What Canadian journey declines imply for Arizona's economic system

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Canadian tourism to Arizona dropped by 22% in 2025, with about 664,000 guests.
Reasons for the decline embrace political tensions and financial pressures.
Some Canadian airways have diminished flight frequency to Phoenix.

Foreign seashores are changing saguaros as Canadians’ most popular winter view.

Canadian tourism to Arizona fell 22% in 2025, to not the file lows seen throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, however nonetheless a dramatic drop.

About 664,000 Canadians visited Arizona in 2025, about 188,000 fewer folks than in 2024, in line with new information from the Arizona Office of Tourism, the state’s tourism analysis and advertising useful resource.

The state’s new preliminary information expands the image of the affect that Canadian boycotts on tourism to the U.S. had on Arizona, a key marketplace for snowbirds trying to escape Canada’s chilly winters. Several airways diminished service to the U.S. and expanded flights to Mexico and the Caribbean.

Data from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport confirmed a dip in site visitors aboard Canadian airways. Airport officers cited this decline as a major cause why the airport’s total passenger site visitors fell 1.3% in 2025 following a file 12 months of greater than 50 million passengers in 2024.

How many Canadians go to Arizona?

Arizona welcomed about 664,000 Canadian guests in 2025, in line with the Arizona Office of Tourism. That’s 22% fewer guests in comparison with 2024 and a far cry from the file 975,000 Canadians that visited in 2018. However, it is greater than double the pandemic low of 257,400 guests in 2020.

The declines in Canadian visits to Arizona had been obvious even in excellent news for state tourism.

International journey at Sky Harbor is bettering from 2025, with robust curiosity within the new China Airlines and Starlux Airlines flights to Taiwan offsetting the drops in Canadian journey, Phoenix Aviation Director Chad Makovsky stated in a current Phoenix Aviation Advisory Board assembly.

Overall worldwide visitation to Arizona grew to about 5.38 million in 2025, a modest enhance of 1.2%, regardless of the losses in Canadian guests, in line with AOT. Arizona has the fifth-largest share of worldwide vacationers within the U.S., surpassed solely by California, New York, Florida and Texas, in line with Tourism Economics.

March 2026 marked Sky Harbor’s all-time busiest month with 5.1 million passengers flying out and in of the airport. But solely 78,590 of them flew on routes to Canada, down from 115,430 passengers in March 2025, airport information confirmed. That identical month, Canadian provider WestJet noticed a 40% drop in Sky Harbor site visitors, largely from fewer passengers deplaning in Phoenix from Canada.

Why are fewer Canadians visiting Arizona?

Arizona Office of Tourism workers cited coverage sensitivity, financial pressures and competitors from different locations as the explanations for the drop in Canadian guests in 2025.

Experts attribute the declining demand for Canadian vacationer visits to the U.S. partly to Canadian vacationers’ unfavorable sentiment of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian items and his calls to annex Canada because the 51st state. Some Canadians are additionally avoiding U.S. journey as a result of the Canadian greenback is weak in opposition to the U.S. greenback.

Nationwide, many U.S. airports have misplaced routes to Canada due to decrease demand from Canadian vacationers and snowbirds. Many Canadian airways have refocused their winter schedules on routes to Mexico and the Caribbean to fulfill larger demand from Canadians for these flights.

Can you continue to fly to Canada from Phoenix?

Other than shedding seasonal service from funds provider Flair Airlines, Canadian carriers have largely spared Phoenix routes from the chopping block.

Nationwide, Canadian carriers diminished capability on routes to and from the U.S. by about 10%, with East Coast and Midwest airports probably to lose routes, stated Tomasz Pawliszyn, CEO of passenger rights firm AirHelp. For occasion, there have been 65% fewer flights between Montreal and New York City in 2025 than there have been in 2024.

While most Canadian routes from Phoenix stay intact, airways diminished the frequency of flights. WestJet minimize summer time flights to Vancouver, British Columbia and Edmonton, Alberta; airline spokeswoman Julia Kaiser stated WestJet noticed “no indication” that slower demand for Canadian journey to the U.S. would get well within the close to future.

Low-cost provider Porter Airlines, which launched service out of Sky Harbor in October 2024 with year-round flights to Toronto, is the one Canadian airline so as to add routes between Phoenix and Canada since January 2025. It launched seasonal service to Vancouver and Ottawa, Ontario for the winter 2026 season.

Vancouver flights will return for winter 2027, which may also embrace new seasonal routes to Calgary and Edmonton, each in Alberta.

Porter is the one Canadian provider with passenger development at Sky Harbor during the last three months, airport information confirmed.

What’s subsequent for Canadian tourism in Arizona

Evidence suggests the declines will prolong into 2026.

From January to March, about 3.5 million Canadians returned from journey to the U.S. through car, about 600,000 fewer than the primary three months of 2025 and about 1.7 million fewer than the primary three months of 2024, according to Statistics Canada.

The variety of Canadians who flew to return from U.S. journey dropped as effectively. About 1.6 million Canadians returned by air from January to March, about 300,000 fewer than January-March 2025 and about 600,000 fewer than January-March 2024, in line with Statistics Canada.

Canadian airways welcomed 228,545 passengers within the first three months of 2026, down from 304,492 passengers throughout the identical interval in 2025, Sky Harbor information confirmed.

State tourism officers anticipate Canadian tourism to Arizona will not get well till 2029 — the 12 months that Trump’s second time period will finish. But they stated it is an enchancment from earlier projections that the declines would not be reversed till 2030.

Glenn Williamson, CEO and chief analysis officer of the Canada Arizona Business Council, anticipates about 20% fewer Canadians will go to Arizona within the 2025-26 season.

Short-term guests who keep for 30 days or fewer, plus snowbirds who keep 31 days or longer, are each crucial to Arizona’s economic system. Williamson estimates their complete annual financial contribution in Arizona is at the very least $2.4 billion.

“This scale rivals the economic output of several Arizona counties and approaches that of major export-driven industries, yet it arrives without subsidies, incentive packages or publicly funded recruitment efforts,” he stated in a February report.

WestJet’s discount in nonstop service between Canada and Phoenix over the summer time months appeared like “doing the right thing” as a result of fewer folks go to in the summertime with Arizona’s triple-digit temperatures, Williamson stated.

But he thinks fewer direct service choices will not deter Canadians who wish to go to.

“There is a direct flight slowdown,” he stated. “But Canadian visitors are finding other flight combinations to still come to Arizona.”

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Michael Salerno is an award-winning journalist who’s coated journey and tourism since 2014. His work as The Arizona Republic’s shopper journey reporter goals to assist readers navigate the stresses of touring and get the very best worth for his or her cash on their holidays. He may be reached at [email protected].

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