Issues to overreact to within the first 40 video games of the season

Before I left for St. Louis and Houston, Eric Stephen posed a query that we as a employees had beforehand requested at first of the season: How many video games will the Dodgers win this season?

At the conclusion of play on April twenty eighth, the day of the follow-up query, the Dodgers dropped to 20-10 over their first 30 video games, representing a 108-win tempo that exceeded probably the most optimistic projections from your complete employees.

However, in our employees prediction article, I mentioned 92 wins, which was by far probably the most conservative prediction.

Truthfully, my closing reply was a bit completely different from what I used to be initially pondering. When mapping out the 12 months, I used to be initially pondering 90 wins and doubtlessly ending second within the division, however didn’t assume that quantity can be ok for the 2-seed, therefore the slight bump.

At no level did I take into account a “I’m going to eat duck mea culpa,” as a result of I noticed this staff on the conclusion of final 12 months, what it had achieved in the course of the offseason, and what it was doing to begin the 12 months. Long offseasons to outdated golf equipment finally write a examine that finally comes due.

Let’s revisit what I mentioned:

This staff may go 116-46 and romp to 11-0 within the postseason as the highest seed. But that end result would require each every thing going proper and the naysayers being proper in regards to the aggressive stability of the game. When this staff coasted final 12 months, it was tough to look at – till October. Assuming good well being, I anticipate extra of the identical. The Dodgers will romp in October beating the Seattle Mariners in 5 largely uncompetitive video games to the enraged howls of the league. (Emphasis added.)

Therefore, I figured there can be a correction within the total document sooner or later. At the conclusion of play on May 10, the Dodgers at the moment are 24-16 and at the moment are on a 97.2-win tempo. Ouch.

After all, dropping two of three to the lowly San Francisco Giants, who at the moment are slinking again to city for the final video games till September 18th, was as large (ha!) a pink flag as one would wave this season. The Rockies and Cardinals have pluck. The Giants are turning right into a cleaning soap opera, which might be humorous beneath completely different circumstances.

In 2025, I assumed there was nearly no cause aside from being misplaced on a three-hour tour or everyone ending up in a hospital after an ill-fated caper that the Dodgers would win fewer than 100 video games within the common season. And lo and behold, they did with aplomb. It finally labored out ultimately, by the pores and skin of everybody’s tooth, a bunch of overmanaging by the Blue Jays (Game 3), and a bunch of baserunning blunders by the Blue Jays (Games 3, 6, 7), however a win is a win. But idiot me twice? Never.

In my view, the Dodgers wanted to get youthful, hungrier…they usually signed the most costly reliever and hitter obtainable. Never thoughts that mentioned reliever is now on the 60-day injured checklist. As for mentioned hitter…properly, here’s what the Dodgers had been saying across the time of the signing:

“Anytime you can add a guy to your lineup that is arguably better against same-side pitching — there’s really no holes in what he does offensively. Really balanced splits, versus right, versus left, incredible decision making, really good bat-to-ball skills,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman mentioned Wednesday. “Just the way that will kind of complement and help further round out our offense, something we thought that would be significant in terms of the odds increasing on our championship quest.”

I preserve ready for the particular person described to point out up, as a result of I get the oddest and most ironic sense of deja vu to this point in 2026. Eric Stephen added that “[s]ince the start of 2021, Tucker is one of only four major league hitters with an isolated power — slugging percentage minus batting average — .200 or above combined with a strikeout rate of 16 percent or lower, along with fellow star players Mookie Betts, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and José Ramírez.“

Tucker has not come close to his statistical pedigree in his first 40 games with the team. In fact, Tucker was essentially signed to replace Michael Conforto, who has since signed as a fourth outfielder with the Chicago Cubs. Those with weak constitutions should look away from the following comparison:

Yes, the Dodgers were pigs, but the team seemed to forget that pigs are usually the first things slaughtered when winter comes. Ask the Phillies and the Mets about what happens when one does not plan for winter. But it’s not time to panic yet.

We don’t have a time machine (and if we did, unlimited rice pudding, among other things, would be the order of the day), so one can just look over the archives for the source of the Dodgers’ current woes.

“Play like the back of your baseball card.”

