NFL Week 2 betting information: Top performs for Sunday afternoon’s video games

Value is worth, regardless of the place — or how — you discover it. And that is what we’ll intention to do every week on this house: discovering betting worth.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen convey totally different views into how they strategy sports activities betting. Solak leans on his experience in participant analysis and the X’s and O’s to search out edges, whereas Walder depends on statistical fashions to select plus-expected worth bets, focusing primarily on protection. Bowen, a former NFL security, predicts optimistic matchups and sport winners from tape research and his understanding of the league.

From spreads and cash strains to totals and defensive participant props, worth may be discovered anyplace. Results can be tracked all through the season, with flat one-unit wagers for every listed wager. With that, let’s dive into our greatest bets, favourite defensive props and the highest sport to wager in Week 1.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and topic to vary.

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Bowen’s Game of the Week | Solak’s plays | Walder’s props

Bowen’s Game of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2.5, 46.5)
1 p.m. ET on CBS, Reliant Stadium, Houston

This line has fluctuated however at -2.5, I’m all-in. Would I really feel the identical at -3? I would not adore it, however I’d be keen to wager Houston at residence in a bounce-back sport after the Week 1 loss to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Let’s get into what to search for on either side of the ball, and we’ll end with some props bets to play.

When Houston has the ball: Houston spent the offseason engaged on its run sport, buying and selling for David Montgomery and including to the offensive entrance. And we noticed a devoted effort to run the soccer in Week 1, as Montgomery had 20 carries, with Woody Marks chipping in with 9. Now, was it tremendous environment friendly? No. Montgomery averaged simply 3.0 YPC, and the Texans registered a run block win charge of 74% (seventeenth within the league). But it is clear that Houston desires the run sport to be a foundational component of its offense. This can increase the passing alternatives for quarterback C.J. Stroud, who will see a Bengals protection that includes a rebuilt entrance anchored by defensive deal with Dexter Lawrence II and an underrated secondary that may combine each zone and man seems. I might search for play-action ideas (which mirror the run sport) to assault the Bengals’ two-deep zone shells (in-breakers to Nico Collins, if he performs) whereas additionally scheming up some shot performs. I actually assume Houston seems to regulate the tempo on offense on this one, however let’s keep watch over third downs as a result of the Texans have to beat man protection from the Bengals there.

When Cincinnati has the ball: I need to see this matchup towards the Texans’ protection. Though the Bengals regarded flat in a Week 1 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Joe Burrow completed with 254 yards passing, and Ja’Marr Chase had two receptions for 12 yards), they create battle due to scheme and expertise. The Texans have been a zone-heavy protection beneath DeMeco Ryans, however they’ll combine in man protection (based mostly on sport conditions), which creates must-see TV when corners Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter match towards Chase and Tee Higgins. Tight finish Mike Gesicki (78 yards receiving in Week 1) may discover room to function towards Houston’s split-safety and single-high zone schemes to assault the voids there. But, my predominant query is will the Bengals’ offensive line hold the pocket agency for Burrow and generate motion up entrance within the run sport? The Bengals held a move block win charge of 53.8% in Week 1 towards the Bucs (thirteenth within the league), whereas Chase Brown averaged solely 3.5 YPC. It’s a unique matchup this week towards Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Burrow might want to hit some explosive play throws to win this one.

Leans: Texans -2.5 (-118), Texans moneyline (-142), Over 46.5 (-105)

Now, let’s get to some prop bets …

Ja’Marr Chase receptions OVER 6.5 (-109)

I count on a devoted effort to get Chase the ball after he caught solely two of 4 targets within the Week 1 win over the Bucs — screens, unders and quicks that cater to Chase’s explosive catch-and-run capacity. Look for Chase to be concerned early on this sport plan.

Mike Gesicki anytime TD (+280)

Gesicki caught a Week 1 landing on a schemed throw to beat man protection. Plus, the Bengals can arrange Gesicki on zone beaters within the excessive crimson zone (seams, corners) to counter the Houston defensive tendencies.

Chase Brown receiving yards OVER 20.5 (-113)

Brown caught 5 of six targets for 22 yards final week versus Tampa, and the display sport/swing routes could possibly be an early reply to counter the Texans’ move rush.

Solak’s performs

play

How will the Ravens’ WR accidents IMPACT Lamar Jackson?

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-112) at New York Jets

I’m grabbing a fast buy-low spot on the Packers, who have been significantly better Sunday than the field rating would point out. The Minnesota Vikings scored 14 late factors on defensive takeaways deep in Green Bay territory of their 39-22 victory. But the Packers had a greater success charge (38.8%) than the Vikings (34.5%) and struggled solely in situational spots. They have been 3-for-12 on third down. On 4 crimson zone journeys, they scored just one landing and one subject objective. Those are the little execution issues that damage a field rating.

