2026 Sun Belt faculty soccer preview, predictions for each crew

It’s virtually just like the residing was just a bit too good within the Sun Belt. The nation’s best faculty soccer convention — one which continues to concentrate on issues like “geography” and “local rivalries” and “natural divisions” — has additionally been one among its most enjoyable for fairly some time. And lately, it had turn out to be more and more profitable, too.

The Sun Belt had the best common SP+ ranking of any Group of 5 convention in 2023, with two groups within the prime 30 (Curt Cignetti’s James Madison and Jon Sumrall’s Troy) and one other 5 within the prime 70. From 2020 to 2024, the convention was within the G5’s prime two 4 instances. But the usual slipped a bit when Cignetti (Indiana) and Sumrall (Troy) each left. The Sun Belt ranked third within the G5 final season, with Bob Chesney’s JMU twenty seventh however solely three different groups within the prime 85.

This offseason, each Chesney and Charles Huff — the coaches of the final two Sun Belt champs — left the convention. Now, with solely 5 groups ranked larger than one hundred and fifth in returning manufacturing, the Sun Belt is projected to rank fourth out of six mid-major conferences, nearer to fifth-place Conference USA than the third-place American. Even the brand new standard-bearer, James Madison, is taking over a significant reset.

On the brilliant facet, the convention turns into much more geographically wise this yr: With Texas State off to the redesigned Pac-12, Louisiana Tech paid a premium to go away CUSA sooner than anticipated and be part of the Sun Belt West. That’s signal that Fun Belt life continues to be one thing to aspire to, and it lastly places Tech in the identical convention as two different colleges, Louisiana and Louisiana-Monroe, which have lengthy clamored to turn out to be its rivals. The hostility quotient within the convention rose a bit, in different phrases. Hell yeah.

Who is finest positioned to make the most of this second of transition? Let’s preview the Sun Belt!

2025 recap

For a second, it appeared like we have been headed for a hell of a race within the East division. Old Dominion walloped Virginia Tech, examined Indiana greater than virtually any Big Ten crew and gave us one of many nation’s most explosive offenses; the Monarchs appeared prepared to check an brazenly incredible James Madison crew for division supremacy. They even led the Dukes 27-21 deep into the primary half, in Harrisonburg. But JMU unleashed a dominant 42-0 run from there and rolled to each the division and convention titles. In a stable comfort prize, ODU received 10 video games for the primary time in 9 years.

The West division gave us fairly a thought experiment in 2025: What occurs when a wholesome proportion of the convention champion’s roster grafts onto the convention’s worst crew?

Charles Huff left Marshall for Southern Miss after 2024’s title run, and he certainly introduced a load of transfers with him. Marshall’s SP+ ranking fell by 7.6 factors, and the Thundering Herd’s win complete was lower in half, from 10 to 5. Southern Miss’ ranking, in the meantime, rose by an identical quantity: 7.1 factors. That was sufficient to spice up the Golden Eagles from 1-11 and 133rd in SP+ to 7-6 and 94th. They have been division front-runners, too, till three late losses handed the division to defense-driven Troy.

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Continuity desk

The continuity desk appears to be like at every crew’s returning manufacturing ranges (offense, protection and general), the variety of 2025 FBS begins from each returning and incoming gamers and the approximate variety of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why “approximate”? Because colleges typically make it very tough to establish who redshirted and who did not.) Continuity is an more and more tough artwork in roster administration, however some groups pull it off higher than others.

Only 5 Sun Belt groups rank higher than one hundred and fifth in returning manufacturing, and the highest 4 are all within the West division. At 53rd, beginner Louisiana Tech has the most effective continuity by a cushty margin. Meanwhile, Arkansas State returns probably the most 2025 starters of anybody, a yr after arising one win brief within the West. Can the Red Wolves discover a quarterback and turn out to be solely the third crew (after Louisiana and Troy) to characterize the West within the Sun Belt championship recreation?

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2026 projections

JMU nonetheless begins the yr forward of the pack, however the Dukes are projected to fall almost 50 spots in SP+. With seven groups projected between 89th and 104th, we might see any variety of plot twists right here if new head coach Billy Napier’s Dukes do not rapidly show their class.

The 2024 champ (Marshall), the 2025 champ (JMU) and the champ’s largest 2025 challenger (ODU) begin out with the benefit within the East. I assume that is smart.

A yr after 4 groups completed inside a recreation of the West lead, 4 groups are projected inside 0.4 common convention wins of one another. I assume that additionally is smart.

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Five finest video games of 2026

Here are the 5 convention video games that function (a) the best mixed SP+ rankings for each groups and (b) a projected scoring margin below eight factors.

Sept. 26: James Madison at Old Dominion. We do not have to attend lengthy to see if ODU has closed the hole on JMU. The Monarchs will host the defending champs in every crew’s first convention recreation of 2026. That’s what we name a tone setter.

Oct. 3: Marshall at James Madison. Every week after the journey to ODU, JMU welcomes the different potential East favourite to Harrisonburg. The Dukes’ Billy Napier signed a beautiful switch class, however he will not have a lot time to determine what this new roster has to supply.

Oct. 29: Troy at James Madison. A rematch of final yr’s title recreation, during which Troy was capable of scare JMU for many of 4 full quarters. I discuss hinge groups rather a lot — the nice groups that play in a number of vital video games (and due to this fact determine who makes the convention title recreation, whether or not it is them or not) — and on this case, the defending champ is the convention’s main hinge crew.

