-score sport. In 26 video games throughout 2024-25, Lester’s offense threw as usually because it ran precisely twice and each got here whereas chasing losses.

Saturday marked simply the second time below Lester that Iowa out-threw its run whole and gained. The different? Week one towards Northern Illinois.

In 12 months one below Lester, Iowa 20 passes towards 38.5 runs per sport. In 2025, with a operating Gronowski below heart, the break up moved to 22 passes to 38.8 runs per sport. This 12 months? Iowa is averaging 35 passes to 33.5 runs per sport.

Part of the shift in sport two was necessity. Iowa’s operating sport was largely contained, ending with simply 93 yard as Kamari Moulton managed solely 57 on 15 carries with an extended of seven – Hank Brown’s nine-yard scramble was the longest run of the day.

That’s a pointy drop from Week 1, when Moulton rushed for a career-best 183 yards. He did depart Saturday early, although Ferentz mentioned postgame that Moulton “seemed fine,” and appeared to point on Tuesday that he’s questionable this weekend.

Hank Brown Settled the QB Job, Right

Iowa launched its official depth chart on Monday afternoon and Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski are listed with the vaunted “OR” on the beginning spot. That tracks with the “neck and neck” conjecture we heard all camp and the assertion this factor would bleed effectively into the season.

But it appears fairly disconnected from actuality after Saturday, the place Brown took each offensive snap for the Hawkeyes with Hecklinski watching from the sidelines. Brown completed 21-for-30 with 191 yards and rushed for 22 yards and Iowa’s lone landing.

While the shortage of touchdowns and total yardage don’t appear to counsel something is locked in, the 2 numbers to know there these:

100 – as in 100% of the snaps regardless of a sluggish begin on offense

70 – as in 70% completion proportion

That was Iowa’s first 70% sport on 30+ makes an attempt since Spencer Petras towards Northwestern in October 2022, and the primary in a win since Petras at Maryland in 2021. The Hawkeyes didn’t have a QB full 70%+ of his passes in any sport in 2020, 2023 or 2024.

Through two weeks Brown has accomplished 33 of fifty passes for a 66% completion proportion – a quantity that will be the best for the Hawkeyes over the past three seasons (48.9% in 2023, 62.7% in 2024, 62.9% in 2025).

Tony Diaz Is Tracking Toward History

The Boogeyman made his Iowa debut in fashion with 15 targets for 7 catches, 84 yards and a TD. It was essentially the most any WR had been focused in a debut efficiency within the KF period.

So it stood to purpose the Cyclones would do their greatest to take him away in week two and given the scale and athleticism Iowa State boasts at nook, that was maybe the expecation.

The actuality? Diaz did extra in week two than week one. He was focused 12 instances towards Iowa State, amassing 95 yards on eight catches.

Even extra notable, he hauled in a 56-yard bomb from Brown that was the longest go by the Hawkeyes since Kaleb Johnson’s 72-yard display landing towards Nebraska in November 2024.

Diaz is in elite firm in the case of Iowa WRs and he’s single-handidly altering the narrative on the passing sport. He is the one Hawkeye go catcher within the pass-charting period (relationship again to 2011) to have 12+ targets in back-to-back video games. His 15 catches by his first two video games are essentially the most by any Iowa WR since Kevonte Martin-Manley in 2014. The solely Hawkeyes with greater than his 179 receiving yards by two video games? Matt VandeBerg’s 228 yards in 2016 and Marvin McNutt’s 201 in 2011.

The tempo math is absurd for Iowa: 7.5 catches per sport works out to 90 over the common season. The program file is 82 (Kevin Kasper in 2000, matched by Marvin McNutt in 2011). No Iowa receiver has caught even 60 passes in a season since VandeBerg’s 65 in 2015.

Things will certainly decelerate because the defenses get harder, however the narrative on Iowa’s passing sport is being flipped in entrance of our eyes.

Defense, Betting and the Week Ahead

Iowa held Iowa State to 13 factors and one landing, permitting simply three factors within the second half. The Cyclones managed simply 4 first downs within the second half and went three-and-out on three of its remaining 5 possessions.

Iowa State did whole 138 speeding yards on 4.1 yards per try. That could also be a bit extra of a priority given the Cyclones’ struggles on the bottom towards SEMO. But Jaylen Raynor completed simply 10-of-19 for 117 yards by the air and Hank Brown truly out-rushed him on the evening.

Season-to-date, Iowa has allowed 13 factors and one offensive landing in two video games. They’re top-10 nationally in scoring protection, whole protection and passing protection and nonetheless sit 18th nationally in rush protection regardless of the week two efficiency.

We have been nervous a few step again in Phil’s group heading into the 12 months and whereas there have been some minor struggles in week two, they’re performing proper on par with prior seasons thus far.

That sturdy protection has led to 2 straight unders hitting whereas Iowa has break up on overlaying the unfold. This week, the Hawkeyes opened as a 41.5-points favourite in a sport with an over/below set at 48.5 whole factors in response to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Under head coach Kirk Ferentz, Iowa is now 2-10 towards the unfold when favored by greater than a landing towards Iowa State after failing to cowl final week. Against the Panthers, the Hawkeyes haven’t gained by lower than a landing aside from the notorious two blocked FG sport again in 2009.

While Iowa is 17-1 all-time towards UNI, they haven’t misplaced to the Panthers for the reason that flip of the twentieth century. They’ve solely gained by 40+ 3 times within the sequence. The first two came to visit a century in the past with a 69—0 thumping in 1900 and the widest margin of 95-0 coming in 1914. The largest moder-era differentialcame in a 66-0 drubbing again in 1997.

The Hawkeyes and Panthers are set to kick off at 3:05 pm CT on FS1.