Common-season video games that modified the result of the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery

The NHL Draft Lottery was this week, and the outcomes have been met with unanimous reward and approval. But what if issues had been completely different?

Specifically, what if one sport, and even one second, from the 2025-26 season had performed out simply barely otherwise? As it seems, that may change every thing. Because of the way in which the method works, and the way the league palms out mixtures to particular spots within the standings, any outcome that shifted these standings would even have ended up altering the lottery outcomes.

That’s the speculation, a minimum of. And it’s one we’ve had some enjoyable with over time, just like the time Patrik Stefan’s notorious open-net blooper ended up sending Patrick Kane to Chicago as a substitute of Edmonton. Last 12 months, we found a random Sabres/Islanders sport no person even remembered ended up sending Matthew Schaefer to New York as a substitute of Buffalo. That may develop into necessary sometime.

We can’t do that yearly, as a result of typically the gaps between groups are huge sufficient that there’s no single sport that works. For instance, if the Canucks had gained the lottery this 12 months, we wouldn’t have been capable of finding a sport that swung the (checks notes) 14-point hole between them and the following staff.

But as you could have heard, the Canucks didn’t win the lottery. Instead, the fortunate numbers belonged to the Twenty eighth-place Maple Leafs and the Twenty fourth-place Sharks. Bad information for Vancouver, however excellent news for us within the hindsight enterprise, as a result of it provides us a lot to work with.

As all the time, in case you’re the kind of one that’s going to be bothered by the premise right here, and suppose you may really feel tempted to wade into the feedback part and rant about butterfly results and the idea of rational determinism, kindly go be a moist blanket some place else. For the remainder of us, let’s discover some moments that modified historical past.

Sharks at Penguins, Dec. 13

With per week to go earlier than the vacation freeze, two groups on the wild-card bubble met for a sport you most likely didn’t pay a lot consideration to.

And for a lot of the sport, you wouldn’t have regretted that. After a good first interval, the Penguins blew the sport open with three objectives within the second. When Anthony Mantha scored a power-play objective 5 minutes into the third, it gave the Pens a 5-1 lead.

That’s when issues received bizarre. While killing a penalty, Penguins defenseman (and former Shark) Erik Karlsson broke his stick. Instead of dropping it, he continued to play with it, incomes a penalty and placing his staff down two males. The Sharks capitalized on the ability play, and the comeback was on. And it didn’t cease, with 4 unanswered San Jose objectives in 11 minutes.

By the time extra time arrived, a Sharks win felt inevitable, and John Klingberg ended it three minutes in.

For the Penguins, it was the newest in a sequence of collapses that had Josh Yohe rightfully ripping them. For the Sharks, it felt just like the kind of studying expertise younger groups want, however not way more.

But now we all know it was. If the Penguins maintain on to win that sport in regulation as they need to have, the Sharks end with 84 factors as a substitute of 86. They’d have been tied with the Panthers, who’d personal the regulation wins tie-breaker. That means it will be Florida as a substitute of San Jose who’d have gained final night time’s second drawing and be selecting second general.

Instead, the Sharks will add one other blue-chip prospect to their stockpile, and the Panthers must wait. All as a result of a 17-year veteran forgot he needed to drop his damaged stick.

Blue Jackets at Rangers, March 2

By the beginning of March, these two groups have been headed in very completely different instructions. The Blue Jackets have been charging laborious after a playoff spot, whereas the Rangers have been already cooked and taking part in out the string with a watch towards the looming commerce deadline. In truth, it’s protected to imagine Rangers followers have been rooting for losses at this level.

For a lot of the night time, it appeared like they’d get their want. The Blue Jackets got here out robust and led 2-0 after one interval, then doubled that result in 4-0 after two.

It was a depressing 40 minutes for the Rangers. In truth, the one spotlight was a second-period power-play objective that was overturned after a evaluate for goalie interference. Vincent referred to as it a borderline name, and it didn’t go New York’s means. Nothing else did both, for 2 intervals.

And then …

That livid comeback noticed the Rangers ultimately tie the sport. We headed to extra time, the place Gabe Perreault had an excellent probability to finish a hat trick and seal the comeback. He didn’t, and Kirill Marchenko gained it for Columbus seconds later.

As Vincent wrote on the time: “Had the Rangers scored a fifth goal in regulation or won in OT, it would have completed the first four-goal third-period comeback victory in franchise history.” In hindsight, additionally they would have moved forward of the Maple Leafs and into Twenty eighth, and it will have been them successful the No. 1 decide on Tuesday night time. But due to a waved-off objective and a comeback that fell simply brief, they will decide fifth as a substitute.

Sharks at Blues, March 26

The total three-game season sequence between these two groups occurred in March. The Blues went 2-1-0 whereas the Sharks went 1-0-2, that means that is a kind of enjoyable occasions the place two groups every had a successful file towards one another. Cool standings system, NHL, it makes a ton of sense.

We’re going to give attention to the center sport, a low-scoring contest that didn’t get a lot consideration on the time. It took till 37 minutes in to get the primary objective, with Dalibor Dvorsky placing the Blues forward. Alexander Wennberg tied it early within the third. And that was about it for regulation, as two groups on the sting of the wild-card race performed it protected and waited for extra time.

We did get some motion within the further body. Specifically, this Sam Dickinson semi-breakaway that required Joel Hofer’s save of the night time.

Keep that clip working, and you may see the way it ended. With the seconds ticking down and a shootout feeling inevitable, Philip Broberg arrange fellow offer-sheet signee Dylan Holloway on a bad-angle break. Holloway in some way transformed, giving the Blues the win with simply three seconds left.