Oct. 31: Marshall at Old Dominion. This checklist is extraordinarily East-heavy, each as a result of its title race might be tight and due to the “highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams” requirement. Three of the convention’s prime 4 projected groups are from the East, and if JMU is not the category of the division, it is in all probability one among these two.

Nov. 7: Troy at Louisiana Tech. A West recreation! This one might set the stakes for the season’s residence stretch. Is Tech mounting a title push in its Sun Belt debut? Has Troy positioned itself for a repeat?

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My 5 favourite transfers

DT Kevin Roberts, JMU. For a lot of the Group of 6, portal life comes all the way down to discovering probably the most disruptive gamers potential from the FCS ranks or decrease. In West Florida’s Roberts, Napier discovered a possible gem. Roberts recorded 18 tackles for loss at 291 kilos final season! I do not care that it was towards Division II competitors — that is severe havoc proper there.

QB Max Johnson, Georgia Southern. I do not even know if he’ll win the job — he first has to beat out sophomores Turner Helton and Weston Bryan — however I really like that we would see a enjoyable ultimate act for Johnson, the previous LSU and North Carolina quarterback who got here again from one of the crucial grotesque leg accidents you will ever see in 2024. If he is able to thriving, he’ll accomplish that in a Georgia Southern offense effectively suited to his talent set.

RB Nick Herman, JMU. Wayne Knight left enormous footwear to fill after dashing for 1,373 yards in JMU’s purple and gold final season. Veteran returnee George Pettaway might earn beginning honors, however I really like the addition of Herman, who rushed for 1,034 yards and seven.2 yards per carry as a freshman at FCS Drake final season. The Chicago product might be a right away hit, however together with his youth, he has time to develop right into a star as effectively.

LB/NB Kevin Henderson, Appalachian State. Is he an out of doors linebacker? Or at 5-foot-11, 210 kilos, is he extra of a nickel again? All I do know for certain is that Henderson is a playmaker. At Division II Findlay, he made 15.5 TFLs final yr with three sacks, and he nonetheless discovered time to drop into protection and choose off a move with seven breakups. The Oilers ranked second in defensive SP+ in Division II, and Henderson was as a lot of a driving pressure as anybody.

WR Jaylen Himes, Southern Miss. Another Division II star, Himes was a big-play specialist as a freshman, needing solely 66 catches to realize 1,174 yards (17.8 per catch) and rating 11 touchdowns for a nine-win Wingate crew. In his solely Division II playoff recreation — one which ended in dramatic misfortune for Himes’ Bulldogs — he caught 4 balls for 138 yards and two scores. He’s listed at 5-foot-8, 180 kilos, so there will likely be a bodily adjustment on this transfer. But talent is talent.

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Conference title (and, due to this fact, CFP) contenders

• Head coach: Billy Napier (first yr)

• 2026 projection: seventy fifth in SP+, 8.5 common wins (5.8 within the Sun Belt)

It’s onerous to overlook the final impression somebody has made. When James Madison employed Billy Napier to exchange UCLA-bound Bob Chesney, it felt virtually underwhelming: After succeeding wildly with FCS up-and-comers — Chesney got here from Holy Cross, whereas predecessor Curt Cignetti (Google him) got here from Elon — what was JMU doing hiring the man who simply went 22-23 at Florida?

Of course, Napier additionally constructed a Sun Belt juggernaut. After a single .500 season, his Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns went 34-5 from 2019 to 2021, peaking at twenty third in SP+ and successful two convention titles. With stable analysis and improvement, plus a hankering for pure measurement and physicality, Napier crafted a roster that was simply an excessive amount of for the common Sun Belt crew to deal with. And now he is at what could be probably the most well-resourced Sun Belt program. That makes a great deal of sense.

The faculty soccer world has modified since 2021, and there is nothing saying Napier will merely have the ability to flip the Sun Belt Domination swap once more. The solely assure is that 2026 JMU will look virtually nothing like 2025 JMU. While 27 Dukes took not less than 300 snaps final fall, solely 4 return: middle Zach Greenberg, receiver Braeden Wisloski, edge rusher Amar Thomas and linebacker Gannon Weathersby.

As anticipated, amongst Napier’s 41 incoming transfers are loads of massive dudes, together with offensive linemen listed at 6-foot-5, 339 kilos; 6-8, 321; 6-8, 310; 6-7, 307; 6-6, 325; and 6-2; 321. Beyond that, nonetheless, Napier appears to be like like he is attempting to separate the distinction between instant assist and guys he can develop.

It’s as if Napier searched “Best small-school underclassmen” and vacuumed up everybody he noticed: Running again Nick Herman (1,034 yards at Drake), receivers Noah Grevious (728 yards at VMI) and Jeremiah Harrison (17.2 yards per catch at East Tennessee State), offensive lineman Frankie Tinilau (11 begins at East Tennessee), defensive sort out Kevin Roberts (18 TFLs at West Florida), linebackers Lathan Croley and JT Hooten (153 tackles between them at Holy Cross and West Alabama), and defensive backs Terrence Jones II, Jayon Harvey and Damier Minkah (mixed: 3 INTs, 28 move breakups and eight.5 TFLs at Fordham, Findley and Shepherd, respectively) are all sophomores or juniors.

With FBS sophomores corresponding to quarterbacks Arrington Maiden (Memphis) and Davi Belfort (UCF), blue-chip receiver Kylan Billiot (LSU), offensive linemen Kaedin Massey (Kansas State) and Noel Portnjagin (Florida), defensive finish Ernest Willor Jr. (Wisconsin), defensive sort out Chukwunedu Okeke (Western Kentucky) and cornerback DJ Kelly (Toledo), this is among the most gifted younger switch courses within the nation. Whichever gamers emerge as JMU’s finest in 2026, they will in all probability nonetheless have eligibility left in 2027.

