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Match Thirty-One: Florida Panthers (21-11-2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (18-10-2)
Time: 5:00 PM EST
Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa
Broadcast/Streaming/Radio: FDSNSUN, Scripps, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -105
If the Tampa Bay Lightning were poised to play two matches before heading into an enjoyable extended holiday break, at least they will face the Florida Panthers. There’s minimal chance that the players (or coaching staff) are overlooking the next pair of games while plotting their holiday feasts. Tonight’s contest marks the first of four encounters between the Lightning and their in-state foes as they aim to seek a bit of retribution for last year’s playoff first-round exit.
The Bolts enter this match showcasing some of their finest hockey of the season. With four consecutive wins and six out of the last seven, the Lightning’s offense has been thriving, netting 34 goals across their last seven games, while allowing only 13 on defense. Admittedly, not all adversaries have been top-tier competition, but one can only compete against the scheduled opponents, and the Lightning are effectively accomplishing their goal of winning matches.
During this recent surge, Brayden Point (17 points), Nikita Kucherov (15 points), and Jake Guentzel (8 goals) have been performing well, alongside contributions from Brandon Hagel (8 points), Anthony Cirelli (5 points), and Nick Paul (4 points). Except for Zemgus Girgensons and Steven Santini (who has only played a single game), everyone else has registered points in the last seven matches. Before you criticize Girgensons too harshly, it’s important to note that he leads the team with 18 hits and has a 60% win rate in face-offs—a commendable feat for a fourth-liner, I mean, a member of one of the Lightning’s four lines.
As far as special teams go, the Lightning are operating at a 42.1% success rate on their power plays while successfully defending against 88.2% of opponents’ power plays. Again, this is commendable. A couple of 8-goal performances have raised their average to 4.86 per game (the highest in the league during this period) while their 1.86 goals-against ranks second in the league. Despite facing some injuries, this represents near-peak form for the Bolts.
Now, they are set to face the reigning champions.
The champions have secured 21 victories out of their 34 contests thus far, but it’s been an unusual year for them. In their last two games, they’ve conceded only two total goals, while 19 were allowed in their prior four games. Offensively, they’ve performed well with an average of 3.49 goals per 60 minutes (5th in the league), which has been necessary to compensate for their 3.08 goals allowed per 60 minutes, ranking 22nd in the league.
Even though they are conceding a significant number of actual goals on the ice, the Panthers’ expected goals against stands at a respectable 2.67, suggesting their goaltending might not be up to par this season. A brief glance at Evolving Hockey’s statistics indicates that the goalie duo of Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight haven’t quite delivered as expected. Bobrovsky holds an impressive 16-6-1 record but has a subpar .896 SV% along with a -2.9 GSAx for the season. Knight has recorded a 5-5-1 record, a .890 SV%, and a -2.53 GSAx.
On the offensive side, the usual suspects are performing as expected. Sam Reinhart didn’t land a significant free-agent deal and begin indulging in espresso martinis on South Beach instead of training, as he currently leads the Panthers with 20 goals. Matthew Tkachuk has amassed 34 points, including 13 goals, while Sam Bennett and Sasha Barkov each boast double-digit goal counts.
The Lightning are in for a challenge tonight; although they should receive quality scoring chances, they must also maintain responsibility in their defensive zone to avoid devolving into a high-scoring, fast-paced style of play that they may not be equipped for.
Proposed Lines
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Geekie
Gage Goncalves – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mikey Eyssimont
Defense:
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltenders:
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johansson
Florida Panthers
Forwards:
Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Sam Reinhart
Evan Rodrigues – Sam Bennett – Mackie Samoskevich
A.J. Greer – Tomas Nosek – Jonah Gadkovich
Defense:
Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola – Dmitry Kulikov
Uvis Balnskis – Nate Schmidt
Goaltenders:
Sergei Bobrovsky
Spencer Knight
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