The Lookout Landing 2026 Hope/Cope-ometer: 28 Video games Left

Can you consider we even get to consider one thing like this?

I don’t keep in mind after I gave up hope for the primary time, however I’ll inform you I used to be fairly shut on July twenty ninth, a 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. That recreation marked the primary day that FanGraphs had the Mariners playoff odds beneath 50%. Their file was 53-56.

It definitely was earlier than the Mariners low-water mark this season. On August eleventh, 3 days after the membership’s fiftieth anniversary fanfare and pageantry (one other embarrassing loss), Seattle misplaced to the New York Yankees 4-1, dropping their file to 56-64. FanGraphs had their playoff odds at 23.9%.

They misplaced the subsequent day, too. Then, over their subsequent 13 video games, they gained 8 video games and three collection (and did it with a complete run differential of -29) whereas Houston went 4-7 and Texas went 6-7. Cal Raleigh went and hit 4 residence runs in two nights, and I discovered myself taking a look at squiggly strains with hope in my coronary heart once more, like an fool.

As of this morning, with 28 video games left to play, Seattle is 64-70, 2 video games behind Texas and a pair of.5 video games behind Houston within the division, 4 video games behind Cleveland for the third wild card spot (lol) and have playoff odds of 42.1%.

Mariners followers’ hearts have traditionally sturdy when introduced with causes to hope, however the previous few years of sporadically good baseball might have melted a few of our resolve. One merely should marvel: can this group do it?

The employees weighed in on their private Hope/Cope-ometer placement, with the dimensions beneath for reference, and our composite remaining, official hope rating on the finish. -NV

There’s a mantra in scouting, on the 20-80 scale, {that a} grade of 65 is utter cowardice. With a 50 as huge league common, most gamers will see their expertise fall between a 40-60. Standard deviations, bell curves, issues of that nature. So whenever you see one thing extra spectacular than most, try to be assured. The Mariners are taking part in like they had been anticipated to most nights, they’ve a powerful setup for the house stretch, and the groups they’re chasing are donkeys in dumpsters. More to the purpose, if the Mariners are to make the playoffs, it’s going to solely be attainable by taking part in at a caliber befitting of a playoff working membership.

When I take longtime former roommate and CTA (licensed troublemaking asshole) corgi, Cedar, on walks, we solely ever stroll peacefully and in unison for a handful of minutes. The remainder of the time is spent with him yanking repeatedly on the leash to get nearer to whomever or no matter he’s screaming at, or dragging him bodily up hills (no corgis had been really harmed on any of those walks) as a result of he’s petulant in regards to the path we’ve gone/the very fact I yelled at him about hollering at an historical Labrador/how I disadvantaged him of sufficient sniffing time/any myriad of different wrongdoings. This is the closest comparability I could make for this season to one thing I’ve actively skilled. I think about it’s additionally not dissimilar to whenever you bungee bounce off a bridge and try this painful-looking ricochet up and down a number of occasions resulting from stated bungee.

All that to say, I’m a 6. Please know that previous to attending Tuesday’s recreation, I had this as a 4. (Oh god, there comes the bottom.) Maybe I’ll change it again once more earlier than it really pubs. (Oh wait, now we’re hovering again as much as the sky.)

It feels as if we dwell in a pessimistic world at occasions. Call it the brand new media setting, name it the rise of social media, name it the truth of being a Mariners fan, however no matter what’s in charge, I can’t say that watching this season of Mariners Baseball has usually been an train in escapism, or has made me really feel, like, higher than I did earlier than turning on the sport. It’s been comfortable, although! Bad Mariners baseball appears like residence, an unlucky & revealing wound on my/our collective psyche.

Even extra unlucky, Cal Raleigh hit 4 residence runs within the final two days (as I write this), George Kirby appears classic, Canzone is out of platoon jail, so goddamnit, I’m beginning to consider within the Seattle Mariners. They don’t should do a lot over this remaining stretch to beat out Houston and Texas and put the West again within the AL West. I feel they’ll do it. The Mariners would possibly win each collection the remainder of the season with a median run differential of minus-8 per set, and win the AL West.

Hope Rating: 7/10. I feel they make a good run and lose in 5 within the ALDS.

In scouting they name a forty five a coward’s grade: you don’t assume the prospect is unhealthy, precisely, however you don’t assume they’re good, both; some scouting departments assume any grade that ends in a 5 is cowardly, making an attempt to separate the distinction between projections (“fringe-average” somewhat than simply “average” or “below average”). Typical Kate habits, sure, why choose one factor when can choose two.

I absolutely acknowledge {that a} 5/10 is a coward’s grade to placed on the previous Hope-o-meter, resting precisely within the center. But that’s not my fault, that’s the fault of the 2026 Seattle Mariners, who’ve Lucy-and-the-footballed me all 12 months, seeming to vow to show issues round solely to sink again down within the offensive doldrums. I’m on the file as having complained about this group’s lack of consistency all season, and whereas sometimes that helps them – like bouncing again for a win after getting the stuffing kicked out of them the night time earlier than – it additionally makes it arduous to venture this group placing collectively any form of run going ahead, which is what it will take for them to make it to the playoffs. But since nobody appears to have any curiosity in profitable the AL West, I can’t go a lot beneath 45 – and hey, Emerson Hancock was a forty five grade as a prospect, so perhaps there’s hope but.