Still, this makes 2026 a transition yr. Even if Napier is able to bulldozing Sun Belt competitors once more, he would possibly spend this fall determining what he has and what the order of succession must be at QB, the place Maiden, Belfort, Camden Coleman (a 2025 switch who was 13-1 as Richmond’s starter) and massive, cell sophomore JC Evans will battle into the autumn. An straightforward schedule will assist — JMU’s slate ranks 132nd in energy of schedule, per preseason SP+ — however we’ll see how lengthy it takes to get the chess board organized.

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• Head coach: Ricky Rahne (sixth yr, 30-33 general)

• 2026 projection: 89th in SP+, 7.4 common wins (5.2 within the Sun Belt)

Ricky Rahne might have achieved the most effective teaching job within the mid-major ranks final season: Despite iffy returning manufacturing numbers, Old Dominion surged from 5-7 and ninety fifth in SP+ to 10-3 and fiftieth. The Monarchs risked turnovers within the title of huge performs however ranked seventh in yards per profitable play and topped 40 factors 4 instances (together with in a 45-26 romp over Virginia Tech).

The protection, in the meantime, misplaced a few key linebackers to damage however attacked the move vigorously, rating thirteenth in yards per dropback and forcing 25 turnovers. Colton Joseph and the offense acquired many of the consideration, however each items ranked within the 40s in SP+, and ODU went 10-1 towards groups not named Indiana or James Madison.

Rahne’s expertise identification abilities are nearly as good as anybody’s at this level, however together with his Monarchs rating 114th in returning manufacturing, and with offensive coordinator Kevin Decker off to Memphis, he is had to make use of these abilities rather a lot this offseason. Gone are principally 10.5 offensive starters, plus prime defensive havoc creators in finish Kris Trinidad and nickel Jeremy Mack Jr. But the protection continues to be skilled, with coordinator Blake Seiler again, and the offense could have an opportunity at extra massive performs if expertise identification produces the proper portal stars.

Of the 18 defenders with not less than 200 snaps final season, 10 return, a stable quantity that features glorious sophomores in sort out Chris Forbes and linebacker Jackson Forrest and 6 of final yr’s prime 9 DBs. Two of ODU’s finest 2024 defenders, linebackers Mario Thompson and Koa Naotala, are again as effectively. With 4 transfers and 5 jucos offering depth, this might simply be one of many convention’s most confirmed items.

That’s good as a result of there’s nothing confirmed in regards to the offense. Joseph is off to Wisconsin, and of the seven gamers who gained not less than 400 yards from scrimmage final season, solely working again Devin Roche returns. Roche is superior: Despite his 5-foot-7, 172-pound body, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry after contact in 2025, consistently bouncing off potential tacklers. Plus, sophomore quarterback Quinn Henicle led ODU to a bowl win over South Florida. (He averaged solely 3.6 yards per dropback however rushed for 148 yards and two TDs.)

But Rahne and new coordinator Kody Cook must hope small-school stars make the FBS transition rapidly, from working again Hunter Patterson (West Liberty) to receivers Zion Agnew (Lenoir-Rhyne) and Kendall Harris (Mercer) to any of the 4 FCS or Division II transfers up entrance. Rahne leaned closely into juco transfers as effectively — an intriguing technique if it seems colleges are overlooking juco expertise within the title of portal additions. If both Henicle or Washington State switch Jaxon Potter can do a stable Joseph impression at QB and small-school manufacturing turns into Sun Belt manufacturing, ODU will stay a contender.

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• Head coach: Gerad Parker (third yr, 12-14 general)

• 2026 projection: ninetieth in SP+, 7.3 common wins (5.0 within the Sun Belt)

Three video games into 2025, Gerad Parker’s Troy tenure had produced only a 5-10 general file. Starting quarterback Goose Crowder was injured, too. For a program that ignites below the proper coach (Neal Brown went 31-8 from 2016 to ’18, Jon Sumrall went 23-5 in 2022 and ’23) and falls aside below the flawed one (three straight five-win seasons for Chip Lindsey in between), Parker was wanting extra just like the latter than the previous.

But issues improved rapidly. Troy received 5 in a row, and after backup QB Tucker Kilcrease ran out of magic in a pair of early November losses, Crowder returned and led the Trojans to a pair of wins and a decent Sun Belt title recreation exhibiting. (The Trojans trailed JMU 17-14 with 5 minutes left earlier than a pair of late Dukes TDs.) Despite an offense that appeared scary solely briefly, good move protection and sensible crimson zone protection produced a stable 8-6 marketing campaign.

The offense must carry extra weight if Troy is to achieve the title recreation once more. While edge rusher Donnie Smith returns — he might have been the Trojans’ finest defender final season, with 11 sacks and 7 run stops — 13 of Dontae Wright’s 19 regulars (200-plus snaps) don’t. Smith, sort out Kam Curry, linebackers Luke Hodge and TJ Thompson and security Justin Powe might type a stable base of senior management, however children and newcomers from each the portal and juco ranks should fill a number of holes.

To kick-start the offense, Parker made a reasonably thrilling rent: Adam Austin coordinated one among FCS’ most explosive offenses at Tarleton State final season, and he’ll take over a fairly skilled unit.