You can most likely guess the place this goes subsequent. Flip the results of this sport to a San Jose OT or shootout win, and the Sharks end the 12 months with 87 factors, whereas the Blues drop to 85. That swaps the 2 groups within the standings, that means the Blues would have simply gained a top-two decide for the primary time in 20 years. Instead, they misplaced by successful.

The lesson, as all the time: Offer sheets don’t work.

Bonus decide

Speaking of buzzer-beaters, how about this one via @AngryPredsFan on X. The publish reads:

“The Sharks winning that second lottery means if the Preds had lost just one extra point this year, then that would’ve been them. This Stamkos goal tied a game with 0.3 seconds left only to lose in overtime, meaning the Preds were 0.3 seconds away from the second-overall pick.”

Honestly, I can’t even be mad about somebody stealing my bit, as a result of that one’s fairly good. I’m unsure if being 0.3 seconds away from a lottery win is a brand new file, but it surely needs to be shut.

OK, let’s attempt a three-fer …

Flames at Bruins, Jan. 8
Rangers at Bruins, Jan. 10

When the Bruins wakened on Jan. 8, they have been in bother. They have been coming off a loss to the Kraken, had gained simply three of their final 10 and have been three factors out of a wild-card spot. They have been behind the Panthers and Leafs, and tied with the Rangers and Devils. Heck, they have been even two factors again of the lowly Sabres, who all of us knew have been going nowhere. Boston wanted some wins.

So they went out and received some. That night time, they hosted the Flames, and cruised to a comparatively straightforward 4-1 win on the power of Joonas Korpisalo’s 28 saves. But it was their subsequent sport that actually caught individuals’s consideration. Facing the Rangers staff they have been battling for a playoff spot, the Bruins erupted for a 10-2 blowout win.

It was the one time all 12 months {that a} staff scored double-digit objectives in a sport. And it could have represented a turning level in each groups’ seasons. The Bruins would go on to place collectively a six-game win streak, sparking a second half that noticed them go 23-8-8, reaching the 100-point mark and securing the East’s second wild-card spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers by no means actually recovered from that humiliating loss, dropping 10 of their subsequent 12 video games and plummeting down the standings.

Let’s play with the outcomes of these video games. If the Flames had managed to come back away with a loser level, they’d have gained the primary general decide. Give Calgary a win as a substitute, and the Kraken decide first. It’s an identical scenario for New York, who’d decide first with some extent or an OT/SO loss and hand the spot to Seattle with a regulation win.

But the ache doesn’t cease there. While the video games helped spur the Bruins to a playoff spot, they technically didn’t really find yourself needing both win, since they made the playoffs by 5 factors. But by beating Calgary and New York in back-to-back video games, the Bruins didn’t simply value each groups the highest decide. They additionally stored all of these eventualities we simply talked about from dropping the Maple Leafs to twenty ninth. And if Toronto finishes there, they find yourself getting handed by each lottery winners — that means their decide would drop to sixth and be transferred to Boston within the Brandon Carlo commerce.

In different phrases, the Bruins did not simply torpedo the highest decide for 3 completely different groups over three days; they inadvertently helped a division rival decide first and value themselves a lottery “win” of their very own within the course of.

And lastly …

Ducks at Maple Leafs, March 12

We’ll finish with the Leafs, who can supply up a virtually limitless variety of choices. They completed one level up on the Flames and Rangers and one level again of the Kraken, so altering the results of nearly any Leafs regulation sport strikes them out of the fortunate Twenty eighth spot. But I feel this one works finest.

By mid-March, the Leafs have been carried out. They’d misplaced eight straight video games, snuffing out any lingering playoff hopes, and had bought on the deadline. They had nothing left to play for after they hosted a younger Ducks staff gunning for first place within the Pacific.

The sport began off as you’d count on, with the Ducks opening up a 3-1 lead a couple of minutes into the second. But the Leafs received a objective from Auston Matthews, after which transformed twice on the ability play to take a 4-3 lead early within the third. They’d add a number of extra and finally earned a 6-4 win, ending their shedding streak and sending their followers house pleased.

Except, in fact, no person was pleased that night time, as a result of we’ve omitted probably the most memorable half. That game-turning energy play got here after Radko Gudas injured Matthews with a knee-on-knee hit, ending the Toronto captain’s season. The Leafs made the Ducks pay on the scoreboard, which is to say they didn’t actually make them pay in any respect.

The entire scene ended up being the defining second of the Leafs’ season, and never in a great way. Their whole lack of response to their captain being damage on an affordable hit rapidly grew to become the speak of the league. It’s not an overstatement to say that the sport grew to become an existential disaster in Toronto, calling into query the staff’s management and character.

And Leafs followers have been livid. Who cares if the staff scored on the following energy play? And who cares in the event that they made some half-hearted efforts at payback within the third interval? In a misplaced season, with nothing to play for, any sort of actual staff would have gone nuclear after the Matthews hit. Forget the rating. Forget about coming again to win the sport. Do one thing. Fill up the penalty field. Get your payback, ship a message, and appear to be you might have some obscure idea of what sport you’re taking part in, you spineless losers.

Except … properly, now we all know. In a really possible way, successful that sport additionally gained the Leafs the draft lottery. If the Leafs go haywire like everybody needed and do not win that night time, then the Flames can be holding the highest decide at this time. But they’re not. The Leafs gained the lottery, proper after they desperately wanted one thing to go proper.

It might have been a franchise-saving piece of fine luck. And now we all know why it occurred — as a result of they watched their finest participant get taken out, shrugged their weary shoulders and centered on successful a sport that didn’t remotely matter, proper up till it turned out it did. They didn’t have their captain’s again, so now they may have their captain’s winger.