Going from dealing with a Brian Flores-coached Vikings protection to the Jets ought to make issues far simpler. Matt LaFleur has expertise dealing with Aaron Glenn from when Glenn was the defensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions and usually has discovered success (46% offensive success charge, 0.04 EPA per play, 2.2 factors per drive).

I considered taking the Packers’ staff whole, at present priced at 23.5 and juiced -135 to the over. I believe the Jets’ offense can be a practical group this season, however they should run the ball and play clock management to win video games towards superior opponents — and which may restrict the Packers’ whole drives. As such, I’ll go as a substitute for the full-game unfold at -3.5. I might play this no additional than -120.

Tennessee Titans staff whole UNDER 15.5 (-105)

The Titans’ offensive operation was the worst I noticed in Week 1: play designs that have been lifeless within the water, offensive linemen unsure of their assignments, simple drops and unhealthy routes from receivers and poor accuracy and timing from Cam Ward at quarterback. It’s robust to search out something to hold their hat on from a 23-10 loss to the Jets.

It’s price remarking that Brian Daboll’s offenses have been poor in Week 1 — six, six and and nil factors within the three seasons earlier — after which stronger in Week 2. But towards this Philadelphia Eagles protection, it is robust to have a lot religion. Philadelphia’s defensive entrance regarded as deep and disruptive as ever towards a mean Washington Commanders entrance, and the Titans are comfortably one of many eight worst strains in soccer. Though defensive again Cooper DeJean was banged up within the Week 1 sport and sat out observe Wednesday, the Eagles’ exterior nook duo of Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen nonetheless poses an enormous downside for the Titans’ capacity to create explosive performs by way of the air.

The expertise distinction right here feels merely insurmountable. The Titans will want defensive takeaways or massive particular groups outputs to get into scoring vary. I do not see them getting sufficient. I might play this as much as -115.

New England Patriots -5.5 (-105) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The previous 4 defenses the Patriots have confronted are as follows: Seattle Seahawks (Week 1), Seahawks (Super Bowl), Denver Broncos (AFC Championship Game), Houston Texans (AFC divisional spherical). Even their wild-card opponent had a near-elite protection (Los Angeles Chargers). We are lastly at a degree at which we will purchase low on the Patriots towards an imperfect protection.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ protection was hardly examined in Week 1 towards the Cooper Rush-led Atlanta Falcons. Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offense — particularly with TreVeyon Henderson getting back from a proper ankle harm — signify a far stiffer take a look at. Even although extensive receiver A.J. Brown is on injured reserve due to an ankle harm, the Patriots have had a protracted week since final Wednesday to arrange for his absence. Their extensive receiver room, that includes Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins, is lots deep sufficient.

On the opposite aspect of the ball, Pittsburgh’s offense was dreadful towards a Falcons protection that was low in my energy rankings to begin the season. The Steelers’ 31.4% success charge was the worst of all offenses in Week 1, and their 4.1 yards per play was fourth worst. There have been some drops and procedural points that made the efficiency look worse than it was, nevertheless it wasn’t outing. I just like the Patriots’ corners and their capacity to press Pittsburgh’s receivers, forcing Aaron Rodgers into low-percentage prayers whereas the elite defensive deal with duo of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore generate TFLs and sacks.

This quantity has been rising all through the week. I would not play -5.5 at something previous -110.

Lamar Jackson dashing yards UNDER 39.5 (-112)

Jackson’s dashing beneath was a standard wager for us all through final season, when it was clear that the Ravens’ quarterback was not wholesome. He is wholesome this season, as 16-yard and 19-yard scrambles in Week 1 towards the Indianapolis Colts point out. Jackson ended the day with 40 dashing yards on seven carries (after dropping three yards on three kneels).

New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle put Jackson beneath heart greater than Todd Monken and Greg Roman had beforehand. Under-center alignments restrict the chance for designed QB run performs, like read-options. Jackson’s lone designed carry towards the Colts was a second-and-goal play from the 5-yard line. Though Jackson remains to be harmful on a scramble, if he is solely going to get designed carries in short-yardage or goal-line conditions, his potential for high-yardage days can be capped.

I count on the New Orleans Saints and Brandon Staley’s zone-heavy protection to maintain significantly better eyes on Jackson within the scramble drill than the Colts’ man-heavy strategy afforded. I’ll even be on the lookout for an beneath on Jackson’s longest rush when that line posts, however I’d take this quantity all the way down to 37.5.