Part of the plus of getting to begin one million guys in a season, as Troy did on offense final season — OK, not a million, however the Trojans began two quarterbacks, two working backs, 9 receivers and tight ends and 11 linemen — is that it distributes the expertise fairly a bit. Eleven of these 24 mixed starters return, and whereas the receiving corps took a significant hit (returning wideouts mixed for seven catches final season, all from junior Mojo Dortch), Crowder and Kilcrease are each again and have mixed for 20 profession begins and three,962 passing yards. Six skilled linemen return, too, and Parker did effectively in including all-conference linemen Jordon Jones (Ohio) and Luke Petit (Furman).

Obviously none of this issues if dependable weapons do not emerge within the talent corps, and past Dortch, I do not even know who might need breakthrough potential. But offensive system and expertise at QB and on the O-line can take you fairly far.

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• Head coach: Tony Gibson (second yr, 5-7 general)

• 2026 projection: 92nd in SP+, 7.8 common wins (5.1 within the Sun Belt)

When your win complete will get lower in half, from 10 to 5, it is onerous to say you had something however a poor season. But so far as poor seasons go, Marshall’s was forgivable. The Thundering Herd ranked useless final nationally in returning manufacturing in 2025 after Sun Belt-winning head coach Charles Huff was allowed to go away for Southern Miss and took a great deal of gamers with him. (Southern Miss this yr: useless final in returning manufacturing after Huff left for Memphis.) And the Herd started the season wanting like a bunch of men who did not know their teammates’ names. They misplaced three of their first 4 video games towards FBS opponents whereas underachieving towards fairly pessimistic SP+ projections.

The remainder of the yr was actually not superb, however the bleeding stopped. They performed a fantastic pair of video games in October — a 48-34 upset of Old Dominion, then a pleasant 40-37 double-overtime win over Texas State — and whereas they misplaced 4 of their ultimate 5 video games, two of these have been unfortunate shut losses to Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. (They outgained these opponents, 6.6 yards per play to five.1, however misplaced by seven mixed factors.) The offense surged midseason and the protection improved late (albeit because the offense pale), and by Sun Belt requirements they now enter 2026 with respectable continuity.

Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson returns after combining 2,043 passing yards with 714 non-sack dashing yards over 10 begins, and he will get three of final yr’s prime 4 receivers and a pair of offensive line starters again. The Herd positively want transfers to contribute at working again and on the offensive line, however veteran offensive coordinator Rod Smith will get rather a lot out of dual-threat QBs, and after a number of stops in his profession, Del Rio-Wilson, a former top-60 recruit, has turn out to be a reasonably good one.

Gibson acquired the pinnacle teaching job due to each his in depth West Virginia ties and nice protection; the latter did not cease Marshall from plummeting to 119th in defensive SP+ final season, and to cease the bleeding, Gibson introduced again a well-recognized face. Brad Lambert oversaw huge enchancment in his final stint as Marshall’s defensive coordinator (2019-20), however he hasn’t seen a lot success since, and he’ll take over a model new unit.

Of the 21 defenders with not less than 200 snaps, solely seven return, and solely three began greater than 4 video games. Lanky exterior linebacker Javae Gilmore is a keeper (15 run stops in 2025), and security Daytione Smith is nice. But Lambert will doubtless be asking former backups like sort out Cam Chmura, linebacker Cannon Lewis and security Caleb Clark-Glover, plus a great deal of incoming transfers, to step up. Veteran cornerbacks Charles McCartherens (Buffalo) and Brayden Hall (Central Connecticut) are in all probability probably the most confirmed gamers within the portal haul.

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• Head coach: Butch Jones (sixth yr, 26-37 general)

• 2026 projection: a hundred and first in SP+, 6.9 common wins (5.1 within the Sun Belt)

After 5 seasons, Butch Jones has Arkansas State in a definitively respectable place. After a tough begin, with 5 wins in two seasons, his Red Wolves have gone 21-18 with a median SP+ rating of 96.0 since 2023. That does not match the heady days of the 2010s — from 2011 to 2019, ASU averaged 8.1 wins per season and a rating of 74.9 — nevertheless it’s not unhealthy. And with a convention schedule that fingers them solely the underside two projected groups from the East division, the Wolves are observing a reasonably high-level alternative in 2026.

Now they only have to hope they’ve a quarterback. After three years, 8,694 passing yards and 67 complete touchdowns as ASU’s starter, Jaylen Raynor left for Iowa State. With backup Josh Flowers additionally gone, Jones introduced in 4 transfers, together with former blue-chipper Trey Owens (Texas) and a pair of Vanderbilt gamers (senior Drew Dickey and sophomore Jérémy St-Hilaire) who adopted new offensive coordinator Garrett Altman, Vandy’s former QBs coach, to Jonesboro. That trio of newbies and returning senior Ethan Crawford will proceed to compete into the autumn.

Whoever wins the job ought to have a stable supporting forged. ASU returns 5 of seven linemen who began not less than 4 video games final season; the inside line trio of guards Wil Saxton and Tristian Smith and middle Mason Myers all loved stellar blown block charges, and Jones added 4 transfers and two jucos as effectively. Last yr’s prime two working backs (Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer) and 5 of the seven gamers who caught not less than 25 passes (Chauncy Cobb, Hunter Summers, Jaylen Bonelli, Clay and Spencer) are again as effectively. There aren’t a whole lot of statistical standouts on this bunch, however they’re skilled, and maybe a newcomer like working again Corey Reddick (Valdosta State) or receiver Boski Barrett (Vandy) can present some pop.