I’ve by no means had an curiosity in rooting for a super-team. Yes, comfy wins are good, and I would love the Mariners to win greater than they lose. Someday I wish to see that culminate in a World Series win. But… I don’t want it. What I want is for baseball to be enjoyable, for it to really feel just like the group a minimum of has an opportunity. When that likelihood has been slim, the chances stacked towards them? Those have been my favourite moments of Mariners success. When the deck appears stacked towards a gritty group of grinders, and the arduous effort, the center, wins the day.

Admittedly, due to my very own life points placing me on the IL of baseball fandom, I didn’t watch as a lot of the primary half of the season as I’d have favored. My first recap of the 12 months was solely simply over every week in the past, recreation three towards the Houston Astros. Even from a distance I may inform the primary half of the season was a little bit of a depressing slog for all of these concerned. Whether due to that or regardless of it, after re-engaging with following the group the final a number of weeks, I even have a whole lot of hope for them trending upward by the remainder of the season. That’s as a result of, usually for higher and typically for absolutely the, really, terribly, the worst, the group has been enjoyable in that point. The remaining twilight of the season grows dimmer, however the group genuinely appears like it’s beginning to play like they understand it. It’s straightforward to and is commonly stated as a Mariners fan that it will be identical to the group to make the playoffs, or win all of it, in probably the most weird and probably anxious method attainable. Usually, it rings of grief; the commonest method it’s stated is to inject acceptance, or perhaps it’s bargaining. I select to embrace it. This group is bizarre, and kinda damaged… and that’s the place they thrive. The complete AL West is damaged, certain… however we have now residence subject benefit.

It’s fairly wild we’re having the playoff dialog in any respect contemplating that is most likely the worst vibes season since…2019? There’s completely zero cause that the Mariners deserve to make the playoffs, and but right here we’re.

It’s fairly upsetting to contemplate the AL West would possibly ship a beneath .500 group to the playoffs. One time after I was in a highschool musical competitors, the judges dominated that no one was adequate to win. They straight up refused to call a winner. Can we not try this right here? Because even when this Mariners group technically has an excellent shot to make it, I’m unsure I would like them representing the group or division on this capability.

I exaggerate, after all. I’d be thrilled in the event that they gained the division even when it felt icky. And actually, with how they’ve been taking part in during the last week (video games began by Bryce Miller however), and taking a look at their September schedule…I dunno, guys! Besides, that is the hope rating, not the worthiness rating. There’s sufficient to legitimately hope for with a month to go.

During the fiftieth anniversary golden turd jubilee weekend the place the Mariners bought swept by the Rays, I used to be lastly prepared to surrender on any playoff hopes for this group. Even with the principally gentle September schedule, they only appeared far too harm and principally listless to think about them turning it round. Randy and Cole Young can not will this offense to the postseason by themselves, though Randy is making an attempt his damnedest.

But given their latest week-ish stretch of a lot improved play (blowouts apart), Kade Anderson’s wonderful debut, J.P. getting back from the IL, Julio warming up, and Cal’s 4 dingers in 2 video games…effectively…

My playoff mustache is in impact and I’m holding hope alive till they’re lifeless. Go Mariners.

James:
If you requested me to charge my hope earlier than the beginning of the Cubs collection, I most likely would’ve landed someplace between 4 and 5. Though I’m cautious to leap to any conclusions primarily based on only some video games, I do really feel just like the final a number of days have helped me higher envision the September run that might be mandatory for the Mariners. I feel many individuals, myself included, had been starting to just accept 2026 as a misplaced season for Cal; if a late-season turnaround continues to materialize, then that modifications the outlook fairly a bit for my part.

After subsequent Wednesday, the remaining video games are as follows: 14 video games towards the unhealthy groups in one of many worst divisions in baseball historical past, 5 video games towards your equally mediocre counterparts in one of many worst divisions in baseball historical past, and three video games towards the Colorado Rockies. As lengthy because the Mariners don’t dig a a lot deeper gap within the coming week — and the way in which they’ve performed in latest days has helped quell that concern — their season will in the end come right down to divisional video games. They are already 20-13 in such video games this 12 months and have held the very best intradivision file within the AL West every of the previous three seasons. I’d argue in addition they have probably the most upside of the contenders. While they aren’t out of the woods but and possibly enter September trailing, it appears extra seemingly now than a few weeks in the past that the division title will stay inside attain within the remaining month.

My head appears at how badly this group has performed regardless of its expertise and potential and tells me they’re extra prone to miss the playoffs than make them. But it doesn’t matter what I assume, I can’t escape how I really feel when Julio’s bat connects with the ball. Playoff odds are over at FanGraphs. You requested for a hope ranking, and hope lives within the coronary heart.

I don’t assume the Mariners are good at hitting, pitching, fielding, or base working, and I feel they deserve their place at six video games beneath .500. But they’ve the weakest energy of schedule remaining, based on FanGraphs. That additionally implies their schedule up to now has been somewhat troublesome. Over the previous few weeks, they’ve performed the very best, second greatest, third greatest, fifth greatest, sixth greatest and seventh greatest groups within the majors – just about each group that figures to matter in October. Maybe we’ll really feel totally different about this roster after they get an opportunity to beat up on some backside dwellers. The snarky Mariners-fan in me needs to say, “maybe we’ll feel much, much worse.” But I form of don’t assume so. I feel they’ll end out the 12 months sturdy and win the division. And from there, who is aware of.
Hope ranking: 7/10

Composite LL Staff Hope Barometer: 6.5/10

You heard it right here first: The Looking Landing employees believes the Mariners are going to make the playoffs. We’re coping right here, of us. Are you?