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This is my favorite season of the year at Digital Trends. Each time a year concludes, I love to play oracle and forecast what will transpire in the realm of video games the upcoming year. I’ve conducted this series for several years now and often find that my predictions are remarkably accurate by December. That’s always a gratifying realization as I look back on the lengthy year. Conversely, there are times when I am so comically mistaken that I end the year with a hearty laugh.
This year, it’s the latter.
In January, I made four forecasts for 2024 in gaming. They were audacious speculations regarding the positions of Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo by the year’s conclusion — and many of them were preposterously incorrect. To maintain my integrity, I have examined those forecasts here and identified exactly where I was mistaken (and what I was technically correct about, as well). If nothing else, I hope this serves as a vital lesson for the audience: The video game sector is exceedingly unpredictable. Although it may seem foreseeable at times, unexpected announcements or surprise successes can transform a year in an instant. That’s precisely what occurred in 2024.
The major game cycle drastically slows down
The speculation: Although 2023 was a monumental year for major franchises, 2024 would witness a considerable deceleration for high-budget games. There were ample reasons to believe this at that time. We had just experienced an avalanche of significant releases that had been anticipated for years, from The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom to Starfield. With Grand Theft Auto 6 and Monster Hunter Wilds already confirmed for 2025, there weren’t many major titles left slated for 2024 aside from Final Fantasy VII Rebirth. That appeared to suggest a more moderate year for AAA titles.
What transpired: While discussions will always arise regarding the quality of a year in gaming, I believe no one would contest the frequency of major releases in 2024 in contrast to 2023. It was somewhat a less eventful year overall in terms of highly promoted launches. Although we still received a few of those thanks to Indiana Jones and the Great Circle and Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, significant studios like Nintendo utilized 2024 as a chance to experiment with mid-tier games instead.
Part of what contributed to the feeling of 2024 being light for AAA was the year’s slew of major disappointments. Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League began the year with a flop, Star Wars Outlaws fell short of expectations, and Concord’s launch was so disastrous that Sony shut down the entire game within weeks. These were all titles anticipated to define the year for fans of mainstream blockbusters. Their lackluster performance made 2024 seem less impactful at an initial glance.
However, that doesn’t imply it was a poor year for gaming; in fact, it was one of the best in recent history. It was an exceptional year for both RPGs and indie titles, which filled the gap left by the absence of spectacular Western releases. Sony also delivered numerous surprises, including what turned out to be this year’s Game of the Year, Astro Bot. Titles like Palworld and Black Myth: Wukong also emerged as global favorites. 2024 demonstrated that we don’t necessarily require Mario or Zelda for a remarkable year (although, unexpectedly, we did receive those as well).
Right or wrong? Right.
Nintendo’s upcoming console takes the spotlight
The speculation: As we entered 2024, we regarded the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 as a guaranteed event. Our assumption wasn’t even that it would debut as an instant hit. We even anticipated that we might be discussing titles like Mario Kart 9 come Game of the Year voting! All of this was accompanied by the understanding that the Switch 2 could be a surprising failure if it did not sufficiently differentiate itself from its predecessor. Regardless, we expected it would be the most significant news story of 2024.
What transpired: Alright, let’s be clear.
Who among us did not believe that the Nintendo Switch 2 would debut in 2024? The release timeframe had been speculated for what felt like a full year, supported by claims that Nintendo had started showing the console to developers during Gamescom 2023. Not to mention that Nintendo had virtually no titles announced for the latter half of 2024, which fueled the widespread assumption that it was reserving something substantial for the Switch 2’s launch.
None of that turned out to be true. While Nintendo did confirm the existence of the Switch 2, it quickly became evident that the console would not be available until 2025. Nintendo was ready for that delay, launching a flurry of unexpected titles that provided the current Switch with an astonishingly busy holiday season. With speculation rising, the console’s release feels imminent, but our 2024 forecast was a bit premature.
I’m going to take a little credit here. My exact phrase was that the Switch 2 would “take center stage” in 2024. One could contend that indeed occurred.
Two speculations were at the forefront throughout the year, ranging from a bogus release date announcement in January to a recent Reddit leak that hinted at its hall effect joysticks. The console undoubtedly had some spotlight this year, but I’ll concede defeat on this occasion.
Correct or incorrect? Incorrect.
PlayStation falters, Xbox thrives
The forecast: We anticipated PlayStation and Xbox would conclude 2024 in starkly different standings based on our pre-existing knowledge. At that moment, we were largely unaware of PlayStation’s 2024 roster, but recognized that the platform would have a flagship title such as Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 to support its holiday traffic. Given an untested live service approach that was set to emerge, we presumed the PS5 could be in for a challenging year. Conversely, we had high expectations for Xbox, largely due to a packed release schedule, from Hellblade 2 to Stalker 2. Essentially, the forecast suggested a reversal of fortunes between the systems.
What transpired: This scenario is yet another instance that could be dissected in numerous ways to yield vastly different outcomes. One could certainly argue that the prediction was accurate depending on how the data was interpreted. Sony faced the most significant failure of the year with Concord, which effectively derailed its aspirations for live services. The PS5 Pro could have rejuvenated Sony, but its steep price relegated it to niche appeal. In contrast, Xbox achieved major triumphs with titles such as Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, and others. If I were attempting to safeguard my pride, I’d just say I was right and leave it at that.
However, I can’t do that with a clear conscience. Both consoles had relatively successful years overall, despite encountering considerable challenges. PlayStation titles dominated 2024, from the Game of the Year-winning Astro Bot to the live service blockbuster Helldivers 2. Final Fantasy VII Rebirth and Silent Hill 2 emerged as outstanding third-party exclusives, while Stellar Blade and Black Myth: Wukong achieved tremendous success through international developers. It may have been the best year for the PS5 since its debut, even with the setback of Concord.
I can’t claim that Xbox fell by comparison, but it did experience an inconsistent year. Avowed was pushed back to 2025, Hellblade 2 did not achieve the critical acclaim many anticipated, and several holiday releases suffered from problematic launches. Most notably, a wave of layoffs at Xbox signified a tumultuous start to 2024. In one instance, the layoffs caused the temporary closure of Hi-Fi Rush developer Tango Gameworks (which has since been acquired by Krafton and reestablished). Additionally, Xbox Game Pass faced a complicated price increase that left gamers frustrated. Without Call of Duty and Indiana Jones, it could have been a catastrophic year, yet those two titles, along with a stellar summer showcase, managed to keep it afloat.
Correct or incorrect? Incorrect.
Summer Game Fest claims E3’s spot
The forecast: With E3 officially finished, Geoff Keighley’s Summer Game Fest was set to establish itself as the prime event in the gaming world. While that had already been somewhat true, the expectation was for the event to achieve a more mainstream moment that matched the stature of E3. We anticipated Keighley to go all-out for both his live stream and his exclusive Play Days demo event open to press and creators each year, proclaiming 2024 as the year Summer Game Fest became a household name.
What transpired: I’ll admit this was a gentler prediction when reflecting back. Naturally, Summer Game Fest would seize E3’s position; E3 was defunct and there was no rivalry! I’m sure I just wanted to set myself up for an easy success that wouldn’t be embarrassing, so I’ll be a bit tough on myself here even if I was technically correct.
Correct or incorrect? Let’s label it a neutral outcome.
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