The protection is getting a makeover, and that may not be a foul factor. The Red Wolves have not ranked larger than 106th in defensive SP+ since 2018, and whereas they rushed the passer effectively final fall, they did not pressure opponents delayed sufficient for that to matter. ASU was 4-1 when permitting fewer than 27 factors, however the massive word there’s they did that solely 5 instances.

The prime 4 safeties return, together with fairly just a few sophomore backups, however the lineup will likely be loaded with newcomers. Jones signed 17 transfers (plus 4 jucos) for the protection alone, and whereas corners Five Hamilton (Kennesaw State) and Noah Flores (Utah State) are spectacular, and linebacker Tre Stevens (Lafayette) might be a stabilizer, it looks like defensive sort out noticed the largest improve: Shakai Woods (Middle Tennessee) and Sultan Badmus (Temple) mixed for 9 TFLs, Tyeland Coleman (Florida State) is bodily spectacular and Elias Sherman (Maine) made 10 TFLs at 290 kilos final season. If the road supplies higher resistance up entrance, an skilled secondary might thrive. Last yr’s finest move rushers are gone, however when you’re forcing much more passing downs, that is a good commerce.

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• Head coach: Michael Desormeaux (fifth yr, 29-25 general)

• 2026 projection: 104th in SP+, 7.7 common wins (5.1 within the Sun Belt)

A switch class could make or break you; so can the shortage of 1. Michael Desormeaux elected to not load up on newcomers final yr regardless of shedding about 15 starters following 2024’s 10-win breakthrough. He introduced in solely seven transfers, trusting the expertise pipeline he had in place. But neither the pipeline nor the transfers offered what was wanted. The offense fell from thirty ninth to 84th in SP+, the protection fell from 78th to 113th, and even particular groups plummeted from thirty seventh to 113th. Transfer quarterback Walker Howard was a bust, and just one switch, receiver Shelton Sampson Jr., was a real hit. The offense improved late within the season with Lunch Winfield at quarterback, averaging 34.3 factors throughout a four-game successful streak that salvaged bowl eligibility. But a bowl dud towards Delaware produced a 3rd shedding season (albeit all 6-7 campaigns) in 4 years for Desormeaux.

In response, Desormeaux is doubling down on the pipeline. In come solely 5 transfers, and solely a few them — working again Anthony Reagan Jr. (Howard) and defensive finish Tito Chikere (East Texas A&M) — have been notably productive final season. The lack of strikes is sort of a daring transfer in itself, nevertheless it’s not onerous to see the logic. Plenty of final yr’s most attention-grabbing gamers have been both sophomores (Winfield, Sampson, middle Cooper Fordham, security Kody Jackson) or freshmen (cornerback Brent Gordon Jr., security Lake Bates). Louisiana has the third-best returning manufacturing numbers within the Sun Belt. Maybe that is sufficient for a rebound?

Winfield was inconsistent in 2025, however his brightest moments have been great. He was 14-for-15 for 232 yards and two scores towards South Alabama, and he rushed 15 instances for 131 yards and two scores in a good win over Arkansas State three weeks later. UL’s prime two working backs are gone, however Reagan and sophomore Steven Blanco are intriguing, redshirt freshman JJ Garner was a spring recreation star, six linemen with beginning expertise return, and UL virtually at all times has a stable, bodily floor assault. Building an offense round Winfield’s dual-threat capabilities, the standard Cajuns run recreation and bombs to Sampson is smart.

The protection is the query mark. Third-year coordinator Jim Salgado has a keeper in Gordon, and of the 11 defensive backs who began not less than as soon as in 2025, seven return. But the entrance six should change six of its prime eight (and each of its main havoc creators), and once more, just one semi-proven switch is available in. Quite just a few children acquired their toes moist final season, however none confirmed surefire promise. Louisiana performed 5 video games with not less than 62 mixed factors final season, and I’m guessing there will likely be an identical variety of observe meets in 2026.

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• Head coach: Sonny Cumbie (fifth yr, 19-31 general)

• 2026 projection: 99th in SP+, 6.4 common wins (4.7 within the Sun Belt)

Welcome to the Fun Belt, Louisiana Tech! The Bulldogs paid extra cash to Conference USA to affix the Sun Belt a yr early, and whereas the schedule makers weren’t notably sort, they enter 2026 with an honest shot on the West division title.

After three straight shedding seasons below Sonny Cumbie (and 4 straight general), the Bulldogs lastly discovered some traction in 2025, incomes their finest win complete (eight) and SP+ rating (77) in seven years. Cumbie had produced a few good offenses, plus a robust protection in 2024, however final yr was the primary time each items thrived on the identical time.

Quarterback Blake Baker was stellar earlier than tearing his ACL, and Trey Kukuk, a much less profitable passer however glorious runner, led the Bulldogs to 3 straight wins on the finish of the season. Baker must be good to go this fall, and he’ll have sure-handed tight finish Eli Finley again. Last yr’s prime three wideouts are gone, however there’s an thrilling batch of potential new stars in Jay Wilkerson (20.2 yards per catch in 2024, injured final fall), sophomore slot Jalen Mickens, glorious punt returner Dedrick Latulas and transfers Talyn Shettron (Oklahoma State) and Marcus Calwise Jr. (Eastern Kentucky). No skilled working backs return, and switch Jaden Miller (Keiser) is taking a giant leap up in competitors after dashing for 1,127 yards in NAIA. But the road returns 5 gamers with beginning expertise, and new offensive coordinator Nathan Young ought to have the ability to lean on the move.

