VOX POPULI: Blazing fireball over western Japan rekindles cosmic awe, concern

On the night time of Aug. 19, a large meteor fireball streaked throughout the skies of western Japan, its dazzling brilliance momentarily piercing the inky darkness.

Cities and cities, cloaked within the night time, had been abruptly bathed in mild. The fiery orb blazed a path towards the ocean.

Judging by its luminosity, specialists estimate the meteor measured wherever from tens of centimeters to some meters in diameter.

This extraordinary burst of flame and fury unfolded like a summer season pageant within the heavens—a fleeting spectacle that reminded us, as soon as once more, that we dwell on a planet adrift within the vastness of area.

Yet, had the meteoroid struck within the coronary heart of a metropolis, awe may need rapidly given option to alarm.

It’s staggering to be taught that greater than 5,000 tons of cosmic materials rain down on the Earth every year. Most deplete harmlessly within the ambiance, however some survive the descent.

Recently, scientists warned concerning the potential impression of a bigger asteroid.

Attention has turned to asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth object whose orbital path intersects that of our planet.

Estimated to be the scale of a 15-story constructing, its impression would launch a unprecedented quantity of vitality—sufficient to trigger blast injury throughout a radius of as much as 50 kilometers.

Initial trajectory analyses sparked concern, revealing a small however non-zero probability of collision with the Earth. Thankfully, subsequent observations refined its path, lowering the probability of impression to nearly zero.

Yet, the story doesn’t finish there. While the Earth is now not in its crosshairs, scientists proceed to watch a faint however lingering chance: that 2024 YR4 may strike the Moon.

According to “Saikyo ni Omoshiroi Kakuritsu” (The most fascinating chances), overseen by Japanese mathematician Norio Konno, the percentages of profitable the Dream Jumbo lottery’s prime prize are a staggering one in 10 million.

By distinction, the prospect of experiencing a home hearth in any given yr is one in 1,426.

Then there’s a cosmic wild card: the likelihood of dying from a large meteorite impression over the course of a lifetime is estimated at one in 32,400.

It’s not a determine that ought to hold you awake at night time, however neither is it pure science fiction.

There is an previous Chinese story a few man from the state of Qi who was so consumed by fear that he couldn’t sleep.

“What if the sun, moon or stars were to fall?” he fretted.

From this story arose the time period “kiyu”—a compound of Qi, the traditional state, and yu, which means anxiousness or unease. It got here to suggest groundless concern: the sort of fear born not of probability, however of creativeness.

Yet in our age, dismissing the concept of a metropolis being obliterated by a meteor as mere kiyu is now not so easy.

—The Asahi Shimbun, Aug. 22

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a well-liked every day column that takes up a variety of matters, together with tradition, arts and social developments and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column supplies helpful views on and insights into up to date Japan and its tradition.