KC Concepcion receiving yards OVER 31.5 (-111)

Let’s posit quite safely that the Cleveland Browns can be in trailing sport scripts for many of their contests towards practical groups. While trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars mightily in Week 1, Concepcion ran solely 17 routes, beneath that of fellow rookie Denzel Boston (26) and veteran Jerry Jeudy (22). But Concepcion was focused on 29.4% of his routes, properly above Jeudy and Boston’s numbers. He acquired simple targets too — a display, a checkdown — that create dependable alternative. But 47.1% of his routes went vertical — once more, increased than Boston or Jeudy — which signifies the Browns need to get him extra alternative downfield. I count on Concpecion’s function to solely develop within the offense week over week, and I like his potential each for high-volume YAC days and massive downfield splashes.

Aaron Jones Sr. dashing makes an attempt OVER 15.5 (-101)

The Minnesota Vikings’ offense has hit an instantaneous state of disarray with the concussion to QB Kyler Murray (questionable for Week 2) and the injured reserve stint for RB Jordan Mason (thumb). If Murray cannot go and Carson Wentz performs, I count on the Vikings to be pretty run-heavy to shorten the sport and hold the Chicago Bears offense on the opposing sideline. Without Mason, which means loads of carries for Jones.

If Murray can go, I nonetheless assume we’ll see the Vikings deploy the new-look working sport they have been enthusiastic about all offseason, but barely acquired to make the most of given Murray’s early harm in Week 1. Veteran DeeJay Dallas and rookie Demond Claiborne are each rostered behind Jones, nevertheless it’s onerous to think about both biting that a lot into Jones’ share of carries; Dallas is a basic third-down again, and Claiborne was inactive in Week 1. I’ll be seeking to take Jones’ dashing yards as much as some alts (70+ and 80+) if Murray is confirmed out earlier than kickoff.

Walder’s prop bets

Note: More defensive props can be added as odds grow to be accessible

Defensive performs

Chicago Bears D/ST anytime landing (+750)

One medium good sport from Carson Wentz mustn’t make us neglect about the truth that he’s nonetheless Carson Wentz, a QB lots vulnerable to errors. Certainly my mannequin hasn’t, which is one purpose why it likes Chicago’s protection — which might be not a fantastic unit general — or its particular groups’ possibilities to return a landing. The indisputable fact that the Bears have a prolific offense and usually tend to be within the lead on this sport — thus forcing the Minnesota Vikings to place the ball in Wentz’s palms — helps. I’d wager this all the way down to +700.

Carolina Panthers D/ST anytime landing (+700)

As of this writing, we do not know who the Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback can be Sunday. Guess what? They’re all nice choices … for the Panthers’ protection. We’re betting on a defensive or particular groups rating towards:

1. A banged-up Cooper Rush or

2. A banged-up Tua Tagovailoa or

3. Michael Penix Jr., in his first begin again after ACL surgical procedure, or

4. Jack Strand

No matter what we consider the Panthers’ protection, we must always take this wager at +700. I might wager it all the way down to +640.

Offensive performs

Aaron Rodgers move makes an attempt UNDER 35.5 (-124)

That the Pittsburgh Steelers have been the No. 1 staff in move charge over expectation in Week 1, per NFL Next Gen Stats, was arguably extra of an upset than the Los Angeles Chargers dropping to the Arizona Cardinals. Will it proceed? I’m keen to wager it will not, not less than for this week. Mike McCarthy has had each pass-leaning and run-leaning groups previously, however he additionally does not have a very good quarterback proper now, so it hardly appears to make sense that they’d sustain the sample. That’s why I’m agreeing with my move makes an attempt mannequin, which thinks this line is just too excessive for Rodgers, even heading right into a sport during which the Steelers are underdogs and must sustain with the New England Patriots’ offense. I might wager this all the way down to -150.

Rhamondre Stevenson receptions OVER 2.5 (-153)

The complete league ran zone protection at the next charge in Week 1 than in any season in our dataset (since 2017), however no staff epitomized that greater than the Steelers. Under coordinator Patrick Graham, the Steelers ran zone 89% of the time. Why does that matter for this wager? Since 2023, working backs have caught passes on man-coverage performs 8% of the time however 15% of the time towards zone. That large disparity performs into our palms right here with Stevenson dealing with the Steelers. I opted for the conservative possibility at over 2.5, however I do not thoughts betting the longer-odds alts on this, both.

Malik Willis 24+ completions (+910)

I believed there was an opportunity the Miami Dolphins would go run-heavy to the intense with their offense, however in Week 1 it was extra of a traditional cut up than I used to be anticipating. Malik Willis threw 27 passes, and the Dolphins ranked eleventh in move charge over anticipated. My makes an attempt mannequin sees worth within the excessive tail end result right here, and I do not assume it is that onerous to think about. If the Dolphins fall approach behind on this sport — and I believe they’ll towards the 49ers — they’re going to be compelled to move and move and move. And there additionally may be loads of brief throws accessible for Willis to make. I like this lengthy shot.