Cumbie has made two consecutive incredible defensive coordinator hires. Jeremiah Johnson was transformative in 2024, and when he left after only one season, Luke Olson came visiting from Jacksonville State and sustained all of Johnson’s features. The Bulldogs stopped 38.0% of opponents’ performs for zero or fewer yards (sixth in FBS), pressured 25 turnovers (ninth) and allowed touchdowns on simply 48.7% of crimson zone journeys (eleventh).

Olson misplaced a incredible playmaker in linebacker Mekhi Mason, however with linebackers Sifa Leota and Jadon Mayfield returning, together with ends Emmanuel Oguns and Donovan Rieman and a few massive tackles (plus 310-pound West Florida switch Justice Williams), there’s nonetheless motive for optimism within the entrance six. The secondary, nonetheless, is getting a complete makeover. Last yr’s prime 5 are gone, and whereas senior corners Amari Butler and Kameron Carter each thrived as backups, a quartet of transfers, together with safeties Ty Jones (Norfolk State) and MJ Moultrie II (Hampton), should ship at a excessive stage.

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A few breaks away from a run

• Head coach: Clay Helton (fifth yr, 27-25 general)

• 2026 projection: 103rd in SP+, 5.8 common wins (4.1 within the Sun Belt)

With the rising variety of challenges a Group of 6 head coach faces today — rising income disparities, infinite roster plucking — merely holding the fort is a stable accomplishment. In that regard, with bowl bids for 4 straight seasons, Clay Helton is doing tremendous at Georgia Southern.

Last yr featured some warning indicators, although. The Eagles wanted 4 one-score wins to eke out bowl eligibility, and towards 4 SP+ top-70 opponents they went 0-4 with a median rating of 45.3 to 13.5. The offense was stable, as has been typical below Helton and coordinator Ryan Aplin, however an extremely younger protection plummeted to one hundred and thirtieth in SP+.

Of the 15 returning defenders who noticed not less than 100 snaps in 2025, 10 are both sophomores or juniors, however Helton went forward and made a coordinator change, bringing in Mike Mutz, a former Georgia State assistant who led a dominant Stephen F. Austin protection final yr. Mutz will get all of final yr’s sophomores again (the most effective of the bunch: in all probability cornerback Jaquari Brown), however he’ll additionally work with 10 incoming transfers, together with edge rusher Anthony Bynum (Middle Tennessee), linebacker Rashon Myles Jr. (Abilene Christian) and corners Aaron Sears (Stephen F. Austin) and Noah Mangham (Abilene Christian).

On offense, we get to witness Max Johnson’s ultimate act. The former LSU and North Carolina quarterback has thrown for six,356 yards and 49 TDs over components of six seasons and is battling sophomores Turner Helton and Weston Bryan for the beginning job. The Eagles have averaged a stable offensive SP+ rating of 59.8 during the last 4 seasons, so whoever wins the job could have excessive expectations. They’ll even have a largely unproven supporting forged: No returnee began greater than twice final season, although receiver Josh Dallas and left sort out Caelan Williams, each injured final fall, have been stable in 2024. Transfers like guard Mo Clipper Jr. (12 begins at Charlotte) and receiver King Phillips (half of one mile at Texas A&M-Kingsville) could be probably the most confirmed items.

This appears like a “defense improves while offense regresses” scenario, however I just like the Mutz rent, and Aplin has a observe file.

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• Head coach: Dowell Loggains (second yr, 5-8 general)

• 2026 projection: 111th in SP+, 6.1 common wins (4.0 within the Sun Belt)

Sometimes even a fantastic soccer tradition like App State’s wants a refresh. After a 7-5 FBS debut in 2014, the Mountaineers started to make issues look very straightforward. That is now not the case.

2015-17: 30-9 file (0.769), 59.0 common SP+ rating
2018-21: 43-10 file (0.811), 27.8 common SP+ rating
2022-23: 15-11 file (0.577), 58.0 common SP+ rating
2024-25: 10-14 file (0.417), 105.5 common SP+ rating

Dowel Loggains took over after the Mountaineers stumbled in 2024, and his first yr was App’s worst in FBS. Year 2 encompasses a complete reset: Forty gamers transferred out, 36 transferred in, and solely two returnees — linebacker Colton Phares and left guard Cayden Sweatt — began greater than seven video games final fall.

The Mountaineers hadn’t ranked exterior the highest 70 in offensive SP+ since 2016 however plummeted to a hundred and first in 2025. Loggains will ask new faces to show that round — primarily offensive coordinator Mike Anthony and one among two switch quarterbacks, both junior Malachi Singleton (Purdue) or sophomore Henry Hasselbeck (UCLA). Anthony is a Kendal Briles protege, which hints at an offense constructed round tempo and a spread-out passing recreation. Singleton has averaged a stable 7.9 yards per dropback and eight.9 yards per (non-sack) carry at Arkansas and Purdue. Granted, that was largely in rubbish time, however the former blue-chipper has upside.

We’ll see in regards to the supporting forged. The most confirmed working again (Jaquari Lewis) is a sophomore, and probably the most confirmed move catcher (Chris Lofton) did his injury in FCS. The line does function 4 gamers with beginning expertise, plus three energy convention transfers and a Division II starter.

The protection can solely get a lot worse. Phares is a stable sideline-to-sideline man, and ends Aiden Benton and Caleb Sandstrom mixed for eight sacks final yr. But if enchancment comes, it can doubtless be pushed by newbies. In addition to mid-major veterans like linebacker Keshawn Thomas (ODU) and security Cary Grant (Charlotte), I like that Loggains nabbed fairly just a few productive underclassmen — guys with additional developmental potential — from the decrease ranges. My favorites: sort out Aaron Clark (Towson), linebacker/nickel Kevin Henderson (Findlay) and nook Josh Williams (Dayton).

