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We may experience a New Year’s aurora spectacle, with northern lights possibly observable even in mid-latitude areas tonight and tomorrow (Dec. 30 to Dec. 31).
Owing to an approaching solar storm, identified as a coronal mass ejection (CME), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm alert for Dec. 31.
This is excellent news for those keen to witness the northern lights, as the forecasted geomagnetic storm may ignite auroras as far south as Illinois and Oregon (approximately 50° latitude).
What’s behind this? A CME — a massive burst of plasma and magnetic fields — was propelled into space by the sun on Dec. 29, placing Earth in direct alignment. This CME isn’t isolated; numerous other eruptions in recent days have also resulted in Earth-directed outbursts which are predicted to induce potent geomagnetic storm conditions on Dec. 31, as noted by Solar Astrophysicist Ryan French.
“The Sun has truly increased its activity over the past few days, producing frequent solar flares, including a powerful X-class event!” French commented in a post on X. “A number of these flares resulted in Earth-directed outbursts, expected to instigate a strong geomagnetic storm (inducing aurora) on the 31st!” French elaborated.
The Sun has really stepped up over the past few days, with frequent solar flares including a strong X-class event! A selection of these flares produced Earth-directed eruptions, expected to trigger a strong geomagnetic storm (bringing aurora) on the 31st! #spaceweather pic.twitter.com/oSiBZWAM4hDecember 29, 2024
When CMEs impact Earth’s magnetosphere, they introduce electrically charged particles known as ions that interact with Earth’s magnetic field. These interactions can trigger geomagnetic storms. During such storms, ions collide with atmospheric gases, releasing energy that appears as light. This results in the breathtaking displays recognized as the northern lights, or aurora borealis, in the Northern Hemisphere, and the southern lights, or aurora australis, in the Southern Hemisphere.
NOAA categorizes geomagnetic storms on a G-scale, ranking their intensity from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). The recent geomagnetic storm alert issued by NOAA is designated as a G3, signifying robust storm conditions.
When will the geomagnetic storm happen?
Present forecasts suggest that the peak period of activity (G1 to G3 conditions) will occur from 10 p.m. EST on Dec. 30 to 10 a.m. EST on Dec. 31 (0300 GMT to 1500 GMT on Dec. 31). An additional wave of activity is anticipated between 4:00 p.m. EST (2100 GMT) on Dec. 31 and 10:00 p.m. EST (0300 GMT on Jan. 1), with G1 conditions expected. Explore NOAA’s 3-day forecast for the most up-to-date timings — note that times are provided in UT.
Remember that space weather, similar to terrestrial weather, can be erratic and challenging to predict. While geomagnetic storm alerts at this magnitude are infrequent, they can sometimes result in minimal activity.
If you’re keen on tracking space weather and want to know when and where to view auroras, consider downloading a space weather app that offers forecasts tailored to your area. One application I recommend is “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts,” accessible for both iOS and Android. However, any comparable app should function adequately. I also utilize the “Space Weather Live” application, which is available on iOS and Android, to gain deeper insights into whether present space weather conditions are favorable for spotting auroras.
Northern Hemisphere aurora prediction courtesy of the Met Office
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