At occasions, the present Dodgers look much less like a staff and extra like a group of geriatric mercenaries, using excessive on their very own success. I bear in mind the darkish days of September 2025, and I’m seeing some terrible similarities. I’m uncertain how a staff can look this gassed in May, however age catches up with everybody, and this subject will possible be revisited within the coming months.

Perhaps I’m being too refined. So let’s rip the bandage off utilizing one among my favourite movies of the previous fifteen years: 2013’s Rush with Daniel Brühl because the late racing legend Niki Lauda. Replace the phrase “Ferrari” with “Dodgers offense,” and I feel you get 99% of the best way there.

The Dodgers’ 2026 offense was bought as an offensive juggernaut. The rotation has been dynamite to this point in 2026, however just like the 2024 NLDS San Diego Padres, should you don’t rating, you can’t win.

Unlike the Mets, who appear hellbent on proving that cash doesn’t purchase victory, and the Phillies, who in some way ran it again after attempting to not, failing to the purpose their most up-to-date supervisor was fired, just for Don Mattingly to in some way be put in cost, and time is a flat circle, I can perceive why everybody was hyping the Dodgers to romp in 2026 based mostly on the names assembled.

Admittedly, some days, sure, the offense lives as much as the hype. However, these days, the offense has been extra fickle than an Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifogli — spends extra time within the store than on the highway. But the time for roster building is long gone.

To paraphrase Dodgers’ shade man Orel Hershiser, a majority of the Dodgers will not be hitting just like the again of their baseball playing cards both attributable to damage or ineffectiveness, utilizing stats as present as of the beginning of play on May tenth to reveal the purpose:

So far, Ohtani (181 OPS+ in 2025), Freeman (143 OPS+), Smith (153 OPS+), Tucker (144 OPS+), Rojas (101 OPS+), and T. Hernandez (104 OPS+) haven’t matched their manufacturing from final 12 months. Expecting the superhuman from Ohtani and Freeman could also be unfair, however do not forget that 100 OPS+ is common, and the 2026 Dodgers weren’t constructed to be common.

To play Devil’s Advocate for a second, Mookie Betts has solely performed in eight video games to this point in 2026. Also, Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernández have but to play in 2026. Maybe the time has come to search out extra at-bats for Alex Call and Dalton Rushing and possibly give Ohtani extra relaxation, which is a topic for one more day. Now that Freeland has been optioned, Kim might want to proceed to provide.

When your offensive assault is being led by Andy Pages and a soon-to-be-36-year-old Max Muncy, both the pair is enjoying out of their minds (admittedly, Pages is), a few of the regular suspects must step it up, or possibly the orthodoxy of the lineup must be tossed apart in lieu of the obtainable personnel.

Eric Stephen identified across the time of the Tucker signing that the Dodgers in 2025 had a 21.9 % strikeout fee as a staff, the 12th-lowest in the majors. So far, in 2026, the staff’s strikeout fee has improved, currently sitting at 20.9% on May 11, which is nice sufficient for eighth-best in baseball.

If the staff isn’t hanging out as a lot, why is the offense misfiring as a lot as it’s? In half, too many double performs.

Watching the Dodgers in St. Louis gave me a sobering thought: how is a staff that’s attempting to hit the ball into the air hitting so many weak floor balls? In the 2 video games I used to be current for, the Dodgers hit into eight mind-numbing double performs over 18 innings. While it won’t be time to name for the culling of the hitting coaches, it does beg the query of what’s going on.

The Dodgers hit into solely 108 double performs in 2025 (barely worse than the league common of 104), barely up from the 99 double performs they hit into in 2024 (barely higher than the league common of 108).

So far, the Dodgers’ offense in 2026 would possibly as properly be sponsored by Doublemint Gum, as a result of they’re hitting into twin killings at an alarming fee. Only the Anaheim Angels, Texas Rangers, and Pittsburgh Pirates have hit into extra double performs than the Dodgers in 2026.

In 40 video games to this point, the Dodgers have hit into 34 double performs, in 40 video games with Freeman (6) and Teoscar (5) main the best way. If traits maintain, the 2026 Dodgers are on tempo to hit into 138 double performs (rounded up from 137.7), which might simply be the worst mark of the championship run.

The Dodgers now face a floundering opponent, with out their finest starter, at dwelling, whereas in one other stretch of consecutive video games with no time off till per week from Thursday. In concept, the Dodgers ought to romp, but theory only gets you so far.