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• Head coach: Major Applewhite (third yr, 11-14 general)

• 2026 projection: one hundred and fifteenth in SP+, 5.3 common wins (3.8 within the Sun Belt)

No crew displays the Sun Belt’s present “do fun, interesting things then get totally plucked apart” vibe like South Alabama. The Jaguars received 17 video games, with top-50 SP+ rankings, in every of Kane Wommack’s final two seasons in cost, however Wommack left to turn out to be Alabama’s defensive coordinator in 2024. In Major Applewhite’s first season as Wommack’s alternative, he generated a pleasant product from gamers like QB Gio Lopez (who left for North Carolina), RB Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State), OL Malachi Carney (Georgia Tech) and CB Lardarius Webb Jr. (Wake Forest). His reward was having to begin throughout.

Last season did not go almost as effectively: The Jaguars fell to 4-8 with their worst SP+ rating (114th) since 2019. And now turnover has struck once more. Granted, rating one hundred and fifth in returning manufacturing is just so unhealthy on this convention, and with Bishop Davenport, USA is extra confirmed at QB than most of its Sun Belt friends. But working again Kentrel Bullock and three of the highest 4 within the receiving corps are gone, and gamers liable for solely 18 of 60 O-line begins return. On protection, solely six of the 20 gamers with 200-plus snaps are again; nook Jayvon Henderson and out of doors linebacker Tirrell Johnson are stable, and if he is absolutely recovered from a foot damage, sophomore linebacker Caleb Dozier might be dynamite. But there are a great deal of holes to fill on the two-deep.

I have never talked about incoming transfers but as a result of there aren’t many. Big Shalik Hubbard (Monmouth) is straight away one of the crucial confirmed offensive linemen, defensive finish Mase Lewis (McNeese State) is an efficient playmaker for his measurement (6-foot-4, 278 kilos), and out of doors linebacker Seidrion Langston (Louisiana-Monroe) ought to assist. But whereas 27 transfers left Mobile, solely 11 got here in. If Applewhite is to proper the ship in 2026, he’ll do it with returnees and 9 jucos. The switch portal has provided groups a solution to preserve expertise ranges excessive, and it is due to this fact a threat (albeit an admirable one) to lean by yourself unproven expertise. If there are some extra Lopezes and Bothwells to be unearthed, possibly all the things works out. But these guys would’ve turn out to be useful final yr.

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• Head coach: Ryan Beard (first yr)

• 2026 projection: 119th in SP+, 5.2 common wins (3.2 within the Sun Belt)

It’s virtually not possible to regress for 5 consecutive years, however Coastal Carolina almost pulled it off. From 11-1 and seventeenth in SP+ in 2020, the Chanticleers have seen each their win proportion and SP+ rating fall in 4 of the final 5 seasons. They pulled off bowl eligibility final yr with a midseason four-game successful streak, however they beat just one crew ranked larger than 111th in SP+, and in 5 winless video games towards top-50 groups they have been demolished by a median of 48.6 to six.2. They averaged 38.3 factors per recreation towards bottom-20 defenses and simply 8.3 towards something higher. Firing head coach Tim Beck throughout a 3rd straight bowl season might need appeared slightly odd, however you may see the logic. The normal was slipping.

In response, Coastal principally imported Missouri State’s normal. Ryan Beard led MSU to a bowl in its first FBS season, and amongst his 41 incoming transfers are 12 former Bears. Quarterback Deuce Bailey, receiver Tristian Gardner and defensive linemen DJ Wesolak, Ahmad Poole and Mitchell Toney have been among the many Bears’ extra thrilling athletes final season, and Beard retained a few of Coastal’s extra explosive gamers, corresponding to working again Dominic Knicely, defensive finish Ibrahim Diawara, linebacker Tray Brown, nook Ja’Marion Wayne and security Myles Woods.

I feel there’s fairly a little bit of potential with the passing recreation: Either Bailey, Arkansas switch Trever Jackson, juco switch Tre Guerra or freshman super-athlete Osiris Lopez ought to present a reasonably excessive ceiling at QB, and along with Gardner, fellow transfers Clayton Coppock (Kennesaw State) and Goldie Lawrence (Florida A&M) are thrilling additions. Knicely and Rice switch Daelen Alexander might create a excessive ceiling at RB, too. And on protection, the entrance six appears to have a great deal of promise with Diawara, Brown and the Missouri State guys.

The offensive line and secondary are going to wish a number of assist from transfers — that is the way it works once you signal 41 of them — however there’s fairly a little bit of upside among the many newcomers. You cannot actually belief a program that has regressed so dramatically (and steadily), however I do see potential.

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Just searching for a path to 6-6

• Head coach: Blake Anderson (first yr, 0-1 general)

• 2026 projection: 131st in SP+, 2.8 common wins (1.7 within the Sun Belt)

It’s onerous to keep away from turning a few of these crew profiles into easy lists of transfers. It’s particularly onerous once you’re speaking a couple of crew that both simply employed, or simply misplaced, Charles Huff. He tends to go away city with a number of gamers in tow, and Southern Miss heads into 2026 with the worst returning manufacturing figures within the nation.

The offense returns one participant who began greater than twice, and solely one returning defender noticed greater than 40 snaps. Even by right now’s requirements, that is unimaginable turnover. I do recognize that a number of the finest transfers Blake Anderson introduced in are sophomores — working again Brandon Hood (UMass), receiver Jaylen Himes (Wingate), cornerback Kelby Hampton (New Hampshire), plus former blue-chippers like defensive finish Jeffery Rush (Ole Miss) and security Jordan Pride (Texas A&M). That’s at all times a hopeful signal from a developmental standpoint.

Hood and senior Robert Briggs might create a stable working again duo subsequent to the QB of selection — both 2025 backup Landry Lyddy, 2024 backup John White or Illinois switch Ethan Hampton. Another Illinois switch, receiver Mario Sanders, was a spring recreation star, and the protection has a reasonably enjoyable combination of measurement (4 incoming tackles are listed at 305 or heavier), athletic gamers transferring down from the facility conferences and skilled and productive gamers like linebacker Andrew Marton (Stetson), cornerback Hiroshi Carr (Morgan State) and safeties Landon Sylvie (Southeast Missouri) and Caleb Williams (Faulkner) transferring up. Still, with 21 new starters and a rent I actually did not like very a lot, it is onerous to really feel extremely assured.

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• Head coach: Bryant Vincent (third yr, 8-16 general)

• 2026 projection: 132nd in SP+, 2.6 common wins (1.7 within the Sun Belt)

Gravity is ruthless in Monroe. ULM’s 2024 season was encouraging: Bryant Vincent’s first Warhawks crew jumped from 2-10 to 5-7 with a sturdy bend-don’t-break protection and a brand new star in working again Ahmad Hardy. Hardy jumped to Missouri, however with a brand new crop of RB transfers and stable defensive expertise, there was motive for cautious optimism. Instead, a jumbled offensive line could not stop unfavourable performs, and solely three defenders managed to begin all 12 video games. After a 3-1 begin, ULM misplaced eight straight.

Experience ranges must be stable in 2026 so long as the damage bug does not chew as a lot. Quarterback Aidan Armenta and three of his prime 4 targets return, and whereas the RB corps acquired utterly worn out once more, I really like the addition of each former blue-chipper Don Chaney Jr. (Miami/Louisville) and Division II star Bryson Roland (Arkansas Tech). Vincent signed three switch tight ends, too, which suggests a want for extra physicality within the passing recreation. Meanwhile, seven linemen began not less than 4 video games final yr, and 4 return.

The protection is difficult to determine. The run protection was nonetheless respectable final yr, however the line misplaced eight of its prime 9 guys and solely added a few transfers. If the Warhawks in some way present resistance up entrance, the linebacking corps returns a stud in Noah Flemmings, and the secondary returns six of the 12 guys who began a recreation final yr. Safety Jabari Tiller made six TFLs, and incoming security Willie Wilson (American International) made 11.5 in Division III. There’s enjoyable disruption potential, however provided that the road is not a sieve.

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• Head coach: Dell McGee (third yr, 4-20 general)

• 2026 projection: 133rd in SP+, 2.7 common wins (1.3 within the Sun Belt)

As with ULM, cautious optimism turned to mud for Georgia State final season. Dell McGee prevented catastrophe in 2024 regardless of his late-in-the-cycle rent and a spring switch exodus, however apparently he solely delayed the downturn. Projected 111th in SP+, his Panthers have been within the 130s by the top of September and ended up 0-11 towards FBS opponents, staying inside one rating solely twice. The offense regressed below new coordinator Hue Jackson, and the protection collapsed to 134th in defensive SP+.

Predictably, it is reset time: Only 4 returnees began greater than 5 video games in 2025. But that features three massive, skilled offensive linemen, and a few of final yr’s extra encouraging gamers are again. Quarterback Cameran Brown is a enjoyable dual-threat who engineered a 25.3 PPG common in 4 late begins, sophomore tight finish Grant Hollier averaged 13.7 yards per catch, and sophomore nook Tyson McCrary has stable aggressiveness potential. McGee grabbed just a few former energy convention blue-chippers, however a 2026 rebound would require productive small-schoolers to turn out to be instant hits.

For what it is price, these small-schoolers have been fairly productive. McGee added quarterback Ayden Pereira (1,813 passing yards and 853 dashing yards at Merrimack), working backs Lanear McCrary Jr. (1,128 yards from scrimmage at Shorter) and Savion Hart (1,041 yards from scrimmage at Georgetown), defensive sort out Mandjou Berte (12.5 TFLs at Wingate), edge rusher Xavier Esquillen (11.5 sacks at Savannah State), security Deuce Lee (9 breakups at Monmouth) and nook Donovan Faria (6.5 TFLs, 4 passes defended at Gannon). Georgia State could have measurement, expertise and a very low bar. That’s not a horrible mixture.

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One massive anniversary

Twenty-five years in the past, the Sun Belt started sponsoring soccer. Long thought to be a house for pleasant hoops — keep in mind Cedric Maxwell? Chris Gatling? Gene Bartow? Old Dominion’s dominant ladies’s groups? — the Sun Belt took on a brand new identification after the waves of convention realignment within the early Nineties. After including new colleges (with soccer groups) like North Texas, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee to the roster alongside Arkansas State and Louisiana, the convention added Idaho and Louisiana-Monroe as football-only colleges and pieced collectively its first soccer providing in 2001. (From that authentic lineup, solely Arkansas State, Louisiana and ULM stay.)

The convention acquired an early increase from Middle Tennessee’s upset of Vanderbilt in Week 1, however Year 1 belonged to North Texas. Actually, your entire early 2000s did. The Mean Green misplaced their first-ever Sun Belt recreation to ULM, 19-17, however received 18 straight from there and took the primary 4 Sun Belt crowns. The Sun Belt title went by way of Denton at first. Now it goes by way of Harrisonburg.